People. Richard M. Vogel Tufts University Medford, MA. Workshop on Integrated Water Resources Planning an Management January 28-39, 2010

Transcription

1 Water and People Richard M. Vogel Medford, MA Workshop on Integrated Water Resources Planning an Management January 28-39, 2010

2 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People: Some Big Problems Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

3 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People: An Intro to some big problems Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

4 Water and People: Why do people know so little about water? Hydrologic science is an interdisciplinary science which involves the interfaces among earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. Hydrology is a geoscience Why isn t it taught like geology, biology, meteorology, or chemistry?

5 Water Problems are Human Problems Global Population Growth Population in Billions YEAR (AD)

6 Water Problems Result From Human Influences and they are Ramping Up

7 Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21 st Century Water and People Water Pollution and Water Scarcity

8 Water and People Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater

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10 Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty Income per capita Average income levels & irrigation intensity in India From U. Lall, Columbia Univ

11 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

12 Problems of groundwater quality Hundreds of thousand infants die of severe diarrhea in India every year, mostly from bacterial contamination of drinking water

13 Natural occurring flouride leads to human health risks Skeletal and dental FLUOROSIS due to excess fluoride in drinking water

14 Floride and Arsenic in South Asia Groundwater contaminated by rock - mineral water reactions. Districts affected 199 Fluorosis and Arsenicosis are debilitating (often fatal) conditions Arsenic: mostly South Asia Fluoride: More than 20 countries worldwide, but mainly South Asia and Africa 10-40% 40-70% % Not known After UNICEF

15 Water and Health Historical Information lessons we have forgotten

16 Water and Health US was once a developing country: death from diarrhea was common > 10% died before 1 year old

17 Water and Health Clusters of Cases of Cholera near Broad St. Well, Cholera Epidemic of London in 1854 John Snow, Led to new field of epidemiologydeath Rubbish Stink Thames in the 1840 s From Punch Magazine

18 US Cities Devoted Huge A Real Celebration! Resources to Clean Water First major public water supply celebration in Boston Common in 1848, drew 100,000 people and was declared a public holiday

19 Things are better 1900 on Life expectancy increased by 30+ years over the last 100 years. Water treatment, sewerage & safe food - 2/3rds of this increase. New medicines, intensive care, etc had little or no impact on overall lifespan. Reference: J. Griffiths, Tufts Univ, personal communciation, 2009

20 What did chlorination accomplish ? Decreased US cholera by 90% Decreased US typhoid by 80%

21 Chicago - Typhoid Remarkable declines in typhoid deaths when clean water and sewers were provided Ferrie, J.P., Troesken, W., Water and Chicago s mortality transition, , Explor. Econ. Hist. (2007). Typhoid Death Rates

22 Chicago All Deaths 1 Chicago river water intake moved several miles offshore 2 all sewage into Lake Michigan banned, intake further offshore 3 chlorination begun Ferrie, J.P., Troesken, W., Water and Chicago s mortality transition, , Explor. Econ. Hist. (2007) All deaths

23 Growth in Water Supply System

24 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

25 Decadal Flood Magnification Factors Sites With No Regulation From Yaindl and Vogel, 2009

26 Decadal Magnification Factors of Floods Sites w/ no regulation 1,642 of 14,893 USGS Gage Sites with M>1 and p>0.9 From Yaindl and Vogel, 2009

27 From Yaindl and Vogel, 2009 Decadal Flood Magnification Factors - HCDN Sites 208 of 1,588 HCDN Gage Sites with M>1 and p>0.9

28 Decadal Flood Magnification Factors Summary Magnitude of climate induced trends are minimal compared with other anthropogenic induced trends From Yaindl and Vogel, 2009

29 Water and Urbanization An Example Aberjona River, Massachusetts 24 sq. mi. urban catchment

30 Note how 100-year flood has steadily increased from one decade to the next due to increases in impervious areas NonExceedance Probability Increasing 100 year floods Variable Qpeak 1940s Qpeak 1950s-1960s Qpeak 1970s-1980s Qpeak 1990s Peak Flows (cfs) 1000

31 - All streamflows are influenced by urbanization. - Climate change played an insignificant role here Daily Streamflow (cfs) s-1950s 1960s-1970s 1980s-1990s ALL Flows Increased Exceedance Probability

32 We live in a watershed and we are part of the problem Land Management is Water Management

33 Urbanization Increases Flows in Rivers and Streams

34 How can we make residential developments function hydrologically like natural systems?

35 One Partial Remedy: Low Impact Development No curbs Bioretention No pipes No manholes Mimics Nature

36 CONCRETE LINED TRAPEZOIDAL FLOOD CONTROL CHANNEL TROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT Floodplain No Instream Habitat Value Bankfull Width Low Flow Channel

37 Designed by: James MacBroom VEGETATION LINED FLOOD CONTROL CHANNEL TROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT Vegetative Cover Instream Habitat & Low Flow Channel

38 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

39 Water and Climate Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

40 Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity. (UN Secretary General, November 2007) From IPCC Nov 2007

41 1978 Year 2008 Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein, 2008) Extent of Ice Cover (millions of sq. mi)

42 Glacial Melt Reduction in Long Term water storage and fluxes

43 Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability SPM Examples of human-induced climate change are now apparent on every continent USGS NASA NASA UK.gov National Park Service

44 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

45 From water shortage to food shortage Kenya drought: $2.4 billion in losses Every 5 seconds a child younger than ten dies of hunger

46 Why are Food and Water Related?

47 Water Scarcity and Food Scarcity are Related The driving forces are similar: Growing population Dietary changes Urbanization Conflicting needs for water Climate change impacts Biofuel production

48 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use

49 Blue versus Green Water Balancing Water for Humans and Nature, 2004 by M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström Blue Water Water in rivers and lakes Green Water Vertical fluxes such as evapotranspiration (evapotranspiration = evaporation and transpiration)

50 Blue-Green Water 65 % of the continental precipitation is green water, supporting terrestrial ecosystems, 35 % is blue water, supporting societal uses and aquatic ecosystems.

51 Blue-Green Water Traditionally water engineers have only managed blue water A major future challenge involves managing green water using: rainwater collection managing crop evapotranspiration land use management etc

52 Blue Water Green Water and Food 80% of global cropland is rainfed 60-70% of worlds food is produced on rainfed land In sub-saharan Africa food production depends on >95% green water

53 A Blue-Green Water Availability Index Based on work in progress at USGS and 2009

54 Fierce 260 international competition for basins: fresh water +/- tensions: may well become longstanding, a source of always, conflict growing & wars with in the demand future. Kofi Annan, March 2001 Grey & Sadoff

55 Human Water Use Conflicts The Colorado River Compact, 1922

56 Water and Human Water Use 2005 Headline

57 The Net Impact of Dams and Human Water Use Colorado River Delta Runs Dry From: Gleick, 2003, Science,Global Freshwater Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th Century.

58 South Africa Water Law

59 Groundwater Depletion Reduces Streamflow River and Well Hydrographs from North China Plain (from Konikow and Kendy, Groundwater depletion: A global problem, 2007)

60 Acceleration in annual global water withdrawals: % + 1.8% 1950 From Postel, 1992

61 The big squeeze on global water is expected to increase as Populations increase Incomes increase

62 A Global Water Crises By 2025 two thirds of the people in the world are expected to live in areas of water shortage or stress.

63 Virtual Water Water embedded in products Water used in production of product or service

64 Now a global issue: virtual water flows between world regions (average ) From Yang et al. unpublished; quoted in Zehnder

65 Ship Virtual Water? Exporting wheat to an arid country avoids need for water in that country 1 kg of wheat takes 1,000 liters of water to produce

66 Outline Emerging Issues: Water and People Water and Health Water and Urbanization Water and Climate Water and Food Water and Human Water Use Water: Systems, Science and Society