Bay Area, is now in agricultural production (see Figures 1 and 2). Oat hay and its fermented derivative,

Transcription

1 - Chapte 2 AGRCULTURE N THE NAPA MARSH AND TS MPACT ON THE NORTH BAY ECONOMY Deboah A. Reagan ntoduction Appoximately one half of the Napa Mash, once one of the lagest wetland systems in the San Fancisco Bay Aea, is now in agicultual poduction (see Figues 1 and 2). Oat hay and its femented deivative, oat silage, ae the majo poducts and ae puchased by local daiies and anches as a patial substitute fo the moe expensive alfalfa hay that cannot be gown locally (Goldman, 1977). These agicultual lands act as a buffe zone between esidential, commecial, and industial lands in Sonoma Valley and along Napa Mash aea Figue 1. San Fancisco Bay Aea (based on ABAG, 1978)

2 Hwy 29 Study Aea Figue 2. Napa Mash (based on Madone Associates, 1977). the Napa Ri e and the less-developed wetlands and sloughs bodeing San Pablo Bay (Madone Associates, 1977). n addition, these lands povide habitat fo a vaiety of esident bids, odents and eptiles. Some tacts of agicultual land in the Napa Mash ae subject to seasonal flooding and povide a tempoay habitat fo migatoy watefowl as well (Madone Associates, 1977). Within the last 20 yeas thee has been inceasing pessue to develop some of these agicultual lands fo esidential and commecial uses. Ubanization pessues ae geatest aound the magins of the mash because of thei poximity to tanspotation outes and uban centes. Most of the diked agicultual land, 18,711 aces, lies in Sonoma County, but one impotant 1600-ace agicultual tact emains in Solano County (BCDC, 1983). ^7 1

3 Histoically, management decisions fo wetlands have been made on the basis of what is most pofitable fo the owne (Batie and Shabman, 1982). Agicultual land in the Napa Mash is appaised at appoximately $600 pe ace, but it sells fo as high as $3,000 to $4,000 pe ace fo development puposes (Joan Vilms, pes. comm., 1985). These extemely inflated popety values can be a poblem fo fames in the mash because most of them lease thei land fom absentee landlods who often have little incentive to keep the land in agicultual poduction when offeed such lage sums (Madone Associates, 1977). An impotant issue that is often ovelooked in aguments concening convesion of agicultual lanas is the extent of contibution of the agicultual poducts to the local economy. The link between hay poduces in the Napa Mash and consumes in the suounding aea is well known qualitatively (BCDC, 1982; Goldman, 1977; Madone Associates, 1977). What is not well-documented is the quantitative value of the agicultual poducts of the Napa Mash to the consumes and dependent industies of the Noth Bay. Fo this study, the Noth Bay is defined as an aea encompassing Main, Napa, Solano and Sonoma counties (see Figue 1). This study attempts to tace the flow of agicultual poducts fom the Napa Mash and to assess thei impact on the Noth Bay economy. t focuses on the oat hay and silage poduced in two aeas of the mash that ae unde pessue fo futhe development (see Figue 2). The fist site is Cullinan Ranch in Solano County, lying noth of Highway 37 and west of Mae sland; a esidential poject has been poposed fo this site. The second aea is the diked land in Sonoma County lying noth of Highway 37 and east of Highway 121. This aea is coming unde inceasing pessue fo "pacelization," a pocess in which lage tacts of ual land ae subdivided into smalle pacels that ae pimaily used fo ual estates o "anchettes." Past Studies Only one study has been done that specifically focuses on the Napa Mash. Madone Associates (1977) includes a section on natual esouces and land use and one on conflicts between those who value the mash as a wetland and those who see the mash as potential site fo development. Goldman (1977) is a geneal input-output analysis of the Sonoma County economy with a valuable section on hayfaming. The fomat of the questionnaies used in the pesent epot ae based upon the ones found in Goldman (1977). Othe studies povide useful backgound mateial. San Fancisco Bay Consevation and Development Com mission (1982a, 1982b and 1983) contain figues and maps of the amount and location of diked baylands aound San Fancisco Bay. Goldman and Stong (1983) has an excellent discussion of altenative land man agement techniques that ae designed to encouage continued use of Sonoma County land fo agicultue. Finally, a valuable geneal epot on the need fo agicultual consevation in the Bay Aea is People fo Open Space (1980). "

4 Methodology The data in this study come fom questionnaies sent to fames owning o leasing land in the two study aeas. The fames wee initially contacted by telephone; an attempt was made to contact all of the known fames in the study aea. The data fom the questionnaies wee pooled and used to answe the following questions fo 1984 and 1985: What faction of the agicultual land in the Napa Mash was suveyed? What pecentage of the suveyed land was leased? How many aces wee devoted to oat hay poduction? What was the size of the havest? How many aces wee devoted to the poduction of oat silage? What was the size of the havest? How many aces wee devoted to the poduction of othe cops? How many tons of oat hay wee sold within the Noth Bay? Outside the Noth Bay? Not sold? How many tons of silage wee sold within the Noth Bay? Outside the Noth Bay? Not sold? To whom wee the oat hay and silage sold? The answes to these questions wee then extapolated to all of the agicultual land in the Napa Mash to estimate the contibution of the Napa Mash agicultual poducts to the Noth Bay. nfomation on the pice of oat hay was used to estimate the amount of income that it geneates. The pices of silage and alfalfa wee used to estimate the substitution value of silage fo alfalfa as a daiy feed. Results Thee was not a lage vaiation between the esults fo 1984 and Seven fams povided data fo Six of these seven fams also included data fo Compaison of the total aceage su veyed fo each yea with a Califonia Depatment of Fish and Game estimate of 20,881 total aces of agicultual land in the Napa Mash (Madone Associates, 1977), indicates that appoximately 50 pecent of the agicultual land in the Napa Mash was suveyed in both yeas. Table 1 illustates the diffeent uses of the suveyed land as well as the total numbe of aces suveyed. The most pevalent use fo bjth yeas was the poduction of oat hay. Othe uses of the su veyed land shifted in thei elative impotance between 1984 and Total Oat Hay Silaqe Othe Cops Fallow Numbe - Aces Numbe Pecent # «Suveyed Aces Aceaqe Aces % Aces Aces % ,310 8, ,770 8, , Table 1. Cop Aceage.

5 Table 2 pesents data on the amount of oat hay and silage poduced in 1984 and 1985 along with the aveage pice eceived pe ton fo these poducts. Table 2 also beaks down the aceage devoted to oat hay and silage poduction into the numbe of aces owned and the numbe of aces leased. Aces listed as fallow by the fames wee not included in the calculations. Oat hay and silage wee not the only agicultual poducts coming fom the mash; othe cops such as wheat, soghum and gapes ae gown thee as well. Howeve, these cops wee not quantitatively investigated in this study. _. 1 Numbe Aces Pecent Aceage Size of Havest Pice Rec'd (pe ton) Tons Ace owned leased (tons) 1984 oat hay silage 1985 oat hay silage 1, ,350 7, ,875 4,200 18,730 13,000 S55 $15 S55 $ Table 2. Oat hay and silage poduction. - Table 3 details the distibution of oat hay and silage among vaious goups in the Noth Bay. All of the figues epesent diect puchases fom the fame. Daiies and wholesale bokes ae the two goups that make the lagest diect puchases fom haygowes in the Napa Mash. Cattle anches and.hose anches also buy significant amounts of oat hay diectly fom haygowes. Feed stoes, pimaily etail outlets that do not sell in bulk quantities, do not buy as much oat hay fom hay gowes. nstead they buy a lage amount of thei oat hay fom the bokes. Ove 99 pecent of the oat hay was eithe sold to consumes in the Noth Bay o used on-fam in n 1985, this figue inceased to 100 pecent. All of the silage fom both 1984 and 1985 was used within the Noth Bay. Daiies' Cattle Ranches Hose Ranches Feed Stoes Bokes Not Sold Numbe Tons Puchased Pecent Total Poduction Tons Tons Tons a Tons V 3 Tons 1984 oat hay silage 1985 oat hay silage 6,780 4,200 6,360 8, , , , , , , , , , , Table 3. Puchases of oat hay and silage by consume goup.

6 Multiplying the numbe of tons of oat hay actually sold by the pice eceived pe ton gives the amount of income geneated by oat hay sales fo a paticula yea. Thus, $918,500 of income was gen eated in 1984 and appoximately $907,200 of income was geneated in These figues do not include tanspotation costs that ae aound $10 to $12 pe ton. Extapolation of the data to the entie Napa Mash equies the multiplication of the above numbes by a facto of 2 because, as stated ealie, appoximately one half of the Napa Mash agicul tual land was suveyed in each yea. Pefoming this extapolation esults in appoximately $1,840,000 and $1,810,000 of income geneated in 1984 and 1985, espectively. t is moe difficult to extapolate the amount of income that oat silage geneates diectly because much of it neve leaves the fam. Howeve, its value as a substitute feed fo alfalfa is impotant to the daiy industy and is somewhat easie to estimate. Based on infomal convesations with seveal daiymen, it was detemined that the amount of alfalfa feed a lactating cow equies vaies but is appoximately 6 to 7 tons pe yea. Alfalfa pices fluctuate thoughout the yea; the quoted pice in Febuay 1986 was $140 pe ton, cubed and deliveed to Sonoma County (Califonia Alfalfa Cube Co., 1986). n compaison, the oat silage sold fo about $15 pe ton (plus tanspotation costs), and it can substitute fo up to 70 pecent of the alfalfa needs of a daiy cow. Discussion One of the most unexpected esults of this study is the discovey that all of the oat hay and silage poduced in the suveyed aea was eithe sold o used within the Noth Bay. Aside fom the eduction in tanspotation costs associated with puchasing locally-gown hay, the money spent on local hay emains in the Noth Bay longe than if it wee spent on impoted hay. The fact that the agicultual poducts fom the Napa Mash ae also being used within the Noth Bay tends to einfoce the links between the industies and consume goups indicated in Figue 3. not sold feed StO K5» \ V uiuks ^ haygowes cattle <> - anches daiies^- - J * hose <-"\ anches i J Figue 3. Flow of Hay fom Poduce to Consume.

7 Convesations with vaious feed stoes and bokes indicate that bokes sell at both the wholesale and etail level. Bokes buy Napa Mash oat hay fom both fames and othe bokes. They then sell this hay to feed stoes as well as selling some hay diectly to consumes such as daiies, cattle anches and hose anches. The atio of feed stoe sales to consume-diect sales fo a boke vaied widely m and depended upon the company contacted. Anothe supising statistic is the amount of oat hay and silage that neve leaves the fam. Seveal of the fames suveyed ae also daiymen and thei pimay pupose in faming is to povide feed fo thei heds. The figues in the last column of Table 3 eflect this use of oat hay and silage. This dichotomy between haygowes and daiymen/haygowes is impotant. A haygowe's pimay pupose in poducing oat hay is to sell it and make a pofit. A daiyman/haygowe's pimay pupose in gowing oat hay is to povide feed fo his hed. Since oat hay has little nutitional value fo a lactating cow, a daiyman/ haygowe usually ensiles as much of his cop as possible. Thus, the silage statistics ae especially impotant because of silage's value as a substitute fo alfalfa. Since silage costs so much less than alfalfa hay, one might wonde why moe daiies don't use as much silage as possible. Thee ae seveal easons why silage is not a widely maketed poduct. The main poblem is that silage is extemely difficult to move. Silage is 65 pecent wate (Rick Bennett, pes. comm., 1986), which makes it extemely heavy, and theefoe expensive, to tanspot. Silage also spoils quickly once the silo is opened. Theefoe, lage quantites of silage cannot be economically - moved and e-stoed. Lack of quality contol and consistency in silage poduction used to be a poblem, but is now of lesse impotance with the impovement of silo constuction and ensiling techniques (Woolfod, 1981). A potentially seious theat to agicultue in the Napa Mash is the lage amount of land that is leased fom absentee landlods. While much of this land is cuently unde Williamson Act contacts and theefoe potected fom futhe development, this does not guaantee that the land will always emain " in agicultual poduction. A contact may be cancelled at any time, and the land can then be sold nine yeas late (BCDC, 1982). As the pofitability of development in the Napa Mash inceases, so might the ate of cancellation of Williamson Act contacts. Subsequent convesion of the agicultual land to moe intensive uses would then be pobable, especially if the owne had oiginally puchased the land fo speculative puposes. Thus, if agicultual land in the Napa Mash is lost to moe intensive development, it is easy to see that many industies and consume goups would be affected. The goup that would be most affected, othe than the haygowes themselves, would be the daiies. Smalle daiies could be foced out of business because of the inceased costs associated with impoting feed to eplace that which was fomely puchased locally. Since Noth Bay daiies povide about 50 pecent of the milk and milk poducts consumed in the Bay Aea (BCDC, 1982), the loss of some daiies and inceased costs at othes would almost cetainly

8 esult in highe daiy poduct pices thoughout the Bay Aea. The othe goups dependent on local hay (see Figue 3) would also expeience highe costs, and pehaps in some cases, bankuptcy. A eduction in the amount of local hay and silage would mean that moe money fomely spent locally would be spent outside the Noth Bay. One of the esults would be a decease in the amount of sales tax evenues to Noth Bay counties. Development poponents often ague that esidential develop ments geneate moe sales tax and popety tax evenues pe ace than agicultual land. Howeve, they do not mention that esidential developments also have highe public sevice and infastuctue costs pe ace than agicultual land. These public costs would be an additional buden to counties aleady stuggling to cope with the lage gowth ates of the past seveal yeas. Conclusion t has become evident in this study that the continued convesion of diked baylands that ae in agicultual use to moe intensive uses will have both diect and indiect impacts upon the Noth Bay economy. Measues need to be taken to assue that adequate land will emain in agicultual poduction so that the advese impacts discussed in the pevious section can be avoided. Such measues could include sticte enfocement of existing zoning, establishing agicultual disticts o "peseves," implementing an income tax cedit system, o ceation of a puchase of development ights pogam (see Goldman and Stong, 1983, fo a moe detailed discussion of these policies). A fiscal analysis should be done on both an inta-county and egional scale. With this additional infomation, a cleae "dollas and cents" agument could be made fo the pesevation of famland on the diked baylands of the Napa Mash. REFERENCES ABAG, Envionmental management plan: wate quality poblems in the San Fancisco egion; San Fancisco, map. Batie, S.B., and L.A. Shabman, Estimating the economic value of wetlands: pinciples, methods, and limitations; Coastal Zone Management Jounal, v. 10, no. 3, pp BCDC, 1982(a). Diked histoic baylands of San Fancisco Bay; staff epot; San Fancisco, 21p., 1982(b). Diked histoic baylands of San Fancisco Bay: findings, policies, and maps; San Fancisco, 25p., Agicultual values of diked histoic baylands; San Fancisco, 8p. Bennett, Rick. Fam Adviso, Univesity of Califonia Coopeative Extension, Santa Rosa, CA. Pesonal communication, Febuay 25, Califonia Alfalfa Cube Co., Chowchilla, CA. Pesonal communication, Febuay 25, Goldman, Geoge E., Sonoma County: a famewok fo impact analysis; Univesity of Califonia, Division of Agicultual Sciences, Special Pub Goldman, Geoge E., and David Stong, Land use planning fo Sonoma County agicultue; Univesity of Califonia, Coopeative Extension Sevice, 41p.

9 i Madone Associates, The natual esouces of the Napa Mash; Coastal Wetland Seies #19, Califonia Depatment of Fish and Game, 97p. People fo Open Space, Endangeed havest: the futue of Bay Aea famland; San Fancisco, 79p. Vilms, Joan, Executive Diecto, Sonoma Land Tust, Santa Rosa, CA. Novembe 15, Pesonal communication, Woolfod, Michael K., The silage fementation; New Yok, Macel Dekke, nc., 350p.