Land Economics 94:3, August 2018 District Subdivision and the Location of Smallholder Forest Conversion in Sumatra by Marc N. Conte and Philip Shaw

Transcription

1 APPENDIX B Figure 1: This figure illustrates the location of the 13,025 pixels located in the Sumatran Provinces of Jambi, Riau, and West Sumatra that were utilized in this analysis. The districts with the stippling were subdivided following the end of Suharto s reign and prior to the year The non-stippled districts maintained their boundaries following the end of Suharto s reign.

2 Figure 2: Impact of forest edge distance on estimated marginal effect Figure 3: Impact of road distance on estimated marginal effect.

3 Figure 4: Model specificity and sensitivity for nonparametric model. Figure 5: Model specificity and sensitivity for spatial linear probability model. Figure 6: Model specificity and sensitivity for logit model.

4 Table 1: P-values under different null models: P-values under H0: H0: Logistic Model Non-subdivided 0 0 H0: Multinomial Logistic Model Non-subdivided 0 0 H0: SAR LPM Non-subdivided Notes: P-values under H0 : Pr[ϕ(R = k X = x) = ϕ(r = k X = x, β)] = 1 for some β Ω. Table 2: Impact of a one standard deviation change in a X variable on conversion probability relative to σ y and its relative impact. Variable Impact Impact Non-subdivided Relative Impact Forest Edge Distance (km) *** 0.085*** 5.68*** Road Distance (km) *** 4.82 Protected Area *** 0.019*** 17.14*** Notes: The impact is defined as I i σ ˆ xθ for i=, N with the relative impact given by RI= I. i N = σ I y Table 3: Impact of a one standard deviation change in a X variable on conversion probability relative to unconditional conversion probability (µ y ) and its relative impact. Variable Impact Impact Non-subdivided Relative Impact Forest Edge Distance (km) 0.176*** 0.736*** 4.19*** Road Distance (km) *** 3.55 Protected Area 0.013*** 0.164*** 12.64*** Notes: The impact is defined as I i σ ˆ xθ for i=, N with the relative impact given by RI= I. i N = µ I y

5 Robustness Checks Table 4: Nonparametric Results for Determinants of Smallholder Forest Conversion Within 5 km of Border Independent Variable ˆ θˆ θˆ N θ θn Elevation (10s m) ***.0062*** (.00029) (.0024) (.0024) Slope * (.00036) (.00015) (.00039) Square-root Soil Depth (0) (0) (0) Precipitation (0) (.00012) (.00012) Forest Edge Distance *.007* (0) (.0036) (.0036) Road Distance ***.0047** (.0017) (.00069) (.0019) Settlement Distance * ** Town Distance (.0029).002** (.0014) (.00067) ** (.0001) ˆ (.003).0022** (.0014) Protected Area ***.051*** (0) (.0087) (.0087) Province Indicators Yes Yes Yes District Indicators No No No Observations Notes: The binary dependent variable takes on a value of 1 if the pixel is converted from forest to smallholder production (mixed agriculture, palm oil, rubber, with plasma oil palm production excluded) between 2000 and The unit of observation is a 30-meter by 30-meter pixel. Average marginal effects, based on evaluations of each φˆ function on all 13,025 pixels, reported. 1 km clustered, bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses. The difference column reports ˆ θ ˆ θ with the bootstrapped standard errors in N parentheses. One, two, and three stars indicate 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent significance levels, respectively.

6 Table 5: Test Results for Group Unconfoundedness by km Grouping km τˆ km τˆ [-0.061, 0.045] [-0.051, ] [-0.027, 0.028] [-0.036, 0.013] [-0.022, 0.028] [-0.042, ] [-0.021, 0.031] [-0.044, ] [-0.099, 0.02] [-0.037, 0.009] [-0.091, 0.013] [-0.045, ] [-0.097, ] [-0.044, ] [-0.05, ] [-0.052, ] [-0.042, ] [-0.065, ] [-0.045, ] [-0.065, ] Notes: The binary dependent variable takes on a value of 1 if the pixel is converted from forest to smallholder production (mixed agriculture, palm oil, rubber, with plasma oil palm production excluded) between 2000 and The unit of observation is a 30-meter by 30-meter pixel. The observed difference between each group is reported as τˆ along with the 95% confidence interval in brackets below the observed difference.

7 Table 6: Normalized Differences Full Sample Non- Normalized Difference Within 5 km of Border Non- Normalized Difference Elevation (9.64) (14.73) (12.50) (14.31) Slope (4.21) (6.58) (5.18) (7.27) Soil Depth ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Precipitation (154.55) (151.79) (173.58) (151.91) Forest Edge Distance (Km) (2.03) (1.25) (1.54) (1.18) Road Distance (Km) (4.37) (5.78) (4.56) (4.98) Town Distance (Km) (26.92) (47.70) (8.75) (8.39) Settlement Distance (Km) (9.53) (8.77) (33.20) (25.62) Protected Area (0.31) (0.38) (0.45) (0.42) Notes: The normalized difference is the difference in means for an observable pixel characteristic between subdivided and nonsubdivided districts, divided by the square root of the sum of the variances across both district types (Rosenbaum and Rubin1985; Stuart 2010). The comparison of the normalized differences of our observable characteristics shows that they are quite similar in both the full sample and the sample of pixels within five kilometers of a district with the other subdivision status (Imbens and Wooldridge 2009; Rubin, 2001).

8 Parametric Results Table 7: Logit Results for Determinants of Smallholder Forest Conversion Independent Variable ˆ θˆ θˆ N θ θn Elevation (10s m) *** (.001) *** (.0004) ** (.001) Slope *** (.0014) (.00093) (.0016) Square-root Soil Depth *** * Precipitation ( ).00022*** ( ) ( ) *** (.00001) ˆ ( ).00018** ( ) Forest Edge Distance -.046*** -.044*** (.0072) (.011) (.013) Road Distance **.0046** (.0016) (.0014) (.0022) Settlement Distance Town Distance (.0005).00033* (.00019) (.00065) * (.00015) (.00082).00059** (.00024) Protected Area -.042*** *** (.0057) (.012) (.014) Province Indicators Yes Yes Yes District Indicators Yes Yes Yes Observations 9,192 3,258 Notes: The binary dependent variable takes on a value of 1 if the pixel is converted from forest to smallholder production (mixed agriculture, palm oil, rubber, with plasma oil palm production excluded) between 2000 and The unit of observation is a 30-meter by 30-meter pixel. Average marginal effects, based on evaluations of each φˆ function on all 13,025 pixels, reported. 2 km clustered, bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses. The difference column reports ˆ θ ˆ θ with the bootstrapped standard errors in parentheses. One, two, N and three stars indicate 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent significance levels, respectively.

9 Table 8: Multinomial Logit Results for Determinants of Smallholder Forest Conversion θˆ Independent Variable Mixed Oil Rubber Plasma Mixed Oil Rubber Plasma Mixed Oil Rubber Plasma Elevation (10s m) *** *** *** ** * (.00026) (.00091) (.00045) (.00032) (.00033) (.00061) ( ) (.00022) (.00042) (.0011) (.00045) (.00037) Slope ** *** (.00037) (.0011) (.00085) (.00042) (.0007) (.0013) (.0002) (.00043) (.00078) (.0018) (.00086) (.00063) Square-root Soil Depth *** ** * * ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Precipitation *** * *** * ** * *** *.00028*** *** (.00001) ( ) (.00003) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (.00003) ( ) Forest Edge Distance *** *** -.03*** ** -.016*** -.025** -.005*** *** ** -.025***.0048 (.003) (.0033) (.0073) (.0025) (.0082) (.028) (.0025) (.0076) (.0087) (.028) (.0079) (.008) Road Distance * *** *** ** (.00038) (.0011) (.0014) (.00052) (.0024) (.0026) (.00034) (.00082) (.0024) (.0028) (.0014) (.00099) Settlement Distance ***.0014*** *** *** ** *** (.00013) (.00036) (.00041) (.00032) (.0005) (.0009) (.00017) (.00029) (.00052) (.00097) (.00044) (.00044) Town Distance * **.00034*** *** *** ( ) (.00014) (.00012) ( ) ( ) (.00013) ( ) ( ) (.00012) (.00019) (.00013) (.00011) Protected Area *** -.017*** *** ** -.018***.011** (.0049) (.0042) (.0038) (.0073) (.015) (.055) (.0035) (.0023) (.015) (.055) (.0052) (.0076) Province Indicators Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes District Indicators Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Observations 9,192 9,192 9,192 9,192 3,258 3,258 3,258 3,258 Notes: The dependent variable takes on a value of 1 if the pixel is converted from forest to mixed agriculture, 2 if the pixel is converted from forest to palm oil, 3 if the pixel is converted from forest to rubber, and 4 if the pixel is converted from forest to plasma oil palm between 2000 and The unit of observation is a 30-meter by 30-meter pixel. Average marginal effects,based on evaluations of each φˆ function on all 13, 025 pixels, reported. 2 km clustered, bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses. The difference columns report θ N One, two, and three stars indicate 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent significance levels, respectively. θˆ N ˆ θ ˆ θ N ˆ θ ˆ with the bootstrapped standard errors in parentheses.

10 Table 9: SAR LPM (k = 2) Results for Determinants of Smallholder Forest Conversion Independent Variable θˆ θˆ N ˆ θ ˆ θ N Elevation (10s m) *** *** (.00063) (.00052) (.00082) Slope ***.003** (.00077) (.00089) (.0012) Square-root Soil Depth *** ( ) ( ) ( ) Precipitation.00017***.00017*** ( ) ( ) ( ) Forest Edge Distance *** **.0022 (.0016) (.0033) (.0037) Road Distance.0019*** (.0007) (.00091) (.0012) Settlement Distance (.00026) (.00051) (.00057) Town Distance ** ( ) (.00009) (.00017) (.00019) Protected Area -.037***.025* (.01) (.014) (.017) ρˆ ** (.23) (.13) (.26) Province Indicators Yes Yes Yes District Indicators Yes Yes Yes Observations 9,192 3,258 Notes: The binary dependent variable takes on a value of 1 if the pixel is converted from forest to smallholder production (mixed agriculture, palm oil, rubber, with plasma oil palm production excluded) between 2000 and The unit of observation is a 30-meter by 30- meter pixel. The reported coefficients are based on evaluations of each φˆ function on all 13, 025 pixels. Asymptotic standard errors are reported in parentheses. The difference column reports ˆ θ ˆ θ N with the bootstrapped standard errors in parentheses. One, two, and three stars indicate 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent significance levels, respectively.

11 Bandwidth selection Table 10: Optimal bandwidths for binary and multinomial nonparametric models. Binary Multinomial Variable Non-subdivided Non-subdivided Conversion Elevation (10s m) 5.88E Slope (percent) 1.49E Square-root Soil Depth (mm) Precipitation (km) Forest Edge Distance (km) Road Distance (km) Settlement Distance (km) Town Distance (km) Notes: The bandwidths are chosen for the binary nonparametric model excluding plasma production and the multinomial nonparametric model including plasma production. Bandwidths for the other models under consideration are available upon request.