Global Sugar Consumption Expands While Production Stagnates

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Sugar: World Markets and Trade Global Sugar Consumption Expands While Production Stagnates 180 Million Metric Tons, Raw Value Production Consumption / / / / / /15 F Global sugar production for 2014/15 is forecast flat at 176 million metric tons (raw value) as a reduction in Brazil is mostly offset by growth in India. With abundant supplies continuing to weigh on the market, global consumption is forecast to rise as demand in India and China expand. Trade is down slightly as lower exports from Brazil and Mexico are only somewhat offset by Thailand. For an subscription, click here to register: Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

2 Page /15 Sugar Overview United States production is forecast unchanged from last year at 7.7 million tons. Consumption continues to rise, while imports of 2.8 million tons are forecast down 200,000 tons. Stocks are forecast at just under 1.0 million tons. Imports under the tariff rate quota assume minimum U.S. commitments to import raw and refined sugar. On May 9, 2014, the United States International Trade Commission determined that imports of sugar from Mexico have injured or threatened to injure U.S. sugar producers. As a result, the United States Department of Commerce will continue to investigate anti-dumping and countervailing duty margins, with a preliminary decision on subsidies expected in June, 2014, and a preliminary decision on dumping in September, These deadlines can be extended in special circumstances. Brazil s production is forecast to ease 1.0 million tons to 36.8 million as drought conditions lower yield. Consumption is expected to increase slightly reflecting population growth and expansion in the food processing sector. Exports are forecast down 1.0 million tons to 25.3 million on lower exportable supply. Thailand s production is projected to decline 400,000 tons to 11.0 million as yield returns to normal, more than offsetting an increase in area. Consumption continues to trend higher, driven by rising household and industrial use. Exports are forecast to jump to a record 8.3 million tons based on growing Asian demand, particularly from Indonesia and Cambodia. Exports will likely benefit from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Community Agreement. India s production is expected to increase nearly 900,000 tons to 27.9 million due to increased yield as consumption is forecast to continue rising. Exports are forecast to fall to 1.5 million tons to meet domestic demand. European Union s production is forecast at 16.3 million tons up 200,000 on both increased sugar beet area and yield. As consumption continues to trend higher, imports are forecast to grow by 250,000 tons to 3.8 million tons. Exports remain at 1.5 million tons, limited by the sugar export ceiling in the World Trade Organization. China s production is projected at 13.7 million tons, down 600,000 on lower yield. Rising consumption, which outpaces production, and lower imports are expected to drawdown stocks. Million Metric Tons, Raw Value China Draws Down Stocks to Meet Demand / / / /15F Production Imports Consumption Ending Stocks

3 Page 3 Mexico s production is forecast slightly higher at 6.9 million tons, while consumption remains virtually unchanged for a third consecutive year. Exports are forecast down nearly 400,000 tons to 2.2 million. Russia s production is expected to remain at 4.4 million tons as an increase in area is offset by reduced yield. Consumption and imports are forecast down slightly. Revised 2013/14 from November forecast: - Global production is up slightly (877,000 tons) to million. o India is revised up 1.6 million tons to 27.0 million on higher yield. o Brazil is lowered 950,000 tons to 38.8 million as more sugar cane is used for ethanol. - Global imports are lowered 2.1 million tons to 50.0 million. o India is down 1.7 million tons as imports drop to 100,000 on increased available supplies to meet domestic demand. o Iraq is lowered 700,000 tons to 300,000 on weaker demand. o China is revised up 1.1 million tons to 3.9 million on growing demand. For further information, please contact Reed Blauer at (202) or Reed.Blauer@fas.usda.gov

4 World Centrifugal Sugar 1,000 Metric Tons, Raw Value 2009/ / / / /14 May 2014/15 Production Brazil 36,400 38,350 36,150 38,600 37,800 36,800 India 20,637 26,574 28,620 27,337 27,045 27,900 European Union 16,897 15,939 18,320 16,655 16,100 16,300 China 11,429 11,199 12,341 14,001 14,346 13,700 Thailand 6,930 9,663 10,235 10,024 11,390 11,000 United States 7,224 7,104 7,700 8,148 7,693 7,706 Mexico 5,115 5,495 5,351 7,393 6,731 6,890 Pakistan 3,420 3,920 4,520 5,000 5,215 4,860 Australia 4,700 3,700 3,683 4,250 4,300 4,400 Russia 3,444 2,996 5,545 5,000 4,400 4,400 Guatemala 2,340 2,048 2,499 2,778 2,852 2,850 Indonesia 1,910 1,770 1,830 2,300 2,300 2,500 Philippines 1,800 2,520 2,400 2,400 2,450 2,500 South Africa 2,265 1,985 1,897 2,020 2,425 2,500 Colombia 2,294 2,280 2,270 1,950 2,300 2,300 Turkey 2,530 2,274 2,262 2,130 2,300 2,300 Egypt 1,820 1,830 1,980 2,000 2,013 2,050 Argentina 2,230 2,030 2,150 2,300 1,780 2,000 Ukraine 1,382 1,540 2,300 2,400 1,300 1,600 Vietnam 980 1,240 1,400 1,600 1,650 1,600 Other 17,621 17,483 18,713 19,200 19,313 19,433 Total 153, , , , , ,589 Human Dom. Consumption India 22,500 23,050 24,180 25,000 26,000 27,000 European Union 17,610 18,040 18,200 18,250 18,300 18,500 China 14,300 14,000 14,200 15,100 16,500 17,400 Brazil 11,800 12,000 11,500 11,200 11,260 11,355 United States 9,861 10,171 10,106 10,421 10,523 10,614 Indonesia 4,700 5,000 5,050 5,400 5,700 5,900 Russia 5,700 5,523 5,700 5,700 5,600 5,500 Mexico 4,615 4,142 4,288 4,544 4,564 4,564 Pakistan 4,100 4,250 4,300 4,400 4,450 4,500 Egypt 2,629 2,800 2,850 2,840 2,870 2,910 Other 56,566 56,492 58,807 61,654 61,719 62,285 Total 154, , , , , ,528 Ending Stocks India 6,223 6,299 7,163 11,068 10,413 9,813 China 2,355 1,621 4,140 6,793 8,494 8,049 Thailand 2,343 2,983 2,810 3,616 4,906 4,906 European Union 1,433 1,974 3,303 3,981 3,781 3,831 Indonesia ,264 1,614 Pakistan 830 1,470 1, ,134 1,104 Mexico ,024 1,548 1,004 1,004 United States 1,359 1,250 1,795 1,957 1, Philippines Guatemala Other 10,654 11,142 11,766 11,970 11,636 11,561 Total 28,032 29,208 34,949 43,978 45,515 44,441

5 World Centrifugal Sugar: Imports and Exports 1,000 Metric Tons, Raw Value 2009/ / / / /14 May 2014/15 Exports Brazil 24,300 25,800 24,650 27,650 26,200 25,250 Thailand 4,930 6,642 7,898 6,693 7,500 8,300 Australia 3,600 2,750 2,800 3,100 3,190 3,300 Mexico 751 1, ,090 2,543 2,158 Guatemala 1,815 1,544 1,619 1,911 1,950 1,950 European Union 2,647 1,113 2,343 1,662 1,500 1,500 India 225 3,903 3, ,800 1,500 South Africa ,000 Cuba United Arab Emirates 673 1, Other 8,099 8,343 8,885 9,548 8,945 8,733 Total 48,332 53,857 54,980 54,490 55,913 55,241 Imports European Union 2,561 3,755 3,552 3,935 3,500 3,750 Indonesia 3,200 3,082 3,027 3,570 3,785 3,750 China 1,535 2,143 4,430 3,802 3,900 3,300 United States 3,010 3,391 3,294 2,924 3,025 2,806 United Arab Emirates 2,100 1,969 2,154 2,533 2,250 2,250 Malaysia 1,527 1,813 1,720 1,916 1,985 2,000 Korea, South 1,617 1,688 1,668 1,806 1,905 1,950 Algeria 1,260 1,193 1,594 1,933 1,850 1,850 Bangladesh 1,361 1,537 1,700 1,547 1,830 1,850 Iran 1,643 1,292 1,081 1,555 1,505 1,550 Nigeria 1,431 1,495 1,399 1,450 1,470 1,470 Japan 1,199 1,331 1,230 1,330 1,365 1,390 Saudi Arabia 1,277 1,173 1,454 1,355 1,230 1,250 Egypt 978 1,120 1,480 1,050 1,208 1,220 Canada 1,114 1,135 1,103 1,156 1,153 1,160 Russia 2,223 2, ,150 1,100 Sudan Morocco Venezuela Yemen Other 17,341 15,772 14,105 15,816 14,050 13,991 Total 48,317 49,275 48,454 51,697 50,481 50,037