Human Diet, Health and Nutrition

Transcription

1 Content UK Food Consumption and Production A marketing perspective 1. Supertanker Trends 2. Macro-Economic Issues 3. A Real Life Problem Horsegate 4. Where to From Here?...a little bit of marketing 5. Conclusions Chris Lamb 9 th November 2013 A Level Food Students Kings College, London Supertanker Trends Human diet, health and nutrition Sustainability & ethics Demand Human Diet, Health and Nutrition We are Fatter Than Ever Before Rate of obesity (see notes for definition) 2013 nvision forecast based on latest available data Obese-Biggest Biases Towards Worst Nutrients Obese - Biggest biases towards worst nutrients Spend Packs Energy kcal Protein g Fibre g Carbohydrate g Sugars g Fat g Saturates g Salt equiv. Source: Health Survey for England, Department of Health/nVision Base: 7,008 individuals aged 16+, England, 2011 Obese (BMI) - Index of volume purchased vs Households 52we May 21st 2007 GBCC

2 Healthy Diets vs Healthy Foods Overweight consumers frequently High red meat consumption High salt consumption High sugar consumption Lifestyle issues frequently outweigh individual components Nutritional Value of Food Long Term Trend Nutritional value of food long term trend Intake per person per day calories and fat all food consumption (includes restaurant/take-away food & snacks, excludes all alcoholic & non-alcoholic beverages Calories Fat (grams) Source: Family Food, National Statistics/nVision Base: GB 18138: Changing Dietary Habits 1995 Long Term Trend % 34% HEALTH BSE, Foot & Mouth, Sudan 1, Child Obesity, Jamie Oliver, Bird Flu, Supersize me, Salt & sugar content, Functional Foods, 5 a day, Fruit for schools ENJOYMENT Organics/ premium, Taste the difference, Sharing, Cafe culture, Eating out, Debit Credit, Treating 22% 40% Sustainability and Ethics 55% PRACTICALITY Ready Meals, Light meals, Snacking, Budget, Microwave, Individual portions, Quick to cook 38% % Servings In Home / Lunchbox Consumption 12 m/e May 2011 Once upon a time people who cared about the environment looked like this. And they ate brown rice, nut loaf and all things Vegan. They wore sandals made from straw and always wore them with socks 83 Foresight Report: A Global Perspective But times have changed and they are more likely to look like this. Proportion of consumers who say that environmental concerns together with concerns for health and farming methods influence their food purchasing 30% of adults W orldpanel TM division of TNS

3 Biodiversity: Transforming the market for commodities which threaten the worlds most bio-diverse places From a Climate Perspective Evidence Points to the Need to Reduce Emissions From Across the Food Chain ~30% greenhouse gas emissions come directly or indirectly from food systems (EU) 56% of direct emissions are from primary production (UK) (predominantly nitrous oxides and methane) 58% of agricultural emissions are from animal products (UK) Climate Change New words to describe the development and direction of the food industry Global and carbon footprints Food miles Seasonality and recycling Local produce and distribution Wholefoods Fairtrade and fair deal Waste Climate Change Will consumers change their consumption habits? Need solutions, not problems Providing solutions and mitigating the effects is new competitive battleground for; Political parties Retailers Food manufacturers Which, if any, of the following actions would you be prepared to take to reduce your own Co2 emission? Consumer Challenges Extensive production = natural lower volume Beef = grass fed Intensive production = efficient higher volume Beef = grain fed ******************************* Fast food = convenient Proper meals = healthy 3

4 Emerging Themes Governments NGO s Consumers Retailers Brands Leading? Pushing? Waiting/following? Responding? Playing their part? Demand World Population (bn) Global Meat Consumption Africa Asia Europe Latin America/Caribbean North America Oceania WORLD World Meat Production No/Low Market Growth in Development Countries with Existing High Meat/Dairy Product Consumption World Watch Institute 2008 Population growth slow or declining Ageing population with reduced food intake Concerns about meat/fat impact on health* Social pressures: concern about GHG-intensive products; and guilt about inefficient grain-fed red meat in a food insecure/scare world For lower income group, migration to lower-pricedpriced products (intensive white meats) But, for higher income groups, higher priced special treat meat meals have appeal * Particularly, older consumers; exacerbated by periodic meat industry safety scares 4

5 World Grain Production U.S. Oil Price Wheat Price LIFFE wheat MATIF wheat CBOT wheat CBOT Maize $ per barrel (Brent crude) Figures are recorded on the first day of each week per tonne Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Importance of Food in the Consumer Price Index Selected Countries,

6 Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure % Retail Price Index Inflation - the two main measures. Data up to August Consumer Confidence Index -Monthly Inflation Ahead of Growth - how shopping behaviours change TRADING DOWN TO CHEAPER PRODUCTS TO COUNTER INFLATION MORE AND MORE PROMOTIONS SHOPPING MORE OFTEN & BUYING LESS MORE SHOPPING AT THE DISCOUNTERS MAKING OUR FOOD GO FURTHER MORE EATING IN The UK Grocery Market Expenditure c. 103bn Households c. 26.2m Frequency of purchase average 255 times per year Average trip spend Average spend per buyer 3,925 per year 6

7 Changing Landscapes 20 years ago In the old days you knew where to shop 4 The Retail Trends Bread Milk Flowers Meat Easter Egg Shampoo Newspaper Television Pants Condoms Bakers Milkman Florist Butchers Woolies Boots Newsagent Electrical Store M&S Barbers Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2006 Retailer Development ( ) Centralised off-site packing under contract Regional distribution centres IT development and loyalty cards Store formats (e.g. Extra, Superstore, Supermarket, Express) Range tiering Best Finest Taste The Difference Extra Special Better Standard Standard Standard Good Value Basics Smart Price Retailer Tiering Premium Standard Plus Standard Value Price Comparisons A Period of Unprecedented Consumer Change 5.60/kg 6.66/kg 10.91/ kg 14.55/kg 7

8 Cabinet Office Strategy Unit Analysis (Jan 2008) A Real Life Problem - Horsegate Who are the Buyers Least Likely to be Concerned by the Horsemeat Scandal? Not Concerned Buyer % - 52w/e 17 th February 2013 Who are the Buyers Concerned but Least Likely to Change Their Behaviour? Concerned & Won t Change Buyer % - 52w/e 17 th February 2013 pre- family or young family More likely to live in city & urban dwellings 50.2% vs % (av.) older couples More likely to live in Rural or suburban dwellings 55.3% vs % (av.) ABC1 62.8% vs % (av.) Less likely to eat ready meals retired or empty nesters 51.5% vs % (av.) More likely to eat fresh meat Who Are the Buyers Concerned and Claim They Will Change Their Behaviour? Concerned & Will Change Buyer % - 52w/e 17 th February 2013 Convenience Continues to Struggle in Fresh & Frozen Formats Post-scandal category performance YrYr% Change in Volume, 16w/e 12 th May 2013 vs.. Year Ago families More likely to live in city & urban dwellings 50.2% vs % (av.) C2DE 44.5% vs % (av.) More likely to eat ready meals 8

9 The Main Movement has been from Convenience to Primary Switching movements Volume Switching Flows 32m Has Been Lost Across These Categories Since the Scandal Cash impact of scandal Actual YrYr Change in Sales 16w/e 12 May 2013 vs. Year Ago The most Concerned Shoppers are Buying 20% Less This Period Frozen ready meals YrYr% Change in Volume Till Roll Total Net Switching Volumes - Summary Aldi Waitrose Sainsbury's 32 Lidl 22 Iceland Farm Foods 6 5 Morrisons 1 All Others Independents Asda -40 The Co-operative -82 Tesco -104 Switching - Spend ( m) 12 w/e May vs. 12 w/e May The Digital Revolution in Context Where to From Here?... a little bit of marketing 9

10 Internet Users Worldwide The transformation of Consumers Insight Can Now be Real-Time Online Really Matters Adspends Internet Users by Country TV Radio Out of home National Regional Magazine Cinema Internet Direct mail 10

11 Conclusions Supertanker trends affect all food markets Real change is slow Sustainability cannot be ignored UK is only a small part of world consumption and production UK supermarkets dominate the food industry Recent changes, particularly growth of discounters (Aldi etc) Horsemeat crisis came and went Growth of digital media and advertising Traditional media still dominant NEVER FORGET THE CONSUMER 11