IMPORT EXPORT RELATIONS AND BASIC RULES OF WHEAT TRADE IN TURKEY

Transcription

1 IMPORT EXPORT RELATIONS AND BASIC RULES OF WHEAT TRADE IN TURKEY Middle East Grain Congress-2018 February 17, 2018, Dubai / UAE

2 AGENDA 1-TURKISH AGRIFACTS 2 WHEAT ROLE IN TURKISH AGRICULTURE 3 TURKISH WHEAT & DERIVATIVES TRADE 4- TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD /2019 SEASON PROSPECTS 6- SUMMARY

3 1- TURKISH AGRIFACTS

4 TURKISH AGRIFACTS Turkish Population ( 2018 ) : 80.8 Mlns Agricultural Employment Rate : 20% Economic Magnitude: 850 Mlrd USD Global Rank: 16 th Growth Rate ( 2017 ): 7.5% GDP Per Capita ( 2017 ) : USD Agricultural Value : 100 Mlrd USD Global ( 3.2 Trillion USD ) Share: 3% Turkish AgriExports : 17 Mlrd USD ( 11% of Turkish total ) Turkish AgriImports : 17 Mlrd USD ( 8% of Turkish total )

5 2- WHEAT ROLE IN TURKISH AGRICULTURE

6

7 TURKEY HAS AROUND 78 MLN HA OF ACREAGE INCLUDING 24 MLN HA OF ARABLE AGRICULTURAL LAND ( APPROX 30% SHARE )

8 APPROX MLN HA OF TURKISH ARABLE AGRICULTURAL ACREAGE TOTAL ( 24 MLN HA ) BELONGS TO THE CEREALS COMPRISING MLN HA OF WHEAT MLN HA OF BARLEY MLN HA OF CORN MLN HA OF OTHERS ( PADDY RICE, RYE, OATS, TRITICALE ETC ).

9 IN 2017/18 SEASON; TURKEY RAISED AROUND 36.5 MLN T OF CEREALS COMPRISING - WHEAT, 21.0 MLN T ( 16/17, 18 ), - BARLEY, 6.5 MLN T ( 16/17, 5.0 ), - CORN, 6.0 MLN T ( 16/17, 6.4 ), - OAT, 250 KMT ( 16/17, 200 ), - RYE, 325 KMT ( 16/17, 300 ).

10 IN 2017/18 SEASON; 21.0 MLN T ( 2016/17, 18 ) OF TURKISH WHEAT OUTPUT HAS BEEN COMPRISING 4.15 MLN T ( 16/17, 3.6 ) OF DURUM MLN T ( 16/17, 14.4 ) OF OTHERS ( MAINLY MILLING )

11 IN 2017/18 SEASON; WITH 21.0 MLN T ( 2016/17, 18 ) OF WHEAT ( ALL SPECIES ) OUTPUT TURKEY HAS 10 TH RANK ( EU LEADERSHIP ) IN GLOBAL OUTPUT ( MLN T )

12 HOWEVER, IN 2017/18 SEASON; WITH 4.15 MLN T ( 2016/17, 3.6 ) OF DURUM WHEAT OUTPUT TURKEY HAS 3 RD RANK ( AFTER CANADA AND ITALY ) IN GLOBAL OUTPUT ( 36.5 MLN T )

13 3- TURKISH WHEAT & DERIVATIVES TRADE

14 TURKISH WHEAT OUTPUT OF 21.0 MLN T IN 2017/18 SEASON WILL BE CONSUMED AS - FOOD ( FOR WHEAT FLOUR, PASTA/MACARONI, BULGUR/CRACKED WHEAT, SEMOLINA, BISCUIT, STARCH ETC ) OF 17 MLN T, - SEED OF 1.7 MLN T, - FEED OF 1.3 MLN T, - OTHERS ( LOSSES ETC ) OF 1.0 MLN T.

15 TURKISH WHEAT FLOUR OUTPUT IS AROUND 17.5 MLN T

16 LOCAL TURKISH WHEAT FLOUR OUTPUT CAPACITY IS OVER MLN T WITH MORE THAN 700 SMALL, MEDIUM AND LARGE- SCALE MILLERS.

17 WITH OVER 80 MLN OF LOCAL POPULATION, PLUS REFUGEES AND TOURISTS, TURKISH WHEAT FLOUR CONSUMPTION IS AROUND 14 MLN T.

18 THE BALANCE OF 3.5 MLN T OF WHEAT FLOUR HAS BEEN EXPORTED AND SO TURKEY IS THE BIGGEST GLOBAL EXPORTER.

19 TURKEY APROX. PERFORMS 1/3 OF GLOBAL WHEAT FLOUR TRADE WITH MAIN DESTINATIONS OF IRAQ, SYRIA, SUDAN, ANGOLA, PHILIPPINES AND MADAGASCAR.

20 TURKISH PASTA/MACARONI OUTPUT IS AROUND 1.75 MLN T

21 LOCAL TURKISH PASTA OUTPUT CAPACITY IS AROUND 2.0 MLN T WITH NEARLY 25 FACTORIES.

22 TURKISH PASTA/MACARONI CONSUMPTION IS AROUND 750 THD T.

23 THE BALANCE OF 1.0 MLN T OF PASTA/MACARONI HAS BEEN EXPORTED AND SO TURKEY IS THE SECOND BIGGEST GLOBAL EXPORTER FOLLOWING ITALY.

24 THE MAIN DESTINATIONS OF TURKISH PASTA/MACARONI EXPORTS ARE ANGOLA, BENIN, SOMALI AND TOGO.

25 EXCEPT UNFAVORABLE WEATHER-SUFFERED SEASONS, TURKEY IS ALMOST SELF- SUFFICIENT COUNTRY FOR WHEAT.

26 HOWEVER, TURKISH GOVERNMENT PROTECTS LOCAL FARMERS WITH IMPORT-DUTY ( 45% NOW ) AGAINST CHEAPER IMPORTS. AND SO, TO BE COMPETITIVE AT EXPORT MARKETS, THE GOVERNMENT GRANTS LOCAL FACTORIES DUTY-FREE IMPORTS UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME.

27 AT THIS POINT; IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR, TURKEY IMPORTED 4.57 MLN T ( 2016, 3.47 ) OF WHEAT.

28 THE MAIN ORIGINS OF TURKISH WHEAT IMPORTS WERE MLN T OF RUSSIA, THD T OF LITHUANIA, THD T OF UKRAINE AND THD T OF LATVIA.

29 4- TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD

30

31 TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD, ESTABLISHED IN 1938, WAS THE MAIN STATE STRUCTURE IN GRAIN MARKETS, INCLUDING WHEAT.

32 THE MAIN MISSIONS OF TMO ARE - TO TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS BY REGULATING AGRICULTURAL MARKETS, ESPECIALLY GRAIN MARKETS, - TO KEEP STOCKS FOR THE STATE OF EMERGENCY.

33 TMO HAS BEEN ANNOUNCING PURCHASING AND INTERVENTION PRICES FOR FARMERS, SELLING THE STOCKS FOR THE LOCAL FACTORIES.

34 IN SOME SEASONS, IF NEEDED, THE GOVERNMENT ALSO APPOINTS THE RELEVANT STRUCTURE TO PERFORM THE IMPORTS AND/OR EXPORTS UNDER INTERNATIONAL TENDERS.

35 5-2018/2019 SEASON PROSPECTS

36 DUE TO DRIER FALL 17, THE PLANTINGS COULD NOT BE DONE IN DUE TIME AND AS INTENTED IN ANATOLIA ( ASIAN PART OF TURKEY ) MOSTLY, SO SOME ACREAGE CUTS WERE UNFO EXPERIENCED.

37 IN ADDITION, RAINS AND ESPECIALLY SNOWS ARE LESS THAN EARLIER YEARS SO FAR. INDEED, IT S EARLY TO SPEAK, BUT IF CURRENT PARTLY UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE KEPT TILL THE HARVESTINGS AND DURING HARVESTINGS ( LATE MAY-JUNE- EARLY JULY ), FURTHER LOSSES ARE POSSIBLE.

38 TENTATIVELY, TURKISH WHEAT NEW- CROP SIZE MAY BE AT MLN T RANGE, IE 2 4 MLN T LESS THAN CURRENT YEAR s 21 MLN T.

39 BY ASSUMING STILL HIGH PACE OF WHEAT FLOUR AND PASTA/MACARONI EXPORTS FOR 2018/19 SEASON, TURKEY MAY NEED HUGE WHEAT IMPORTS UNDER DUTY- FREE INWARD PROCESSING REGIME. TMO MAY ALSO ANNOUNCE DUTY- FREE INTERNATIONAL IMPORT TENDERS TO CURB LOCALLY HIGHER PRICES. CURRENT 45% OF IMPORT- DUTY MAY BE ALSO LESSENED EVEN ZEROIZED.

40 6- SUMMARY

41 TURKEY IS AMIDS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN GLOBAL WHEAT OUTPUT AND TRADE. TURKEY IS THE LEADER GLOBAL WHEAT FLOUR EXPORTER ( TO MORE THAN 120 COUNTRIES ) BY PERFORMING 1/3 OF GLOBAL WHEAT FLOUR TRADE. TURKEY IS THE SECOND BIGGEST PASTA/MACARONI EXPORTER ( TO MORE THAN 150 COUNTRIES ) AFTER ITALY. NORMALLY, TURKEY IS SELF-SUFFICIENT IN WHEAT, BUT TO BE COMPETITVE IN WHEAT FLOUR AND PASTA EXPORTS, GOVERNTMENT GRANTS DUTY- FREE ( NORMALLY, 45% ) IMPORTS UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME. TMO, TURKISH GRAIN BOARD, IS THE PUBLIC STRUCTURE TO REGULATE THE LOCAL MARKETS AND KEEP THE STOCKS FOR THE STATE OF EMERGENCY. WEATHER CONDITIONS SO FAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE IN ANATOLIA, ASIAN PART OF TURKEY, MOSTLY AND SO TUR NEW-CROP SIZE MAY BE 2 4 MLN T LESS THAN CURRENT 21 MLN T. IF SO, BY KEEPING STILL HIGH PACE OF WHEAT FLOUR AND PASTA EXPORTS, TURKEY MAY NEED MORE WHEAT IMPORTS. TMO MAY ALSO ANNOUNCE INTERNATIONAL DUTY-FREE IMPORT TENDERS.

42 Great thanks for your kind attention Teşekkürler Большое спасибо شكرا

43 THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER OVER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE ( SINCE 24 DECEMBER 1998 ) VEYSEL KAYA veyselkaya@sunseedman.com SKYPE : SUNSEEDMAN GSM : Facebook: Linkedin: Twitter: