Quarterly Cross Border Trade Report. October 2012

Transcription

1 Quarterly Cross Border Trade Report October 2012

2 Cross-Border Trade Initiative Background: Reporting Period: October 2011/September 2012 Institutions involved: FEWSNET, EAGC, WFP, FAO Objectives: Assess the contribution of informal trade to the regional food availability Provide early warning on potential food insecurity Provide data for food balance sheets Identify directions of informal trade Coverage: 11 countries (Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, S.Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti) 36 border-crossings monitored 36 monitors hired to collect daily data on trade flows

3 Borders covered by FEWS NET, EAGC and NBR

4 Main commodities informally traded (October 2011 September 2012) Commodity Volume traded (MT) Maize 387,308 Beans 291,647 Rice 244,189 Sorghum 96,727 Sorghum 8% Rice 21% Others 12% Maize 34% Others 142,205 TOTAL 1,162,076 Beans 25% *Source: FEWS NET and EAGC Maize, beans and rice are the most widely traded commodities in the region

5 Exporting countries by volume (October 2011 September 2012) Country Volume traded (MT) Uganda 811,025 Ethiopia 151,615 Tanzania 110,997 Rwanda 50,221 Somalia 19,874 DRC 8,212 Sudan 6,150 Burundi 3,622 S. Sudan 153 Kenya 152 Djibouti 54 TOTAL 1,162,076 SOM 2% Others 3% RW 4% Tanzania 9% Ethiopia 13% Uganda 70% *Source: FEWS NET and EAGC Uganda is the main exporter in the region. Despite being a major producer, Tanzania contributes marginally to the exported volumes in the region.

6 Importing countries by volume (October 2011 September 2012) Country Volume traded (MT) Volume traded (MT main cereals**) % national import requirements*/** Kenya 448, , % ( ) Rwanda 351, ,699 N/A Sudan 122,426 16,148 S. Sudan 104,998 80, % ( ) Burundi 50,674 16, % ( ) Uganda 29,428 4, % (2012) DRC 27,313 12, % (2012) Ethiopia 22,436 19, % (2012) Somalia 3,677 3, % ( ) Djibouti 547*** % (2012) Tanzania Burundi 4% South Sudan 9% Sudan 11% DRC 2% Uganda 2% Others 3% Rwanda 30% Kenya 39% *Source: FEWS NET, EAGC and NBR TOTAL 1,162, , % *Estimation from cereals balance sheets FAO/GIEWS (year of reference). ** coarse grainse, rice, wheat (considered in the cereals balance sheet FAO/GIEWS). *** The monitoring in Djibouti started in August Informal trade accounts for 8.8% of import requirements of cereals (indicative estimation)

7 MAIZE: imports, prices and effect on selected markets in eastern Africa (October 2011-October 2012) Prices were high in Kenya, Rwanda and South Sudan attracting supplies from Uganda and Tanzania in the period. Maize imports followed the seasonal calendar: Kenya: Imports from Tanzania stabilized prices in coastal, south-eastern and southwestern lowlands. Imports from Ethiopia steadied prices in northern pastoral livelihoods. South Sudan: Urban Markets registered the highest prices (peaks and trends) in June to August; Uganda was the main exporter. Informal trade of maize is mostly dictated by prices in both the source and destination markets.

8 Kenya: Food Security & informal trade High informal import was registered during the lean season (May-Jun 2012). Decrease of informal import from Tanzania in September as local harvests entered the markets. Relatively low volatility of Food prices in main markets due to steady informal import during lean season. May-Jun 2012 sorghum Sep 2012 Imports of maize from Tanzania and Uganda are expected to continue during the harvests in Kenya due to below average production and lower prices in Uganda and Tanzania. maize

9 South Sudan: Food Security & informal trade Informal trade in maize and sorghum peaked in June-July In Juba the prices for maize and sorghum (in July 2012) were 220% and 180% of the levels in July Informal imports of sorghum and maize from Uganda averted significant food insecurity due to the closure of the border with Sudan in April Nov 2011 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 sorghum Nov 2011 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Relevant informal imports (mainly from Uganda) were registered after April-May Expected resumption of import of cereals (sorghum) from Sudan will most likely stabilize prices mainly in Juba; the impact in other markets expected to vary due to the poor infrastructure. maize

10 Outlook Ongoing cereal harvests in Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan are expected to exert a downward pressure on prices through December Competitive prices in Uganda and Tanzania are likely to sustain informal trade in maize, beans and sorghum to South Sudan and Kenya through the first quarter of 2013 and mitigate food insecurity during lean season in these countries. Above average Fava bean harvest in Meher season in Ethiopia is expected to result in increased export to Sudan through December. Bean exports from Uganda and Ethiopia is expected to continue seasonally into deficit Kenya, Sudan and South Sudan. Improving security in Southern Somalia is expected to lead to increased cross-border trade with Ethiopia and Kenya.

11 CONCLUSIONS Total 1.16 million MT shows that informal trade has significant contribution to food security in the region (estimated 8.8% of total requirement). Monitoring of more border-crossings would increase the accuracy of magnitude of informal trade. However, several years cross-border trade monitoring will be required to establish consistency and seasonality of informal trade and its contribution to food security in the region.