The Black Sea Market. Thorsten Tiedemann, Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH Global Grain Geneva, November 13, 2013

Transcription

1 The Black Sea Market Thorsten Tiedemann, Alfred C. Toepfer International GmbH Global Grain Geneva, November 13, 2013

2 Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan (RUK) - Impact of grain output on wheat prices (CBOT in USCent/bu) 1,400 1,200 1, /08 and 2010/11: Additional Impact from Export Restrictions In mln t Kazakhstan Ukraine Russia / / / / / / /2014 Source: USDA, Reuters Chart 2

3 Share in Global Grain Exports - Importance of RUK increasing, while importers become less dependent on the US 100% 90% 15% 19% 20% Others 80% 70% 5% 9% 10% 4% 19% RUK 60% 50% 14% 6% 10% 14% 8% 9% Australia EU 40% 30% 15% South America 20% 10% 46% 47% 29% North America 0% Source: USDA Chart 3

4 1 Karten der Region mit Entfernungen 5. Februar 2013 Bassum-Neubruchhausen Chart Chart 4 4

5 Russia: Distribution of wheat acreage - Winter wheat in Europ. Russia, spring wheat further east Russland Karte June 11, 2011 nabim 5 (in 1000 t) Quelle: USDA, FAO Chart 5

6 RUK: Grain Acreage Trend (in mln ha) - Combined Sunseed/Corn/Soybean Acreage more than doubled since Others Soybeans Sunseed Corn Barley Wheat 10 0 Source: USDA Chart 6

7 RUK: Grain Production Trend (in mln t) - Corn output up 7 times, soy output 10 times and sunseed output 3 times since Others Soybeans Sunseed Corn Barley Wheat Source: USDA Chart 7

8 Ukraine: Production Costs and Profitability - In US$/ha Wheat Corn Sunseed Rapeseed YIELD PER HA PRICE PER TONNE $ 202 $ 170 $ 392 $ 435 TOTAL REVENUE 1,010 1, ,420 COSTS TOTAL DIRECT COSTS $ 438 $ 654 $ 302 $ 757 FERTILIZER $181 $189 $90 $337 PESTICIDES $75 $70 $75 $284 SEED $80 $144 $77 $72 DRYING $40 $172 $33 $27 TOTAL POWER COSTS $ 197 $ 210 $ 207 $ 235 MACHINE HIRE/LEASE $ 17 $ 20 $ 19 $ 25 MACHINE REPAIR $ 30 $ 30 $ 30 $ 30 FUEL AND OIL $ 30 $ 35 $ 33 $ 40 MACHINERY DEPRECIATION $ 105 $ 110 $ 110 $ 125 TOTAL OVERHEAD $ 100 $ 105 $ 105 $ 110 (e.g. hired labour, building depreciation, repairment) LAND COST $ 102 $ 102 $ 102 $ 102 TOTAL COSTS $ 837 $ 1,071 $ 715 $ 1,203 NET RETURN PER ACRE $ 173 $ 170 $ 226 $ 217 Profitability 20.7% 15.9% 31.5% 18.0% Chart 8

9 Grain Yields in RUK (in t/ha)* - Still mostly below worldwide average Source: USDA *Avg. of Chart 9

10 Grain Yields in RUK (in t/ha) - Corn improves a lot, while wheat/barley stagnate Corn Barley Wheat Source: USDA Chart 10

11 RUK: Grain Sector since late 1980s (in mln t) - Strong exports due to lower feed use instead of higher output 175 Sovjet Crisis Consolidation Boom FSI Use Feed Use Production Net Trade / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 Source: USDA Chart 11

12 RUK: Development of Livestock numbers Cattle (mln Head) Poultry (mln t) Ukraine Ukraine Russia Russia Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Hogs (mln Head) Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan Cattle Number down by 75% Hog Number down by 60 % Poultry production up by 242% Source: USDA Chart 12

13 Grain Exports of RUK versus US (in mln t) - US Exports suffer whenever RUK export pace is high US RUK 0 Source: USDA Chart 13

14 Monthly Corn Exports (in 1,000 t) - Overall decreasing trend in the US, RUK partly replaces US after harvest 7,000 6,000 USA RUK 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2013 Source: GTIS Chart 14

15 Grain Exports Russia versus USA - Czaristic Time ( ) - Czaristic Russia Chart 15

16 RUK: Wheat and Corn Exports - Main Destinations in 2013/14 (in mln t) RUK Total Wheat: 29.9 Corn: 20.5 EU Corn: 8.4 Africa Wheat: 10.3 Corn: 3.9 Middle East Wheat: 8.5 Corn: 4.0 SE Asia Corn: 3.2 Source: USDA, Toepfer Chart 16

17 Weather in Ukraine and European Russia - Precipitation: Departure from normal rains (in %) September 2013 too wet for planting October 2013 perfect planting conditions Source: MDA Chart 17

18 Winter Crop Planting Progress (in 1,000 ha) - Farmers have caught up with plantings after the rains Ukraine Russia Source: UkrAgroConsult, IKAR Chart 18

19 Grain Yields Projection for RUK (in t/ha) - Corn continues to have the strongest potential % p.a. Corn % p.a. Wheat Barley +1.2% p.a Source: USDA, Toepfer Chart 19

20 RUK: Grain Sector until 2019/20 (in mln t) - Future export growth due to higher output, not lower usage 175 Sovjet Crisis Consolidation Boom Projection FSI Use Feed Use Production Net Trade Source: USDA, Toepfer Chart 20

21 Summary & Outlook Shorter term Major Losses in winter wheat area only in R Central and Volga Districts However, vulnerability of crops to frost and drought might be higher Spring crops (corn, sunseed, soybeans, spring barley) will benefit EU expected to see big corn imports from Ukraine again in 13/14 Longer term Know-how and equipment is improving and yield/export potential will further increase Higher meat production via more efficient feed use, not only via higher feed use Corn plays an ever increasing role and the Black Sea becomes a stronger competitor vs the US and Brazil on the corn market Will export policy further stabilize? Chart 21