Remarks by Mark Pearson Wisconsin Corn/Soybean Expo Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin February 2, 2012

Transcription

1 Remarks by Mark Pearson Wisconsin Corn/Soybean Expo Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin February 2, 2012

2 Gross Fed. Debt FY-1900 to FY-2016 Source: usgovernmentspending.com

3 U.S. National Debt Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO

4 Thoughts on the World Economy $71.25 trillion Global GDP $14.89 trillion EU GDP $14.72 trillion U.S. GDP $9.87 trillion China GDP $4.33 trillion Japan GDP $4.04 trillion India GDP Source: CIA Factbook

5 U.S. GDP FY2004-FY2014 Source: usgovernmentspending.com

6 World Real GDP Growth Source: Int l Monetary Fund

7 U.S. Consumer Confidence Source: University of Michigan

8 New Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census of Bureau

9 Manufacturers New Orders Source: Federal Reserve

10 10-Year Prime Rate Source: MoneyCafe.com

11 Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values Source: Chicago Federal Reserve

12 DJIA Five-Year Performance Source: finance.yahoo.com

13 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Source: finance.yahoo.com

14 Five-Year U.S. Dollar Index Source: NYBOT

15 Five-Year Gold Prices Source: kitco.com

16 Light Sweet Crude Oil Source: NYMEX

17 China s Total Primary Energy Consumption, Source: Int l Energy Outlook

18 Source: Defensetech.org

19 China s Demand for Oil Imports Source: Int l Energy Outlook

20 China Flex Its Military Muscles Source: Defencetalk.com

21 Source: The Economist

22 Projected Oil Consumption Trends in Key Countries Through 2025 Source: IEA, EIA

23 Vital Maritime Chokepoints Source: EIA

24 10-Year Corn Prices Source: NASS

25 Corn Use: Fuel versus Food Bushels 6 Feed Ethanol Source: USDA

26 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

27 World Corn Ending Stocks as a Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

28 USDA Corn Supply and Use 2010/11 est. (1/12/12) 2011/2012 proj. Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Beginning Stocks 1,708 1,128 Production 12,447 12,358 Imports Supply, Total 14,182 13,501 Feed & Residual 4,793 4,600 Food, Seed & Industrial 6,428 6,405 Domestic Use, Total 11,220 11,005 Exports 1,835 1,650 Use, Total 13,055 12,655 Ending Stocks 1, Average Farm Price $5.18 $5.70-$6.70 Compliments of PHI Marketing

29 World Corn Supply and Use (est.) (proj.) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Ending Stocks Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

30 May 12 Corn Source: CBOT

31 December 12 Corn Source: CBOT

32 10-Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS

33 Projected World Population 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

34 Brazil s Big Ag Expansion % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24% 46% 36% 39% 48% 68% Coffee Soybeans Cotton Production Exports Source: DTN

35 World Population Density

36 World Population Growth Rate Source: CIA Factbook

37 Youth Bulge Population Impact Millions Afghanistan Iran Pakistan Source: Stanford Center for Longevity

38 Median Age in Mideast Hot Spots 41 Afghanistan Iran Pakistan Source: Stanford Center for Longevity

39 Median Age Global Hot Spots A L G E R I A M O R O C C O 24.2 L I B Y A 24.0 E G Y P T 21.6 S A U D I 20.6 I R A Q 18.0 AF GH AN IS TAN 17.6 SO MA LIA 16.4 YEM EN 15.0 U G A N D A Source: CIA World Factbook

40 Median Age BRICs, PIIGS & More J A P A N 44.2 I T A L Y 43.7 G E R M A N Y 42.2 G R E E C E 41.5 S P AI N 39.7 P O R T U G A L 38.5 R U S SI A 35.4 I R E L A N D 28.9 B R A Z I L 25.9 I N D I A Source: CIA World Factbook

41 Solid as a BRIC? Brazil, Russia, India, China to be among four most dominant economies by 2050 ; 25 percent of world s land mass; 40 percent of global population; $18.48 trillion in combined GDP 41 percent of world s market capitalization by Source: Goldman Sachs

42 How BRIC Stacks Up Not a formal political union, trade association but increasing political cooperation to influence U.S. trade accords, extract concessions; China, India to become dominant supplier of manufactured goods, services; Brazil, Russia to dominate raw materials markets. Source: Goldman Sachs

43 How BRIC Stacks Up Part II Middle class in all four countries could reach 200 million by 2025; India alone has 10 of world s 30 fastest-growing urban centers; 700 million to move to cities by 2050; Forbes: March 2011, BRIC has more billionaires than Europe for first time. Source: Goldman Sachs

44 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

45 World Soybean Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

46 USDA Soybean Supply and Use 2010/11 Est. (1/12/12) 2011/2012 Projected Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning Stocks Production 3,329 3,056 Imports Supply, Total 3,495 3,286 Crush 1,648 1,615 Exports 1,501 1,275 Seed Residual Use, Total 3,280 3,011 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price $11.30 $10.95-$12.45 Compliments of PHI Marketing

47 World Soybean Supply and Use 2009/ /11 (est.) 2011/2012(Proj.) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Crush Total Exports Ending Stocks Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

48 May 12 Soybeans Source: CBOT

49 November 12 Soybeans Source: CBOT

50 10-Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS

51 USDA Wheat Supply and Use 2010/11 (1/12/12) 2011/2012 Projected Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning Stocks Production 2,207 1,999 Imports Supply, Total 3,279 2,982 Food Seed Feed & Residual Exports 1,289 1,162 Use, Total 2,417 2,112 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price $5.70 $6.95-$7.45 Compliments of PHI Marketing

52 World Wheat Supply and Use 2009/ /11(est.) 2011/2012 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Ending Stocks Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

53 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

54 World Wheat Ending Stocks As Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

55 March 12 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

56 December 12 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT

57 10-Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS

58 February 12 Live Cattle Source: CBOT

59 August 12 Live Cattle Source: CBOT

60 March 12 Feeder Cattle Source: CBOT

61 November 12 Feeder Cattle Source: CBOT

62 10-Year Milk Prices Source: NASS

63 December Milk Cows Source: NASS

64 March 12 Class III Milk Source: CBOT

65 December 12 Class III Milk Source: CBOT

66 10-Year Hog Prices Source: NASS

67 February 12 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT

68 December 12 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT

69

70 Globally Local World: What s Ahead Recovering economy Demographics will drive ag/food product demand Next world industrial expansion: Africa U.S. continues to be ag technology leader U.S., China will drive African development Infrastructure build-out continues in South America Youth bulge means growth in Middle East, but continued destabilization following Arab Spring What s this mean for you: Continued strong demand for U.S. agricultural commodities