(SA c/kg) 3,860 3,600 3,340 3,080 2,300 2,040 1,780

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "(SA c/kg) 3,860 3,600 3,340 3,080 2,300 2,040 1,780"

Transcription

1 Agri-Weekly 21 August Beef market trends (Graph 1) Graph 1: Beef price trends (SA c/kg) US imported beef prices moved moderately 4,12 lower due to weaker domestic demand. Market 3,86 activity on imports was reportedly slow to 3,6 moderate. Australian supplies to the US have reportedly reached 82% of the yearly beef tariff rate quota during 215. The increased pace of supplies 3,34 3,8 2,82 from Australia for the year to date was due to 2,56 strong import demand in the US and the higher 2,3 rate of cattle slaughter in Australia. As a result, the Australian Department of Agriculture, which administers the export quota, is expected to start allocating the remaining 2,4 1,78 1,52 percentage to eligible exporters. 22-Aug Dec-14 1-May-15 4-Sep-15 US wholesale beef prices were mostly firmer Class A Contract Class C Weaner calf with choice beef gaining 1.3% w/w at NZ Cow import parity,d/bn US$245.75/cwt but still down 2.5% y/y. The select beef prices were marginally up by.6% w/w at US$235.91/cwt, but still down 2.8% y/y. In the cattle market, prices were mostly down with the CME feeder index dropping to US$215.25/cwt, down by.7% w/w and 1.3% y/y. The weekly cattle slaughter number came in unchanged from the previous week at 54, head, which is down by 9.4% y/y. The year to date slaughter reached 18.5m head, down by 7.% y/y. In Australia, cattle in feedlots were reported at near record levels at 956,927 head which is up 13.1% y/y as of June 215. According to the survey published by the Australian Lot Feeders Association (ALFA) and Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), the majority of the cattle on feed were located in the state of Queensland (55.2%). During the first half of the year, Australia s cattle slaughter reportedly reached 4.14m head, which was up 4.1% y/y and was 17.7% more than two years ago. The beef market saw marginal losses as demand slipped during midmonth. Prices were down across the board with the weekly Class A beef prices easing by.6% w/w and 3.3% y/y at R33.55 per kg. Contract Class A beef prices were marginally down on last week and almost unchanged y/y at R34.58 per kg. Class C beef prices moved marginally lower by.8% w/w but still up by 1.5% y/y at R27.35 per kg. The weaner market posted further losses due to a slowdown in demand across markets. Weaner calf prices were down by 2.1% w/w but still 6.3% higher y/y at R2.51 per kg live weight. Hide prices remained on an extended downward trend due to lack of demand. Weekly hide prices have fallen to a new low of R13.64 per kg. Most areas remain dry and early rains are needed to kick-start pasture regrowth and improve the grazing conditions. Prices will follow the normal seasonal trend of a rebound towards Nov/ early December as demand increases.

2 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 2 Graph 1a: Weekly commercial cattle slaughter trends (head) Graph 1b: Average hide prices per kg 15, , 17. 9, 6, 3, Source: RMMA; the August average price for hides preliminary 8. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Mutton market trends (Graph 2) In Australia, prices were mostly down for the week. The National Trades Lamb indicator fell by 2% on the week at AU$5.75/kg cwt. The mutton indicator prices decreased by 2% w/w at AU$3.6/kg cwt. Domestic producer prices in New Zealand (NZ) continued to post good gains across most categories with the 17.5kg lamb slightly up on last week at NZ$94.7/ head, but still up by 6% y/y. Mutton prices were the exception and trended sideways at NZ$53.5/ head, but still down by 11% y/y. In the US, Lamb Carcass Cutout prices eased further to US$321.21/cwt, which is 2.7% lower y/y. Weekly sheep slaughter number was up 8.3% w/w and almost unchanged y/y at 39, head. The cumulative year to date sheep slaughter reached 1.27m head, but still down by 6.7% y/y. The cumulative year to date lamb production was slightly down by 5.4% compared to the same period last year at 9.5 million pounds. The lamb and mutton markets posted modest losses mainly due to weak demand. Weekly Class A lamb prices fell by 3.7% w/w but still up 9.1% y/y at R56.5 per kg. Contract Class A lamb prices were marginally down by.5% w/w but still up by 9.4% y/y at R55.4 per kg. Mutton prices fell by 5.4% and closed at R41.32 per kg, but still up 2.% y/y. Weaner lamb prices declined due to weak demand and softer carcass prices. Weekly weaner lamb prices fell by 2.3% w/w but still 14.9% higher y/y at R28.33 per kg live weight. The medium term outlook for the domestic lamb and mutton prices remains bullish but the prevailing weather will influence further direction as it determines the availability of slaughter animals. Internationally, the limited availability of product has supported prices despite subdued economic conditions and this trend is expected to continue in the short to medium term. 42, Graph 2a: Weekly commercial sheep slaughter trends (head) ,4, (SA c/kg) Graph 2: Mutton price trends 6,58 6,4 5,5 4,96 4,42 3,88 3,34 2,8 2,26 22-Aug Dec-14 1-M ay-15 4-Sep-15 Lamb C o nt ract lamb ZN M ut t on parit y * Last two data points are preliminary Graph 2a: Cummulative sheep slaughter trends (head) Class C N Z Lamb p arit y , 1,2, 22, 1,, 8, 12, 6, 2, -8, , 2,

3 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 3 Pork market trends (Graph 3) US pork prices reversed trend and weakened with the average pork carcass cutout value finishing the week down 1.5% at US$88.59/cwt, which is 17.6% lower y/y. Rib prices rebounded slightly by 3.2% w/w and 3.1% y/y at US$156.84/cwt. Ham prices closed at US$52.29/cwt, down by 21.4% w/w and 45.6% y/y. Loin prices were modestly higher by 4.4% w/w at US$92.7/cwt, but still down by 19.4% y/y. Weekly slaughter data showed a marginal increase in number, up.4% w/w and 11.2% y/y at 2.23m head. The year-to-date estimated pig slaughter reached 72.14m head, up 7.8% y/y. In the latest USDA Livestock Slaughter report, the July pork production totalled 1.97 billion lbs, up 1% y/y. Hog slaughter came in at 9.4m head, up 11% y/y. The average live weight was however down 3 lbs from the previous year, at 28lbs. Pork and baconer prices posted slight losses due to lack of demand. Weekly porker prices closed at R22.39 per kg, down by.9% w/w but still 8.8% higher y/y. Graph 3: Pork price trends (SA c/kg) Baconer prices decreased by 1.3% w/w but still 9.3% higher y/y at R2.68 per kg. Import parity prices dropped sharply despite a weaker Rand due to a substantial decline in international prices. Weekly pork import parity prices decreased by 16.2% w/w and 26.4% y/y. Pork prices are expected to trend sideways with limited upside potential due to volume pressure. However the medium term outlook is somewhat bullish on rand weakness and good demand as warmer weather returns. 4,26 3,98 3,7 3,42 3,14 2,86 2,58 2,3 2,2 1,74 1,46 1, Aug Dec-14 1-May-15 4-Sep-15 Po rker Imp o rt p arit y B aco ner Exp o rt p arit y 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Graph 3a: Pork Import Trends (tons) Year-to-date: June , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Graph 3b: Pork Monthly Import Trends (tons) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Graph 4d: Imports by Country % GERMANY 14% 25% 16% 39% CANADA SPAIN FRANCE Other Source: SAPPO, SARS, Own Calculations 4% 4% 5% 9% 27% Graph 3e: Imports by Country % 7% 42% GERMANY CANADA SPAIN UK FRANCE BELGIUM DENMARK Other 1% 1% Graph 3c: Imports by Country % 9% GERMANY 18% CANADA FRANCE DENMARK SPAIN 44% Other

4 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 4 Poultry market trends (Graph 4) Graph 4: Poultry price trends (c/kg) US broiler prices were mixed with whole birds 2,5 trending sideways. In the portions market, gains 2,38 were recorded for the leg quarters, and drumsticks. 2,26 Market activity was reportedly moderate. 2,14 Demand was reportedly light to good at retail level, 2,2 and moderate at food service. 1,9 Whole bird prices closed at US115.2 cents/lb, almost unchanged from last week and 2.2% higher y/y. 1,78 1,66 1,54 Leg quarter prices were a bit firmer for the week at US45.7 cents/lb, but still down by 16.2% y/y. 1,42 1,3 1,18 Breast cut prices were almost unchanged from last A ug D ec M ay Sep - 15 week but 1.1% higher y/y at US13.1 cents/lb. Frozen whole Fresh whole Wing prices eased to US157.3 cents/lb, but still Imported Leg Quarter (US) IQF 1.4% higher y/y. Drumsticks prices advanced marginally to close at US52.7 cents/lb, but still down by 18.9% y/y. In the weekly US Broiler Hatchery report, egg sets for the week ended 15 August 215 were slightly down on last year at 213m. Average hatchability for chicks remains at 84.%. The broiler chick placements were up by 1% y/y at 176m head. Cumulative broiler placements from January 1, 215 through August 15, 215 were up 3% y/y at 5.67b head. Weakness in the domestic market continues as volumes remain high and demand is sluggish. Chicken in cold storage is reportedly adequate and continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Weekly medium frozen whole bird prices eased slightly by.8% w/w and were 3.2% higher y/y at R2.35 per kg. Medium fresh whole bird prices were marginally down by.9% w/w at R2.98 per kg, but still 4.3% higher y/y. Mixed portions continued decline with the Individually Quick Frozen cuts (IQF) prices closing at R17.52 per kg, down 1.8% w/w but still up 8.6% y/y. Import parity prices continued to strengthen largely due to the weakness in the Rand/ US dollar exchange rate. Weekly import parity prices were up 1.4% w/w and 2.7% y/y. It is expected that poultry prices will remain under pressure in the short term due to increased stocks and the general weakness in the local economy. Nonetheless, prices should rebound strongly towards year end as favourable braai weather (warmer) returns. Meanwhile, a sustained depreciation of the rand against the US dollar will curtail imports and improve the competitiveness of the local product. 2, 15, 1, 5, Graph 4a: Poultry Import Trends Year-to-date: June , 4, 3, 2, 1, Graph 4b: Poultry Monthly Import Trends (tons) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Graph 4e: Imports by Country Graph 4c: Imports by Country Graph 4e: Imports by Country BRAZIL BRAZIL BRAZIL 54.5% 13.81% 5.2% 6.56% 1.87% 2.94% 15.55% Netherlands ARGENTINA UK CANADA United States OTHER 73.16%.9% 1.27% 2.69% 7.7% 1.69% 5.4% Netherlands ARGENTINA UK CANADA United States OTHER 18.37% 27.56% 44.83% 3.31% 3.19% 1.4% 1.34% OTHER NETHERLANDS ARGENTINA BELGIUM CANADA United States Source: SARS, Own Calculations; *Excluding BNLS

5 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 5 Producer prices for selected livestock commodities 21 August 215 Beef Mutton Pork Poultry Open market: Class A / Porker / Fresh whole birds(r/kg) Open market: Class C / Baconer / Frozen whole birds(r/kg) Contract: A2/A3* / Baconer/ IQF (*includes fifth quarter) (R/kg) Import parity price (R/kg) Weaner Calves / Feeder Lambs (R/kg) Wool and cotton market trends (Graph 5) The cotton price posted a modest recovery after weeks of losses as the market responded to the supply tightness in the USDA s WASDE report. However the large stocks and favourable weather conditions in the USA continue to limit upside potential. The report surprised most traders who expected an upward revision given recent supportive weather conditions. Cotton prices settled the week at US73.57 cents/lb, up 4% w/w but slightly lower compared to last year. In the recent USDA, total US crop was revised down by 1% from the July estimate to 13.1m tons on reduced plantings. This is also down 11% y/y. This was on the back of lower than expected planted as well as below average yield expectations. US consumption was lowered 5, bales to 3.7m bales while exports were lowered 8, bales to 1m bales. In the futures market, prices were mostly higher with the Oct-15 contract closing.7% higher w/w at US c/lb, Dec-15 was up 1.5% w/w at US66.91 c/lb, and the Mar-16 contract up 1.4% w/w at US66.35 c/lb. Wool market: The Australian wool market reversed last week s gains and trended sideways. The weekly Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) was down most of the week at Au$12.63/kg clean. The wool market trended sideways which saw the Cape Wools Merino Indicator closing at R per kg (clean), marginally down from the previous week. This is up by 15% compared to the opening sale but still down by 9% compared to the closing sale of the 214/15 season. The combination of a weaker rand, small offering and healthy demand helped limit losses. The closing Cape Wools Merino indicator for the season was R141.2 per kg clean wool. At that level the indicator was up 27% compared to the opening sale and 23% compared to the season to date average. Major buyers were Lempriere SA with 2,84 bales (33.6%), Standard Wool SA with 1,85 bales (29.1%), and G Modiano SA with 1,374 bales (22.1%). Fibre market prices 21 August 215 SA prices (R/kg) Australian prices (R/kg) Australian futures Sep-15 (AU$/kg) Australian futures Dec-15 (AU$/kg) Wool market indicator (R/kg) long length wool (R/kg) long length wool (R/kg) long length wool (R/kg) Fibre market prices 7 August 215 SA derived Cotton (R/kg) New York A-Index (US$/kg) Graph 5: Cotton & w ool prices (SA c/kg) 8,65 1,2 22-Aug Dec-14 1-M ay-15 4-Sep-15 Cotton Futures Oct-15 (US$/kg) Cotton Futures Mar-16 (US$/kg) Cotton Prices (R/kg) Cotton Futures on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE); 16,45 15,67 14,89 14,11 13,33 12,55 11,77 1,99 1,21 9,43 Wool 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 SA Wool Aus Wool Cot t on A-Index ICE Fut ures Cotton

6 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 6 Yellow maize market (Graph 6) (R/ton) Graph 6: Yellow maize prices The maize prices trended sideways as weak export demand limited the price upside. 3,63 3,31 The strong US$ limited export demand as some importers are now looking to other markets following the strong production outlook by the USDA in nontraditional export markets. However, news of further 2,99 2,67 2,35 2,3 1,71 yield losses in some of the US maize fields provided 1,39 some support. 1,7 Contrary to the news, the recent USDA WASDE 75 report indicated overall yield improvements on turnaround in weather conditions. This saw the USDA raising the nation s crop to 348m tons, well 1-Aug-14 5-Dec-14 Import parity 1-Apr-15 Export parity 14-Aug-15 Domestic above the July estimate but down 4% y/y. Consumption was raised higher on increased use for sweeteners which offset reduction in food and industrial use. Crop development continues swiftly and ahead of seasonal averages. Most of the concerns have been factored into recent price movements and ratings remain at 69% in the good to excellent conditions, unchanged from last week but 4-percentage points below the 5-year average. Overall world production is expected to reach m tons well above the IGC s estimation of 966m tons. Chinese farmers have reportedly planted less area on news of government restructuring away from maize due to stock piles. Ending stocks are estimated higher at 195m tons, up 47% y/y on abundant feed grains. Yellow maize prices continued the sideways movement as deliveries a nearly complete albeit at a slow pace. Total deliveries have reached 93% of the total expected crop. Prices closed 1% higher w/w and 51% higher y/y at R2,687 per ton. Exports for the week came in at 3,966 tons, all destined to neighbouring countries. There were no imports registered for the week, cumulative year to date import stood at 27,672 tons all sourced from Argentina. Internationally, quality will be the main driver as crop development is ahead of seasonal averages. The domestic market will continue to gain support from the weaker currency and overall regional supply concerns. 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Graph 6a: Monthly Yellow Maize Export Trends Marketing Seasons, (tons) MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 215/16 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Graph 6b: Total SA Maize Export Trends Marketing Seasons, (tons) MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Source: SAGIS Yellow Maize Futures Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul August 215 CBOT ($/t) JSE (R/t) CHICAGO CORN (R/t)

7 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 7 Calculated Yellow Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 2, , , , , , , , , White maize market trends (Graph 7) Graph 7: White maize prices (R/ton) White maize prices ended slightly weaker on lack 3,8 of supportive news and a bullish coarse grain 3,48 supply outlook. 3,16 Weekly average white maize prices lost 2% w/w closing at US$145/ton. 2,84 2,52 2,2 1,88 Prices posted moderate losses, finishing the week 1,56 down 1% w/w but still 75% higher compared to last 1,24 year at R2,992 per ton. 92 Exports for the week were pegged at 5,81 tons, 6 with the cumulative season to date reaching 1-Aug-14 5-Dec-14 1-Apr Aug-15 Imp o rt p arit y Exp o rt p arit y D o mest ic 131,6 tons, all destined to neighbouring * last two data points are countries. preliminary Imports for the week came in at 1,375 tons, bringing cumulative year to date imports to 3,728 tons. All sourced from Zambia. Internationally, quality will be the main driver as crop development is ahead of seasonal averages. The domestic market will continue to gain support from the weaker currency and overall regional supply concerns. White Maize Futures 21 August 215 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 JSE (R/t) WM Calculated White Maize Options prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 3, , , , , , , , , , Graph 7a: Monthly White Maize Export Trends (tons) Marketing Seasons 5, Graph 7b: Total Monthly SA Maize Exports (tons) Marketing Seasons 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 214/15 215/16 211/12 212/13 213/14 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Source: SAGIS;

8 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 8 Wheat market trends (Graph 8) Graph 8: Wheat price trends (R/ton) US wheat prices extended recent losses due to 4,9 pressure from the advancing spring wheat harvest. 4,46 In Russia, wet weather conditions have reportedly 4,2 delayed harvest and a lack of clarity regarding the new wheat export tax led to the reduction in exports. The Russian wheat exports were reported 3,58 3,14 2,7 2,26 down by 5% y/y. 1,82 The US has battled with competitiveness on world 1,38 markets as the US$ had been strong, which has led 94 to export progress for 215/16 falling behind the long term average Aug Dec-14 1-M ay-15 4-Sep-15 In Europe, the French wheat crop is seen up 8% on last year at a record 4.4m tons. Imp o rt p arit y Exp o rt p arit y D o mest ic In Australia, the National Australia Bank s wheat production forecast for 215 came in at 21.6m tons. Prices moved were slightly firmer largely on the back of a weaker rand despite weakness on the international market. Weekly wheat prices closed at R4,42 per ton, almost unchanged w/w and up by 9.4% y/y. Imports for the week came in at 58,96 tons, bringing the cumulative year to date figure reached 1.585m tons. The sustained rand weakness, currently hovering above the R13 versus the US dollar, remains an upside for domestic wheat prices. Internationally, weakness continues due to the general decline in world commodity prices. 32, Graph 8a: Wheat Import Trends (tons) Marketing Season 32 Graph 8b: Wheat Import & Export Trends (tons) Marketing Season 24, 24 16, 16 8, 8 Source: SAGIS; - OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP IMP-214/15 EXP-214/15 IMP-213/14 EXP-213/14 Supply and demand table: Wheat Marketing year 214/15 (tons) 215/16 (tons) CEC Estimate Opening stock Deliveries Imports Other 15 Total supply Domestic Consumption Exports Closing stocks (3 April) Source: NAMC Wheat Futures 21 August 215 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 KCBT ($/t) JSE (R/t) 4,45 4,36 4,1 - -

9 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 9 Calculated Wheat Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 4, , , , , , Oilseed market trends (Graph 9) (R/ton) US soya bean prices carried the weak Graph 9: Derived Oilseed prices momentum on supply pressure. 7,88 Showers came in timely across the US Midwest 7,44 where temperatures were above average, 7, assisting with pod filling. 6,56 Nonetheless, crop development remains behind seasonal averages providing some support to 6,12 5,68 5,24 prices. In terms of quality, ratings remained 4,8 unchanged w/w but 7-percentage points lower 4,36 than y/y at 63% in the good to excellent 3,92 conditions. 3,48 US soybean crop was revised slightly higher to 22-Aug Dec-14 1-M ay-15 4-Sep-15 17m tons on improved yield expectations. Derived Soya Derived Sunflower Sunflower-spot Soya-spot Production is however down 1% y/y on reduced plantings. Consumption remains strong on good crushing demand which was raised slightly from the previous estimate. World production is expected to reach 32m tons, slightly higher than the previous season s record. Consumption remains firm on good demand for soybean meal. Prices moved sideways on lack of supportive news as most of the concerns are factored into recent price movements. Weekly soya bean prices closed at R5,99 per ton, virtually unchanged w/w but still 3% lower y/y. Sunflower prices averaged R5,718 per ton, which is up 35% y/y. Internationally, soya bean prices are expected to trend sideways with further downside potential on adequate global supplies. However, the medium term price outlook for the domestic market remains bullish due to the lower expected crop compared to last year. The renewed weakness in the Rand/US dollar exchange rate will continue to provide further support. Oilseeds Futures 21 August 215 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 CBOT Soybeans (US $/t) CBOT Soya oil (US c/lb) CBOT Soya cake meal (US$/t) JSE Sunflower seed (R/t) JSE Soybean seed (R/t) Calculated Sunflower Option prices (R/ton) RMB commodity desk (Tel: ) Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Ask Put Call Ask Put Call Ask Put Call 5, , , , , ,

10 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 1 Sugar market trends (Graph 15) Graph 1: World Raw Sugar Price (USc/lb) Sugar prices continued to trade at historical No.11 (Usc/lb) lows as the supply outlook remains bullish. Latest estimates out of Brazil indicate a slightly increased harvest. The Brazilian forecasting agency Conab has reportedly pegged its estimate of the 215/16 cane harvest at 594m tons, which is up 3% from the previous season This is however 4m tons above another Brazilian agency Unica, which expects a harvest of 59m tons Meanwhile, the weakness in the Brazilian 12 economy will continue to weigh heavily on the 1 sugar market as the Real has fallen sharply Aug- 14 The weaker Real, which has lost much of its De c Apr Aug- 15 value, stimulates exports and creates an oversupply on world markets. Raw sugar prices ended at a record low of US1.6 cents/ib. Futures were down across the board with both the Mar-16 down 2.2% w/w at US11.6 cents/lb, and the sugar for May-15 delivery was down 1.9% at US11.7 cents/lb. The July 215 RV price in respect of cane delivered in June 215 was declared at R3,833.7 per ton, down by R34.34 m/m. According to the South African Cane Growers Association, this was attributable to the 59,96 drop in local market demand estimate (LMDE) which was drawn from 13.4% underperformance in the first quarter of the year. Losses were however limited by the 2% m/m reduction in sugar output estimation, the firmer spot No.11 price and the weaker R/US$ exchange rate. Export availability was revised up to 81,8 tons, up 3% from the June estimate on reduction in LMDE. Further significant revisions are on export availability are however expected given the uncertainty in the crop estimate as it is still early in the season. ICE Sugar Futures 21 August 215 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Sugar No.11 (US c/lb) % Change w/w -2.2% -1.9% -1.9% -1.6% -1.1%

11 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 11 Vegetable Market Trends (Graphs 11 to 15) Tomatoes Tomato prices reversed last week s gains ending with sharp losses due to higher volumes across markets. Weekly tomato prices closed at R5,287 per ton, down 25% w/w however up 23% y/y. Volumes of tomatoes traded reached 4,36 tons, up 3% w/w and 2% y/y. Prices are expected to rebounded slightly in the short term on moderation in supplies Graph 11: Fresh Produce Markets -Tomato prices Aug Dec-14 1-M ay-15 4-Sep-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) Potatoes Potato prices rebounded slightly after weeks of losses on good uptake across markets. Average weekly price of potatoes closed at R2,279 per ton, up 2% w/w but still down 12% y/y. Volumes of potatoes traded reached 6,558 tons, up 27% w/w and 12% y/y. It is expected that prices will trend sideways with limited upward potential in the short to medium term due to increased supplies. Graph 12: Fresh Produce Markets - Potato prices Aug Dec-14 1-May-15 4-Sep-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) * last t wo dat a point s are preliminary Onions In the onion market, prices rebounded slightly on good uptake on markets. Weekly onion prices closed at R2,279 per ton, up 3% w/w but down 12% y/y. Volumes of onions traded were pegged at 6,558 tons, up 27% w/w and 12% y/y. Prices are expected to ease somewhat due to supply pressure however strong demand will help limit losses Graph 13: Fresh Produce Markets - Onion prices 22-Aug Dec-14 1-May-15 4-Sep-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) * last t wo dat a point s are preliminary

12 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 12 Carrots Carrot prices resumed the weaker trend due to large volumes across markets. Weekly carrot prices were down 3% w/w and 22% y/y, closing the week at R2,245 per ton. Volumes of carrots traded reached 2,9 tons, up 1% w/w and 3% y/y. The short term price outlook for carrots remains bearish on volume pressure. Graph 14: Fresh Produce Markets - Carrot prices Aug Dec-14 1-May-15 4-Sep-15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) * last t wo dat a point s are preliminary Cabbages Cabbage prices moved sideways as large volumes were offset by strong uptake across markets. Weekly cabbage prices closed at R1,553 per ton, virtually unchanged w/w but down 27% y/y. Volumes of cabbages traded were up 7% w/w and 2% y/y at 1,542 tons. Prices are expected to move sideways with limited upward potential as demand moderates. Graph 15: Fresh Produce Markets - Cabbage prices Aug Dec May Sep- 15 Volumes (ton) (RHS) Vegetable prices: South Africa s Major Fresh Produce Markets. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban) Week ending 21 August 215 Average Price (R/t) w/w y/y Total Volume (t) w/w y/y Tomato % 23% 436 3% 2% Potato % -33% % 15.8% Onion % -12% % 12% Carrot % -22% 29 1% 3% Cabbage % -27% % 2% * Daily prices also available at

13 FNB Agri-Weekly Page 13 The Fruit Market Trends Major Fresh Produce Markets in SA (Graphs 16 to 2) Graph 16: Fresh Produce Markets - Apple prices 8, 3,5 7, 3, 6, 2,5 5, 2, 4, 1,5 3, 2, 1, 1, 5 23-Aug Dec Apr Aug-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) Graph 17: Fresh Produce Markets - Avocado prices 3, 8 27, 7 24, 21, 6 18, 5 15, 4 12, 3 9, 6, 2 3, 1 23-Aug Dec Apr Aug-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) Graph 18: Fresh Produce Markets - Banana prices 8, 6, 7, 5, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 23-Aug Dec Apr Aug-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) Graph 19: Fresh Produce Markets - Grapes prices 8, 9 7, 8 6, 7 5, 6 5 4, 4 3, 3 2, 2 1, 1 23-Aug Dec Apr Aug-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) Graph 2: Fresh Produce Markets - Mango prices Graph 2: Fresh Produce Markets - Pear prices 6, 1,4 6, 1,2 5, 1,2 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, , 3, 2, , 2 1, 2 23-Aug Dec Apr Aug-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) 23-Aug Dec Apr Aug-15 Quantity (ton) (RHS) FRUIT PRICES: Major FPM. (Average Pretoria, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban) Week ending 21 August 215 Average Price (R/t) w/w y/y Total Volume (t) w/w y/y Apples % 8% % -1% Avocados % 35% % -54% Bananas % 47% 365 7% -27% Grapes % 39% 18 13% -57% Pears % 24% 546 5% -13% * Daily prices also available at Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.