Crop monitoring and yield forecasting MARS activities in South America

Transcription

1 Crop monitoring and yield forecasting MARS activities in South America Raúl LÓPEZ LOZANO European Commission, Joint Research Centre GLOBCAST dissemination event Conference Centre Albert Borschette Brussels, 30 September 2015

2 Overview 1. Context of MARS Crop monitoring activities in South America 2. Results of monitoring activities on 2014/ Technical description of the MARS system 4. Future system improvements 2

3 Geographical window System overview Initial system driven by satellite and meteorological data Crop modelling component to be built in forthcoming development phases Extension covered: Arable land area of Argentina and Brazil Bottom Left Corner: , Top Right Corner: , 6.00 Resolution: 25 km Land cover: GLOBCOVER map (ESA) Soil data: Not yet implemented Administrative units: GAUL dataset, FAO 2014

4 Analysed crops Soybean Maize Wheat Sugarcane Agricultural production in 2013/14 (MTm) BRA ARG * Source: IBGE (BRA) and MAGyP (ARG) Fraction exported *only sugar

5 Analysed crops Significant trend in sown areas ARG BRA Increasing areas of soybean in both countries Large inter-annual variability of wheat area in Argentina (this year 5.3 Mha sown) Shift to second season maize in Brasil Need to consider area component in crop production forecasting

6 Scale of analysis Argentina Soybean Regional (Estado, Provincia) with a focus in the sub-national units representing 90% of the total national production In these regions a dedicated agro-meteorological analysis is done and regional yield forecasts are based on the system indicators Maize In the other areas, yield forecasts are based in trend yields or last years average A national yield forecast is produced aggregating regional forecasts Wheat

7 Scale of analysis Regional (Estado, Provincia) with a focus in the sub-national units representing 90% of the total national production Brazil Wheat Soybean Sugarcane Maize 1st Maize 2nd

8 Monitoring activities in the 2014/15 season Update Report (wheat) Dec/2014 Full Bulletin Mar/2015 Full Bulletin (soybean, maize) Apr/2015 Update report Brazil Oct/2015

9 Argentina 2014/2015 growing season Overall, adequate weather conditions for wheat growth in southern Buenos Aires and eastern La Pampa Precipitations close to the average during most of the season Temperatures slightly warmer than usual Less favourable weather in Córdoba and NW of Buenos Aires Precipitations were scarce during the grain-filling period Marked water deficit constraining yields

10 Argentina 2014/2015 growing season Remote sensing analysis Not straightforward, as wheat occupies a small fraction of arable land (<10%) In Southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa, NDVI time-series exhibit high biomass formation level

11 Crop distribution map Argentina 2014/2015 growing season Yield expectations are above 2013/2014, close to the average of the last five years Provisional figures for 2014/2015: 2.8 t/ha

12 Argentina 2014/2015 growing season Remote sensing analysis Buenos Aires Soybean and maize exhibited above-average vegetative growth in the north of the province, indicating high yield potentials In the centre and south-east, summer crops present an early senescence due to the hot temperatures and scarce rainfalls, affecting yields

13 Argentina 2014/2015 growing season Remote sensing analysis Córdoba Santa Fe Entre Ríos San Luis In these provinces, remote sensing products indicate favourable vegetative status for both crops through the summer High yields expected, although in some areas at the north of both provinces wet conditions may difficult harvest

14 Argentina 2014/2015 growing season Forecast yields are substantially higher than the average of the period MAGyP provisional figures are 7.35 t/ha MAGyP reports record of soybean yields: 3.17 t/ha

15 Brazil 2014/2015 growing season Soybean and 1 st season maize Growing period: October March 2015 Remote sensing imagery revealed above-average vegetative growth in the south

16 Brazil 2014/2015 growing season Soybean and 1 st season maize Growing period: October March 2015 Yield forecasts were above the results of the previous years In both cases, MARS forecasts coincide with CONAB figures

17 Brazil 2014/2015 growing season Maize 2 nd season Growing season: from March to July Highly favourable weather conditions in central-western states boosting crop growth Excellent season with record yields

18 Brazil 2014/2015 growing season Sugarcane Semi-perennial, harvested in May-July Hot and dry spell in January limited crop growth Yield forecasts expected below the results of 2014

19 System description Remote sensing plays a key role in the system as indicator of crop vegetative status Copernicus EC programme for earth observation NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) Spectral index from satellite imagery sensitive to vegetation status Indicator of vegetation photosynthetic activity Preliminary indicator of biomass production Quantitative analysis of regional time-series Spatial extent of anomalies in crop vegetative status

20 System description Remote sensing plays a key role in the system as indicator of crop vegetative status NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) Statistical models relating cumulated NDVI over a relevant period of the season and official yields Buenos Aires - Maize Valuable indicator to access crop yield in regions where that strong statistical regression exists Study on the reliability of NDVI to predict yield How much of the inter-annual yield variability is explaining?

21 System description Study on the reliability of NDVI to predict yield How much of the inter-annual yield variability is explaining? Quite satisfactory results in Argentina and south of Brazil for summer crops NDVI performs well in the north of Brazil for maize, but not for soybean Regional NDVI time series cannot capture well wheat inter-annual variability It represents a minor fraction of the arable land

22 System description Reliability assessment of NDVI to predict yield How much of the inter-annual yield variability is explaining? Buenos Aires Rio Grande Do Sul

23 System description Yield and area trends in the north of Brazil Example in Mato Grosso Is it related to area or yield? Progressive greening observed from satellite

24 Future developments during the operational phase Upgrading to the full system, building the crop modelling component Data collection with local partners Calibration of WOFOST/Cropsys and CANEGRO Implementation into the BioMA Modelling framework Enhancement of the meteorological component adding observed weather data Currently not enough data available in global WMO available datasets Depends strongly on the availability (and costs) of accessing to local networks Incorporating high resolution in the remote sensing component Sentinel 2 constellation (Copernicus programme), 10 meters resolution every 5 days from 2016/2017 Sentinel 2 over Sardinia (July/2015)

25 Thanks for your attention