Climate Change Impacts on Prairies Region

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts on Prairies Region Dave Sauchyn C-CIARN Prairies Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND CANADIAN AGRICULTURE: IMPACTS AND CAPACITY, Edmonton, Alberta, February 17th, 2005

2 The Canadian Plains Natural and socio-economic systems are sensitive to climatic variability, climatic change and extreme hydroclimatic events

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4 Mann, et al., 1999

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7 Past and Future Temperatures

8 uvic.ca/scenarios/

9 CGCM2 - - B21 (SRES) Mean Temperature Change Spring - MAM 2050s

10 Mean March Temperature Edmonton,

11 Projections for the future climate of the Prairie Provinces Temperature Precipitation Evaporation increasing, greater in winter than summer, greater at night than during day uncertainty, annually small decrease to significant increase significant increase Soil moisture Growing season Water Resources decrease increased length increased variability, earlier peak flows Extreme events increased frequency and magnitude

12 Aridity Index: P/PET Desertification: land degradation in arid, semiarid (P/PET < 0.5) and dry subhumid (0.5 < P/PET < 0.65) areas resulting mainly from adverse human impact (Middleton and Thomas, 1992)

13 The Present Climate semiarid humid

14 The Future Climate semiarid humid

15 PFRA, 2001

16 PFRA, 2001

17 relative decrease in stomatal conductance at elevated CO 2 (Bunce, 2000)

18 Desertification: Land degradation in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas, resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human impact (UNEP, 1994).

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21 McRae et al. 2000

22 McRae et al. 2000

23 Soil drifting near Oyen, Alberta, May 5, 2002

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25 Years of least precipitation at Edmonton, yr 2-years 3-years 4-years

26 Climatic Variability A projected increase in climate variability, including more frequent drought and major hydroclimatic events, is the most challenging climate change scenario. Social and biophysical systems respond to extremes of climate and to short-term departures from average conditions long before they respond to long-term trends in temperature or precipitation. More extreme climate anomalies are more likely to exceed natural and engineering thresholds beyond which the impacts of climate are much more severe.

27 Adaptation: larger coping range Upper Threshold Climatic variability Coping Range Lower Threshold Time (years) Climatic change Adaptation implementation

28 Increasing Drought Frequency Central North America Return Period (years) Length of Dry Spell (days) Today ~2070 Kharin and Zwiers (2000)

29 Palmer Drought Severity Index of -3 and less Summer JJA Data : Skinner Major North American Droughts Source: Elaine Wheaton

30 Dai, Trenberth and Qian (2004) increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses

31 Tree-Ring Chronologies

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33 Cumulative Departures From Median Precipitation June - July Precipitation Medicine Hat, Alberta, August - July Precipitation, Havre, Montana, Sauchyn et al., 2003

34 Cumulative Departures From Median Precipitation June - July Precipitation Medicine Hat, Alberta, August - July Precipitation, Havre, Montana, Sauchyn et al., 2003

35 Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2 nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

36 Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2 nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

37 The impact of climate change on the glaciers of the Canadian Rocky Mountain eastern slopes and implications for water resource-related adaptation in the Canadian prairies; "Phase I" - Headwaters of the North Saskatchewan River Basin PARC Project P55 M.N. Demuth and A. Pietroniro

38 Snow depth standardised anomaly 1 values are 5-year centred averages Eastern slopes/western Prairie snow depth in March Peyto Glacier winter balance Winter balance departure (m w.e. a )

39 Climate Change Impacts on Rocky Mountain glaciers Glacier cover has decreased rapidly in recent years; it now approaches the least extent in the past 10,000 years A phase of increased stream flow from global warming has past; basins have entered a potentially long-term trend of declining flows Declining supplies of glacier runoff have serious implications for the adaptive capacity of downstream surface water systems and for trans-boundary water allocation

40 40 Saskatchewan Wheat Yields, Wheat Yield (bu/acre) source: Statistics Canada

41 Departures (bu/acres) Wheat Yields Departures (mm) Precipitation

42 Climate and Human History The interaction of climate and history is not a matter of a single pivotal event, but an intricate dance of challenge and response involving changing ecosystems, technologies, and evolving political, cultural and social systems. For all the changes, the long-term pattern is consistent: the entire history of civilization has been a continual process of trading up -- of accepting vulnerability to large climate stresses in exchange for resistance to smaller ones. Fagan, Brian (2004) The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization.

43 100 June - July Precipitation Medicine Hat, Alberta,