Sheep Genetics and Genomics. Hamish Chandler Manager, Sheep Genetics Tom Hooke Project Officer, LAMBPLAN

Transcription

1 Sheep Genetics and Genomics Hamish Chandler Manager, Sheep Genetics Tom Hooke Project Officer, LAMBPLAN

2 LAMBPLAN update Genomics RBVs to ASBVs Industry projections and marketing

3 What s newin LAMBPLAN

4 Elite Listing Currently we have two ways of accessing an Elites list. Download Web search

5 Elites download Elites download has been in place for many years Selects top 300 on L2020 then re sorts Not all top C+ animals will be shown 32 bit Has filters

6 Web search Extremely useful tool for finding animals you want Same information plus more New pedigree display Save as pdf for printing or access offline

7 One source of truth More information Custom elite

8

9

10 Scanner accreditation

11

12 Accreditation every two years Data only accepted from accredited d scanners Accreditation number will need to be supplied when submitting scan data End result is accuracy and confidence

13 Pedigree Master Resources > Software for managing data Can update from PW No updates for PW

14 New Reports Selection efficiency On property consultation ti Database summary Trends Accuracy Management groups and effective progeny

15 Selection Efficiency

16 LAMBPLAN Terminal trends 140, ,000 PWWT PFAT PEMD , Nu umbers analysed 80,000 60,000 PWWT (kg) PFA AT / PEMD (mm) 40, , Drop Drop

17 LAMBPLAN Terminal trends PWWT PFAT PEMD 140, , , Nu umbers analysed 80,000 60,000 PWWT (kg) PFA AT / PEMD (mm) 40, , Drop Drop

18 Weight - Genetics + Reality CWT dev 0.5 * PWWT R² = WT (kg g)

19 Genomics

20 The ingredients of genetic improvement Selection intensity: Selection accuracy: Generation Interval: Variation: Select only the very best animals Pick the best ones more often Breed from them as soon as possible Different enough to pick from

21 Where are the benefits: Meat sheep Ability to select with confidence on eating quality, yield, nutritional quality (as well as growth, leanness and muscling) in young rams and ewes (overall accuracy) ) Dual-purpose and Merinos Ability to select in a more balanced way in young animals ie with BVs for adult wool traits, reproduction (overall accuracy) Ability to select young animals (generation interval) Plus management options / other things?

22 Eating Quality Intramuscular fat (IMF) Juiciness and flavour Shear force (SF) Tenderness Lean meat yield (LMY) Quality Quantity

23 Calculating Breeding Values Siblings Sire Dam Animal RESEARCH BREEDING BREEDING VALUE VALUE Heritability of trait Environmental influences Correlated traits

24 Four key strategies (pillars) Development of genomic technologies & new traits

25 Development of genomic technologies & Sheep CRC III Program 2 Meat New traits new traits Measurement technologies into plants Program 3 Genomics Sequencing key ancestors

26 Four key strategies (pillars) Development of genomic technologies & new traits Core Applied R&D

27 Phenotype Pedigree Genotype ASBV GBV Within flock BV Within flock BV Genetic Group No genetic group RBV

28 Phenotype Pedigree Genotype ASBV

29 Four key strategies (pillars) Development of genomic technologies & new traits Core Applied R&D Core infrastructure

30 Key components for genomic delivery Resource flock R&D Sheep Genetics Genomic tests

31 Why an ongoing reference population? No. Poll Dorse ts drop 2011 drop Best ram in 2003 Kurralea 5Star Carcase Plus

32 What structure? Terminal breeds WS White Wool / Dual Purpose Research hflocks Breeder flocks Core traits Core traits HTM traits BL Some HTM traits Novel traits Some novel traits Mer PD Shedding Breeds Composite maternals

33 Four key strategies (pillars) Development of genomic technologies & new traits Core Applied R&D Core infrastructure Delivery, implementation and capacity-building

34 Short term plan for genomic tests Sheep Genetics responsible for implementation of genomic tests Only available to Sheep Genetics subscribers Animals need to be in SG database Animals need at least sire pedigree ll l l i f i i d All calculations for integrating genotype data into ASBVs stay within AGBU

35 Why report as ASBVs? Decision to report as ASBVs. Based on; Genomics information feeds into LP/MS as an additional source of data Reporting as GBV would exclude other sources of data Consistent language for reporting Learn from U.S. Beef example Sale catalogue with EPDs and 3 different sets of GBVs for different tests

36 Available tests Test available from Sheep Genetics Parentage / Poll $17 SD test (12K) $50 Available for 8000 tests with CRC support Order via the Sheep Genetics web site HD test (50K) Reference population use Not for use by breeders New tools for research 700K test & DNA sequencing

37 How many should I test? Top 20% Case studies and modelling work done by the Sheep CRC and Stephen Lee Cost/Benefit relationship Unfavourable correlations Further training for service providers

38 Moving from RBVs to ASBVs Breeding values that include genomic information are reported back as RBVs to the breeder only. Moving to reporting back more widely Aiming for March/April Will allow breeders to start including EQ in their breeding objective Extension campaign to be back by the eating quality PDS results

39

40

41 Terminal RBV distribution IMF SF LMY 1% % % % % % % animals

42 Breed code 23 RBV distribution IMF SF LMY 1% % % % % % % animals

43 Eating Quality and Lean Meat Yield

44 Weight - Genetics + Reality CWT dev 0.5 * PWWT R² = WT (kg g)

45 Lean Meat Yield predicative trend 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 12% 1.2% 1.0%

46 Relationships between traits EQ vs LMY EQ/LMY vs PRODUCTION lmy imf imf shearf shearf lmy imf pwt pfat pemd

47 Responses to old/new C+ index old C+ new C pwwt pfat pemd lmy imf shearf5

48

49

50 2.00 Young sire program RBVs LM MY (%) IMF (%)

51 By next year Consumer score breeding values created Eating quality traits publicly available Ui Using information from: direct measurements, correlated traits, genomic information Part of standard industry indexes

52 Australian sheep flock

53 Ewe flock size intentions

54 Australian lamb slaughter

55 Australian sheep slaughter

56 Highest production on record

57 Largest market = domestic market

58 Where in the world does our lamb go? 54% or 214,000 tonnes swt of Australian lamb production left our shores in 2013 The Middle East was the largest export market 7. EU 11,700 swt 2. Middle East 59,800 swt 3. China 39,535 swt 4. USA 39,180 swt 5. Pacific 13,300 swt 1. Australia 210,000 cwt (46% of total production)

59 Where in the world does our lamb go? 56% or 211,000 tonnes swt of Australian lamb production is projected to leave our shores in 2014, down 1% on The Middle East the largest export market EU 12,000 swt 3. China 43,300 swt 4. USA 42,000 swt 2. Middle East 61,000 swt 5. Pacific 8,000 swt 1. Australia 193,000 cwt (44% of total production)

60 Australian lamb exports

61 MARKETING UPDATE WHAT DO CONSUMERS WANT? HOW IS DEMAND LOOKING? WHAT WILL DRIVE FUTURE DEMAND?

62 THE FIVE PILLARS OF CONSUMER DEMAND Enjoyment Convenience Nutrition Integrity Value Ensure quality Reminding/ Educating Maintaining expectations are educating consumers on consumer trust met and consumers on essential role of that red meat exceeded ease of red meat in diet products are preparing red safe Reminding consumers of appeal and popularity of red meat meat cuts Developing easyto-prepare new products Encouraging consumers at grocery point of sale and foodservice to choose red meat Researching impact of red meat diets on health and well being Building confidence that industry practices are responsible and sustainable Recognising that red meat needs to remain affordable, with range of price options 6 2

63

64

65 LET S BE CLEAR WE CAN ONLY ADD VALUE IN ONE OF 2 WAYS More $$$ for the same thing Only 2 ways to get it More things for the same $$$ ANYTHING ELSE IS A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE TO THE SAME THING 65

66 MARKETING UPDATE WHAT DO CONSUMERS WANT? HOW IS DEMAND LOOKING? WHAT WILL DRIVE FUTURE DEMAND?

67 CATEGORY VALUE SHARE LAMB HOLDING ITS OWN IN A REMARKABLY STABLE CATEGORY 45% 40% Xmas Xmas 40.8%40.6% 40.0% 40.2%40.4% 40.4%39.9%39.0% 39.6% 39.1% 38.8% 39.2% 40.2% 38.6% 39.4% 39.9% 40.2%40.2% 39.5%39.6% 38.8%38.7%38.1% 38.9% 37.8% 38.2% 38.7%39.2% 37.8% 38.0% 37.3% 37.2%36.7% 37.3%37.3% 36.8% Xmas 35% 34.7% 34.5% 33.1% 30% 20% 26.6%26.6% 27.0% 26.3%25.5% 26.6% 26.9%26.9% 27.3% 27.0%26.9% 25.3% 24 9% 26.5% 26.8%27.1% 26.3%26.4% 26.6% 27.1% 26.8%26.6% 27.0%27.1% 26.1% 24.9% 24.8% 27.0% 27.5%27.9% 28.0%27.8% 28.2% 27.5% 27.7%27.2%27.3% 27.8% 26.6% 25% Beef 14.9% 14.9% 14.1%14.0% 1%14 1%14 1%14 1% %14 1% %13.3%12.9% 13.3% 13.7%13.6% 14.5% 13.3% 13.7% 13.8% 14.3% 14.0%14.0%13.8% 14.5% 14.1%14.0% 14.1%14.1%14.0% 13.3% 13.6% 13.9%13.9%13.8%14.0% 14.2% 14.1%14.2%14.2% 12.7%12.8% 12.8% 13.0% 12.8% 11.9% 12.2% 15.4% 12.5% 15.3% 9.5% 9.9%9.9%10.2% 10.0% 10.4% 10.2%10.1% 10.3% 9.7% 10.2% 10.0% 13.6% 9.8% 9.6%9.5% 10.0% 10.3%10.4% 10.2%10.3%10.4%10.2%10.4%10.5% 9.7%9.8%10.1% 10.5%10.4%10.3%10.4%10.7%10.7%10.8% 10.3% 10.9% 12.3% 10% 11.5% 10.6% 9.8% 8.8% 8.5%8.2% 68% 7.3%7.4%8.1% 7.7% 8.1% 8.9% 9.3% 9.0% 9.2% 9.4%9.5%9.7% 8.0% 8.1% 8.5%8.5%9.0% 9.0% 9.3% 8.3% 7.5%7.5%7.6% 7.8% 7.6% 7.9%8.7%9.4% 5% 6.8% 25.3% Chicken 15% Seafood 1.3% 1.5%1.4% 1.6%1.4% 1.7%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.5%1.6%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.2% 1.0% 1.3%1.3%1.2%1.2%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.0% Lamb Pork Veal 0% SOURCE: NIELSEN HOMESCAN

68 Meat Consumption Slight decline for red meat consumption Red Meat consumption 2010 = 2.98 serves a week 2011 = 2.93 serves a week 2012 = 2.93 serves a week 2013 = 2.83 serves a week Serves Beef Chicken Lamb Pork Fish/Seafood Q. How many times in an average 7-day week would you eat these particular meats at home? Base: Total sample 2013 n=1113 Significantly higher and lower at 95% CI 68

69 CATEGORY ROLES BEEF AND CHICKEN MUCH MORE PLANNED, WHILE LAMB AND PORK ARE IMPULSE BUYS Planned % Particular Use % Impulse% Fresh Chicken Cuts 74% 41% 25% Fresh Beef Cuts 70% 41% 30% Fresh Lamb Cuts 62% 24% 36% Fresh Pork Cuts 46% 20% 53% SOURCE: ADVANTAGE GROUP INTERNATIONAL - SHOPPER TRACKER

70 Integrity Overtime Lamb integrity has increased and is the highest of all the meats. 100% 90% % cellent/very good Top 2 Box- Ex 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 51% 53% 52% 49% 54% 48% 51% 49% 47% 45% 44% 40% 39% 41% 37% 38% 39% 36% 32% 26% % Beef Chicken Lamb Pork Fish/Seafood Q. Overall, do you think that the way.. are farmed and raised, and the way the.. industry is regulated is Q. Overall, do you think that the way Australian fish/seafood are produced and regulated is... Base: 2013 Beef n=554 Chicken n=363 Lamb n=559 Pork n=370 Fish/Seafood n=375 Significantly higher and lower at 95% CI 70

71 Health Problems Around a third of those who associate Beef and Lamb with health problems link that to high cholesterol and heart related issues. Q. You indicated that you think beef/lamb is more likely to be linked with health problems than other meats, which health problems are you thinking of? Base: 2013 people who think beef/lamb is more likely to be linked with health problems Beef n=101 Lamb n=102 71

72 Why Eating Less Meat But health not a significant driver of lamb consumption cost and enjoyment more important Beef Chicken Lamb Pork Fish/Seafood Q. Why do you say you eat less now compared with a couple of years ago? Base: 2013 Beef n=140 Chicken n=36 Lamb n=147 Pork n=74 Fish/Seafood n=52 72

73 WHAT ABOUT EATING QUALITY?

74 Perceptions of lamb eating quality are strong All quality measures have increased since Top 2 box 2011 Top 2 box 2012 Top 2 box % 66% 60% 27% 38% 72% 65% 35% 40% 75% 68% 36% Q. The following are statements people have made about buying and cooking lamb. Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with them. Base: 2013 Lamb n=559 Significantly higher and lower at 95% CI 74

75 Eating Quality Difference to Average Beef Chicken Lamb Pork Fish/Seafood Overall, the eating quality of... has improved over the last 3 years -1% 4% 4% -4% -2% I can trust my normal butcher/seafood store or supermarket to sell good quality 0% 4% 7% -2% -11% I believe... that is 'on special' or marked down is still of a high quality -1% 6% 9% 0% -12% I trust the quality of... more than other meats 2% 3% 6% -4% -5% Top 2 Box Strongly agree/ Tend to agree Difference from average Q. The following are statements people have made about buying and cooking [meat]. Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with them. Base: 2013 Beef n=554 Chicken n=363 Lamb n=559 Pork n=370 Fish/Seafood n=375 75

76 RECOMMENDATIONS Faster Better Cheaper is an expectation of the market BETTER is especially key for a premium position product like lamb Listen to supply chain signals (no consumer researcher will tell you what to grow)

77 Summary Production levels are expected to remain stable Domestic and Export demand as expected to remain strong Eating Quality will be essential to underpin demand However already seen as relatively expensive, therefore will need to continue to improve traits like growth and yield.