Global meat production, drivers and challenges

Transcription

1 Global meat production, drivers and challenges Global Forum agri benchmark Beef and Sheep Conference 2013 Claus Deblitz Thünen Institute of Farm Economics York Claus Deblitz

2 Contents 1. The project behind 2. Global figures 3. Drivers 4. Challenges Page 2 Claus Deblitz

3 The project behind Claus Deblitz

4 agri benchmark understanding agriculture worldwide Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

5 Why global farm-level benchmarking? We are all directly or indirectly linked via markets and product flows Decision making is done by millions of producers every day It needs an approach in close cooperation with producers On global scale there is a lack of comparable farm data Collecting and comparing this data and information assists in Understanding agriculture worldwide Know where you are Learn why you are where you are Conclude what can be changed to develop Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

6 agri benchmark at a glance Main supporting partner Network Coordination Clients Analysis and projects Product branches Conferences Knowhow Data Capacity building Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

7 Branches in the agri benchmark Network Cash Crop Beef and Sheep Pig and Poultry Dairy (EDF) Horticulture Organic Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Other Cow-calf Finishing Ewes Finishing Under construction Sows Finishing Under construction Under construction Apple Grapes Under construction Wheat Potatoes Milk Cow-calf Coffee Bananas Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

8 Countries in the agri benchmark Network 2013 Countries Farms Cow-calf New countries 2013 Ireland (beef/sheep) Uruguay (beef/sheep) China (sheep) Beef finishing Sheep Participating countries 2013 Contacts for further growth Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

9 Research partners of the Beef and Sheep Network Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

10 Typical farms the principle Imagine you have a guest from a foreign country who is interested to see how sheep farming is done in your country. You would want to show your guest a farm that is located in an important sheep producing region, using the common technology for sheep production, running the prevailing production system, having a not too small and not too big size, using the prevailing combination of labour, land and capital. In other words, you want to show your guest a typical farm! Page Claus Deblitz Global meat production, drivers and challenges

11 Global figures Claus Deblitz

12 The world s top beef producers 2011 ('000 tons) USA 11,990 Page 12 Claus Deblitz Source: FAOStat 2013

13 Brazil and China were the growth promotors for beef Average vs ('000 tons) China 1,370 Brazil 2,330 Page 13 Claus Deblitz Source: FAOStat 2013

14 China dominates sheep production 2011 ('000 tons) USA 11,988 China 2,050 Source: FAOStat 2013 Page 14 Claus Deblitz

15 Sheep production developments diverse Average vs ('000 tons) Iran -235 China Source: FAOStat 2013 Page 15 Claus Deblitz

16 China dominates (!) pig production 2011 ('000 tons) China 51,530 Page 16 Claus Deblitz Source: FAOStat 2013

17 China, USA and Vietnam with biggest growth in pig Average vs ('000 tons) China 9, Page 17 Claus Deblitz Source: FAOStat 2013

18 USA, China, Brazil lead chicken production 2011 ('000 tons) USA 17,110 China 12,080 Brazil 11,000 Page 18 Claus Deblitz Source: FAOStat 2013

19 .. and they also lead chicken expansion Average vs ('000 tons) USA 2,580 China 2,905 Brazil ,130 Source: FAOStat 2013 Page 19 Claus Deblitz

20 Winners and losers in beef trade Average vs. average Beef imports ('000 tons) Beef exports ('000 tons) Source: FPD/FAS/USDA United States Mexico Japan EU-27 Canada Taiwan South Korea Chile Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Venezuela Iran Russia EU-27 Canada Ukraine Argentina New Zealand Australia United States Nicaragua Belarus Uruguay Mexico Paraguay Brazil India Page 20 Claus Deblitz

21 Winners and losers in sheep trade Average vs. average Sheep imports ('000 tons) Sheep exports ('000 tons) Source:: GTIS France Australia Greece Ireland United Kingdom New Zealand Japan Bulgaria Germany Portugal Belgium Belgium Argentina New Zealand Spain Sweden United States United States Uruguay Russia Netherlands Netherlands China United Kingdom Page 21 Claus Deblitz

22 Winners and losers in pig trade Average vs. average Pig imports ('000 tons) United States Philippines Canada Australia Hong Kong Ukraine Japan South Korea Mexico Russia China Pig exports ('000 tons) South Korea Australia Norway Ukraine Mexico China Belarus Chile Brazil Canada EU-27 United States Source: FPD/FAS/USDA Page 22 Claus Deblitz

23 Winners and losers in chicken trade Average vs. average Chicken imports ('000 tons) Russia China Argentina Japan Hong Kong Kazakhstan Angola Venezuela South Africa Mexico Saudi Arabia EU-27 Iraq Chicken exports ('000 tons) China Ukraine Belarus Canada Chile Thailand Turkey Argentina EU-27 United States Brazil Source: FPD/FAS/USDA Page 23 Claus Deblitz

24 Drivers Claus Deblitz

25 Fundamentals basically unchanged meets supply Natural conditions, natural disasters, climate change Framework conditions: policy, economic, technology Production, productivity Growing demand Population growth Income growth Changing eating habits and results in price developments basically pointing upwards Page 25 Claus Deblitz Source: news.com

26 After years of decline meat prices point upwards (Index 2002 = 100) Meat Price Index Poultry Meat Pig Meat Bovine Meat Ovine Meat Source: Own calculations based on FAO 2013 Page 26 Claus Deblitz

27 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Beef prices upwards (Index 2000 = 100) Index well above 200 in 2012 (USD) Argentina Australia Brazil China Indonesia South Africa Ukraine Poland Index around/less than 200 in 2012 (USD) Austria Canada Colombia France Germany Italy Spain UK USA Ireland 0 0 Source: agri benchmark, based on national statistics Page 27 Claus Deblitz

28 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12... and livestock prices too (Index 2000 = 100) Index well above/around 200 in 2012 (USD) Argentina Australia Brazil Kazakhstan Indonesia South Africa Ukraine Poland Index around/less than 200 in 2012 (USD) Austria Canada Colombia France Germany Italy Spain UK USA Ireland 0 0 Source: agri benchmark, based on national statistics Page 28 Claus Deblitz

29 Cost developments (USD and %) USD per 100 kg carcass weight Page 29 Claus Deblitz Austria Germany Spain Italy UK Poland USA Argentina Argentina Brazil China Australia South Africa Increases in percent 20 % 70 % 50 % % 100 % 150 % 30 % 20 %

30 AT-30 DE-1100 FR-80 ES-150 UK-105 CZ-420 UA-295 US-160B MX-120 BR-1070 CN-2 ID-4 AU-600 ZA-250 Cow-calf: margins mainly driven by weaner prices USD per 100 kg live weight Margin over cash costs Weaner price Page 30 Claus Deblitz

31 4 beef production systems Feed % in dry matter Management/ Housing Extent of purchase feed Pasture > 30% pasture Outdoor year round or part of the year Low Silage > 30% silage and other forages Closed or semiopen barns with slatted floors and/or straw bedding Medium Feedlot > 50% grains and other energy feed Confined, large, open pens, partially with sun-covers High Cut & Carry > 30% freshly cut grass & other vegetation Mix of pens and grazing of paths and paddies Low Page 31 Claus Deblitz

32 Feedlots: low margins depend heavily on animal purchase and feed costs ( ) USD per 100 kg carcass weight 1000 Returns Margin 800 Animal purchase 600 Feed costs ES IT- 2880T US AR- 26K BR CN- 940 ZA- 75K Page 32 Claus Deblitz

33 Pasture farms ( ): Margin depends mainly on beef price, animal purchase and land USD per 100 kg carcass weight AR-750 BR-340 BR-600B AU-540 Returns Margin Animal purchase Feed costs Land costs Page 33 Claus Deblitz

34 Silage farms ( ): mixed drivers USD per 100 kg carcass weight 600 Mix Price Price and feed Returns Margin Animal purchase Feed costs AT-120 DE-280 FR-70 UK-90 PL-30 Page 34 Claus Deblitz

35 DE-600 DE-1200 ES-800 ES-930 ES-1500 FR-470 FR-860 UK-400 UK-500-UL UK-500-LL MX-300 UY-600 CN-270 CN-340 AU-1250 AU-2000 AU-3000 NZ-3200 DZ-300 MA-300 NA-2400 TN-40 ZA-850 ZA-1500 Sheep receipts: a wide variation USD per 100 kg live weight Other returns Government payments Wool and skin market receipts Weaned lamb receipts Breeding livestock receipts Slaughter animals receipts Cull receipts Europe Asia Oceania Africa Americas Page 35 Claus Deblitz

36 DE-600 DE-1200 ES-800 ES-930 ES-1500 FR-470 FR-860 UK-400 UK-500-UL UK-500-LL MX-300 UY-600 CN-270 CN-340 AU-1250 AU-2000 AU-3000 NZ-3200 DZ-300 MA-300 TN-40 NA-2400 ZA-850 ZA-1500 Sheep profitability: not everywhere bad USD per 100 kg live weight Europe Opportunity costs Depreciation Cash costs Total returns Asia Oceania Africa Americas Page 36 Claus Deblitz

37 Challenges Claus Deblitz

38 Challenges (or drivers?) Diseases (Bird Flu, FMD, Schmallenberg, Blue Tongue) Technical barriers (growth promoters, ractopamine) Food safety and scandals (horse meat, E-coli, antibiotics ) Animal welfare and related regulations (sow housing, castration of piglets, cage egg production ) Environmental restrictions on production (license to produce) Exchange rates Health issues attributed to meat consumption Increasing vegetarianism (coming from low level) Page 38 Claus Deblitz

39 The particular challenge for beef Land requirement Beef Sheep Pig Chicken Feed conversion Cycles per year 0.3 (pasture) (silage) 2-3 (feedlot) Emissions Herbivores Can use (marginal) grasslands Granivores Need grains animal high medium low low manure medium low high medium feed low-medium low-medium depends on N used for grains sequestration not clear not clear low low Convenience (prepare) low low-medium medium-high high Page 39 Claus Deblitz

40 BR-600B AU-150 BR-140 CO-350 AR-380 AR-750 AU-85 UK-80 Increasing performance in the pasture system Daily weight gain (g/day) Finishing period (days) Page 40 Claus Deblitz

41 Bridging the gap between top and bottom 25 Multi-stakeholder approach coordinated by FAO/AGAL Gov ts, NGOs, industry, research, FAO Three focus areas: 1. Closing ( reducing ) the efficiency gap (agri benchmark / Ernesto Reyes chairs this Focus area) 2. Restoring value to grassland (overgrazing, desertification ) 3. From waste to worth (manure, water, nutrient, environment) Page 41 Claus Deblitz

42 Increasing productivity in the pasture system More calves per cow Genetics Reproduction management Reduction of mortality/disease Improved pasture management Subdivision / fencing Rotational grazing Fertilisation New pasture varieties >> more cows and calves per ha >> higher weight gains >> more weight per ha Page 42 Claus Deblitz

43 Moving finishing from pasture to feedlot Move cattle from pasture to feedlot Seasonal (Brazil), approx. 10 % Generally (Argentina), > 50 % days >> less land required for finishing >> more cows/calves can be kept on remaining grassland >> higher carcass weights >> consistency of carcasses >> improved beef quality? >> environmental issues? Page 43 Claus Deblitz

44 Ingredients Incentives Prices rather than subsidies Integration of producers (where does my beef go?) Technology Genetics Mechanisation Growth promoters Analysis / benchmarking With others and over time Buy or share a weigher Participate in agri benchmark Management Animals (health, performance) Feed (yield and quality) Marketing (Further) education Research Extension and advisory Page 44 Claus Deblitz

45 My personal conclusions High meat prices (and costs) in the world, not only in Europe Profitability low and driven by feed, land, energy and labour (mainly in emerging economies) (Decoupled) government payments and other enterprises important for whole farm profitability Sheep in 2012 slightly better off than beef Productivity increases will happen, mainly in pasture systems and through transition of finishing from pasture to feedlot Big potential from reducing the gap between bottom 25 and top 25 Education, incentives and extension services are key Page 45 Claus Deblitz International comparison

46 agri benchmark passionate about facts Claus Deblitz Thünen Institute of Farm Economics Bundesallee 50, Braunschweig Germany Tel.: Fax: Internet: Page 46 Claus Deblitz