Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in West Africa 1 1 FAO Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division WMO-ECOWAS-ILRI-AfDB-FAO-AEMet-ICRISAT International Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change in West African Agriculture, Ouagadougou, April 2009

2 26 April 2009 Overview

3 Overview: the growing role of agriculture Risk is the "product" of extreme conditions and a vulnerable system; risk increases and undergoes globalization Agriculture is a major player in climate change: as a source of greenhouse gases and user of water resources; therefore, agriculture is also an integral component of the solutions Mitigation is the long-term solution, but adaptation continues to be needed now International Multilateral Environmental Agreements must develop mechanisms that are relevant for smallholders in semi-arid countries

4 Food aid and food prices. A lesson? Source: Hess & Syroka, CRMG/ARD, 2004

5 Due to demand, food prices remain high Food prices remain at high levels in many developing countries; February 2009 prices over previous year: Niger, sorghum +29 % ; Senegal, imported rice +48 %

6 Causes of high food prices Source: Evans, 2008: Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development Income growth and increasing demand, notably in emerging economies like China and India, about 50% Biofuels as a source of demand for grain, about 30% Climate variability, maybe 10% Food supply is quite inelastic, i.e. supply responds relatively slowly to increases in demand Costs of agricultural inputs and especially energy are rising Speculation, urbanization... Land and water scarcity and rice and whet yield gaps Long-term neglect of agricultural investments

7 Agriculture is a major player in climate change Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gases: about 30% of emissions Most agricultural GHG are "losses" that can be reduced by increasing eciency of agriculture Agriculture "manages" about 45% of land biomass and about 90% of eective water uses About 80 GT of soil carbon were lost through degradation since 1850

8 Carbon pools (GtonsC) Williams et al., 2007

9 Mitigation potential Global mitigation 0-20 US$/tCO2

10 Mitigation and adaptation Adaptation measures: water harvesting techniques, warning systems, crop insurance, micro-climate manipulation, advisory services to farmers incl. Farm Adaptive Dynamic Optimization, breeding for higher WUE Mitigation and adaptation "careful" biofuel approach (environmental and food security impacts) advantages of soil sequestration include: increased soil fertility, optimized used of fertilizer (reduction of emissions), improved soil biodiversity, improved soil water storage capacity, i.e. more regular agricultural output soil carbon sequestration through various forms of conservation agriculture: potential is real, but insucient data are available to sell the concept as a post-kyoto option (see Latin American experience) soil sequestration to be introduced in combination with other risk-reducing techniques (Insurance, micro-credit)

11 2008 picture of the year, Sweden Ethanol factory in Brazil

12 Opportunities for involving people in C sequestration Applies to grasslands; Source: Petri, Batello, Villani & Nachtergaele, 2009

13 An option for the post-2012 regime FAO submission to AWG-LCA3: 1 Soil carbon to be recognized as an acceptable sequestration option 2 Operational issues (e.g. accuracy and cost of carbon mapping) to be sorted out 3 Governments to design national policies to 1 in general, improve use of weather and climate products by farmers 2 promote local soil carbon sequestration initiatives in crop- and range-lands. Practices include conservation tillage, mulching, cover crops, integrated nutrient management including use of manure and compost, and agroforestry, as well as improved management of pastures and rangelands. 3 reduce risk associated with of initial adoption of carbon storage practices 4 distribute benets to small-holders

14 To conclude... CC & increasing climate variability, rising temperatures, water shortages & soil losses place severe limits on food production. Food scarcity and resulting higher prices are pushing some countries into chaos ( L.R. Brown, Sci.Am. May 2009) Need to improve capacity to model and plan the future Even in the absence of a declared climate crisis (comparable to the Sahelian droughts), vulnerability of West African countries has increased due to global factors and internal ones associated with land use Adaptation and soil carbon restoration has the potential to help alleviate the risks by increasing output & reducing variability of food production triggering post-2012 UNFCCC nancial mechanisms that apply in small and non-forested countries developing national policies to promote soil carbon storage & reduce risks during the adoption phase of the new policies