STUDY THE EFFECT OF WHEAT MARKET LIBERALIZATION ON RURAL WELFARE IN IRAN

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1 69 STUDY THE EFFECT OF WHEAT MARKET LIBERALIZATION ON RURAL WELFARE IN IRAN Koohar Khaledi, h.d. of Agricultural Economic, Department of Agricultural Economic, Kermanhah Branch, Ilamic Azad Univerity, Kermanhah, Iran. Andiheh Haghighatnezhad Shirazi h.d. of Agricultural Economic, Department of Agricultural Economic, Science and Reearch Branch, Ilamic Azad Univerity, Tehran, Iran. ABSTRACT Thi tudy aim to tudy the effect of elimination of government intervention and liberalization in wheat market in rural area in Iran on conumer welfare with time erie data for An alternative partial equilibrium model wa developed to examine the welfare effect of wheat trade liberalization. Reult how that on producer ide, government budget (ubidy on production), and producer welfare are decreae but foreign exchange i increae, on conumer ide, government budget (ubidy expenditure), foreign exchange and conumer welfare are decreae under open acce(without conidering conumer in urban area). Keyword: Welfare, Trade liberalization, artial equilibrium, wheat, rural area, Iran.

2 70 Introduction: In order to achieve and maintain national elf-ufficiency in baic agriculture product, the pot-revolutionary government of Iran in the 1980 adopted a variety of program uch a price upport and input ubidie, a well a ome food program and border control. Since 1990, within a national trategy of economic liberalization and the development of a more competitive and market-oriented farming ector, policy ha been redirected toward abolihing ubidie. However, there are till market-uch a thoe in wheat, cotton, meat and rice in which government intervene, apparently to protect both producer and conumer. Moreover, the government i till the larget economic agent in the country, controlling directly or indirectly nearly three-quarter of all economic activitie, including international trade (Bkhahoodeh and Thompon, 2006). The Iranian government intervene in the wheat market by controlling the import to upport conumer and prevent the increaing of price. According to available information, the conumer price of wheati lower than producer price and the world price (evaluated with the exchange rate in the black market) i higher than dometic price at 1981 to2000;but at the ret of period( )producer price i higher than the world price. After revolution in 1979, the government had total control over the wheat market. Self-ufficiency wa the goal and government intervention wa jutified on the baic of economic factor uch a foreign exchange aving, increaing in production, and political reaon uch a heavy dependence on import which could create problem at home in cae of external hock uch a a large increae in price, etc. On the conumption ide, government intervention tarted in the 1980 with a conumption ubidy and quota ytem to avoid the effect of increae in world price. It mean that temporary to reduce dometic price inflation and maintain nutritional tatu of low-income group during the war ( ). Thi policy lated until 2000, expanding conumption fater than production, and preventing Iran from reaching elf-ufficiency. Thi conflict between elf-ufficiency and ubidizing tarted to change during 1990, due to ecalating budget cot caued by thee policie, which forced the government to cut expenditure by grad ually reducing the conumer ubidy and quotation. Such policy reform create both cot and benefit to different egment of ociety and certainly producer and conumer welfare would be affected by change in production, conumption, trade flow and price (Monterio da ilva and Grenne, 1999). The development of an analytical framework for wheat trade policy analyi in the preence of complex i important. Furthermore, the recently introduced general equilibrium model for analyzing trade liberalizati on i developed (Monterio da ilva and Grenne, 1999 & Hanneon, 2000). The development of an analytical framework for trade liberalization in product originated from producer with regulated open acce and regulated retricted acce i important, ince uch management exit in everal and probably mot worldwide producer. The partial equilibrium approach of the preent paper link together baic reult from trade theory with long run comparative tatic of both producer and conumer economic (Nielen, 2009). We aim to develop a framework for wheat trade policy analyi under trade liberalization, and by conidering the theoretical bai for empirical welfare analyi of wheat trade. A partial equilibrium approach i developed and circumtance under which trade liberalization caue welfare gain and loe are identified theoretically. Not only i trade liberalization modeled a removal of a tariff, but alo applie to analyi of reduction in other trade meaure that open up or increae trade between countrie (Nielen, 2009). Four plan are under conideration by WTO in order to liberalize global agricultural trade. Thee plan were ubmitted to the WTO miniterial meeting in Hong Kong, in 2005 but the member refue to accept them. All the formula include a reduction in border tariff, dometic farm upport and export ubidy (Chang, 2007) The purpoe of thi paper i to evaluate the poible conumer welfare affected by wheat trade liberalization in rural area in Iran. In addition, it wa aumed that ociety of rural area can gain from abolition of the government trade control. Such an aement hould be ueful for policymaker in Iran who intend to move toward a market oriented agricultural ector. Our paper extend the analyi through 2007, provide econometric etimation of upply and demand parameter, and ue an alternative method for calculating the real exchange rate. The econd ection the method and data in the analyi are preented. The reult are dicued in the third ection, and ome concluion are drawn in the lat ection.

3 71 Material and Method: Thi ection decribe the partial equilibrium analyi approach in agricultural trade liberalization a well a it contraint. Baed on the partial equilibrium model outline in a cloe economy, the welfare effect of international trade liberalization in a wheat market can be analyzed. Standard partial equilibrium and comparative tatic analyi i ued Marhallian concept of economic urplu (Currie et al, 1971). The concept of economic urplu are derived from Fig.2. In thi tudy, the welfare effect of directing wheat toward a market-oriented ytem are evaluated by applying a partial equilibrium analyi to the data. The ynthetic part of the model conit of two equation for each product: (i) upply and (ii) demand.net trade clear the diequilibrium between dometic upplie and demand (United Nation Conference for Trade and Development, 2005). A The upply function i: ln Q t = α 1 ln it + α 2 it 1 + α 3 ln jt + α 4 lnq t 1 + α 5 lnz α + e t Where,Q t i the production of product i, i i the correponding price and j the price of other product (ubtitute and complement), and Z α are other determinitic variable (Stoforo, 2003). Own price, cro price and income are the main explanatory variable in demand equation. The general form of the demand equation i follow: ln Q t d = β 0 + β 1 ln it + β 2 ln it 1 + β 3 ln jt + β 4 ln jt 1 + β 3 lni it 1 + e t d Where,Q t i the demand of product i, i i the own price and j the price of other product (ubtitute and complement),i income (Stoforo, 2003). M i = Q d t Q t + X i N ( X i M i ) = 0 n=1 To compute the total welfare change, in the general cae, it i formally neceary to calculate the integral under upply curve (producer urplu change or change in production welfare) and demand curve (conumer urplu change or change in conumption welfare) and the change in government budget (LagareTavora, 2008). Demand i from demander, which include live in rural area while upply i contituted by all producer. CS = w Q d i dp Or CS = c Q d c i dp S = w Q w i dp p Where: CS: Conumer urplu change S: roducer urplu change Q d i : Demand in zone i Q i : Supply in zone i p : roducer price c : Conumer price w : World price A border price repreent the cot to the economy of producing a good and enable the analyt to determine if the country i an efficient producer of that commodity. According to the logic of the border paradigm, it i a wate of country reource to produce a good for which it ha little or no cot advantage (Takok, 1990). Algebraically, the border price i defined a w = e where e repreent the exchange rate. The exchange rate reflect the opportunity cot of a unit of foreign currency to the dometic economy. The exchange rate i important epecially where the official exchange rate i overvalued. The exchange rate employed to calculate the border price, hould reflect the real economic cot of the dometic currency (Krueger, 1988). A indicate above, we can calculate producer and conumer welfare, change in government budget by applying partial equilibrium analyi, alo, Monterio da ilva & Grenne[2]indicate that ocial cot, foreign exchange, dometic upport expenditure(ubidy expenditure to upport dometic price)on both ide of the market, can be calculate. The following contant elaticity upply and demand function of wheat were etimated in thi tudy: ln Q t = α 0 +α 1 ln w 1 + α 2 ln + α 3 ln 1 + α 4 ln g + α 5 ln g 1 + α 6 ln c 1 + α 7 lnq t 1 + α 8 lnq w t 1 +e t Dometic production wa expreed a a function, which of producer price for wheat, producer price of oya bean, grain and canola a ubtitute commoditie, lagged production, import of wheat are the variable in thi function.

4 INDIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (IJMS) EISSN X ISSN ln Q d d t = β 0 + β 1 ln cw + β 2 ln crp + β 3 d ln t + β 4 lni t + β 5 Q t 1 + β 6 lnq t +β 7 lnim t + e t Conumption of rural area wa modeled a a function of conumer price in thi area, the ratio price rice and tomato a ubtitute commodity, rural income, population growth of rural area, production (becaue people in rural area have conumption of their own production) and import of wheat variable. A lagged conumption and production variable wa alo ued in the demand and upply equation to achieve any permanent change which could have occurred at the wheat market. The welfare effect of the wheat trade regime can now analyzed. Without tate trading and at the black market exchange rate, the market would equilibrate at the world price w, with dometic production atq, conumptionq d and import of Q m = Q d Q. With the regime, the dometic market price i higher than, with dometic production atq, conumptionq d, and tate import of Q m = Q d Q. Thu, trade regime caued conumer loe economic welfare equivalent to area (that conumer price wa lower than world price w ), value given by the area w BH. On the producer ide, trade regime in period , that producer price wa lower than world price w, producer a a group gain economic welfare equivalent to area w AD. However, in the period , that dometic price wa higher than world price, producer lo equal to area w AD. The area ABQ Q repreented the amount that the Iranian government gain by decreae of import (becaue of increaed in production) on producer ide. On the demand ide in period , Iranian government achieved benefit of trade regime, equal to area BFCQ d Q d. In contrat, in period , government loe (area FCQ d Q d ) becaue of decreaed conumer price of trade regime (without conidering conumer in urban area). Therefore, revenue of tariff on conumption ide in period equal to area BFDG. So, they may be ummarized a follow: 2500 Figure1.rice of wheat, Iran قیمت مصرفی قیمت تولید کننده قیمت جهانی Source: and p of tatitic center and Agricultural Minitry of Iran, w evaluated with the exchange rate in the black market A Fig. 1 how the conumer price of wheat below the world price and producer price. In period (Fig. 2), government intervention in the wheat market in rural area of Iran to upport conumer and producer, o, et conumer and producer price lower than world price, in thi condition, the functional repreentation of the conducted welfare analyi i: w roducer welfare : ( w AD ) = f(, k, Q t 1, Im t )d = Q ) ε w ]

5 73 Conumer welfare:(- w BH) = w f( Social cot effect on production: ( w )Q - Q ) ε w ], r, Inc t, t, r t, Im t, Q d 1 )d = - Q d ) ε w ] Social cot effect on conumption= ( w )Q d -- Q d ) ε w ] c Foreign exchange effect on production= w (Q Q ), and on conumption= w (Q d Q d ) Change in quantity produced= Q Q, and in quantity conumed=q d Q d Net trade after market liberalization=q d Q In period (Fig. 3), government upport (ubidy expenditure) of producer wheat market wa increaed, o, et producer price higher than world price and however, becaue of upport in conumer ide by government, likewie before, et conumer price lower than world price, in thi condition, the functional repreentation of the conducted welfare analyi i: roducer welfare :( w AD ) = f(, p, Q t 1, Im t )d = Q [( ) ε 1+ε w ] w Conumer welfare :( w CH) = w f( Social cot effect on production: ( w )Q - Q w, b, Inc t, t, r t, Im t, Q d 1 )d = Q d ) ε w ] 1+ε [( w ) ε w ] Social cot effect on conumption ( w )Q d - Q d ) ε w ] Foreign exchange effect on production= w (Q Q ), and on conumption= w (Q d Q d ) Change in quantity produced=q Q, and in quantity conumed=q d Q d Net trade after market liberalization=q d Q The data ued in thi tudy were gathered from Statitic Center of Iran, Agricultural Minitry of Iran and Central Bank of Iran. Thee include: conumption and conumer price, income and population of rural area; production, dometic upply, import and producer price; GN (Gro National roduction). The world price of wheat are calculated baed on the dollar rate in black market. The time-erie of exchange rate of dollar againt Rial (the Iranian Local Currency in the black market) were obtained from the central bank of Iran (CBI). Reult and Dicuion: The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) command in E-view 6.0 wa applied to the data to tet the tationary of the time erie in thi tudy. All variable are not tationary in ame level (Table. 1). A Engle- Granger (Engele and Granger, 1987) and Sargan and Bhargava (Sargan and Bhargava,1983) indicate, we can be ue variable that they are not in the ame level of tationary, if the reidual are tationary and the variable have long run relationhip (Nofereti, 1995). So, we analyi Engel-granger and cointegration regreion Durbin-Waton tet on the reidual of the model that regre, reult gave in Table 2. A reult how reidual are tationary o, we can ue them jut a they are. Table 1. Unit root tet tatitic for wheat market model variable, Iran, Variable ADF tet Variable ADF tet Q t d ** Q t m * ** ch ch I t ** St t ** t Q t The null hypothei ha a unit root at 1% (**) and 5% (*).

6 74 Table 2. Engle-Granger and CRDW tet Function Engle-Granger CRDW Supply ** 2.17** Demand ** 1.90** The null hypothei ha a unit root at 1% (**) and 5% (*). All coefficient preented, have the expected ign. Autocorrelation wa detected in two of the equation etimated. A Gujarati (Gujarati, 1995) indicate equation with lagged-dependent variable, autocorrelation wa teted uing the Durbin-h tatitic. So, reult of tet how no problem were detected (Table. 3, 4). In the upply equation, the coefficient for upply elaticity i ignificant when lagged price of wheat are ued. The coefficient of lagged production and producer price of chicken are poitive and ignificant. The coefficient of lagged import i poitive a expected and ignificant. Alo coefficient of lagged wheat tock i negative, however not expreive. The demand equation how that the coefficient for wheat price (demand elaticity) i ignificant and negative. Alo, the coefficient of lagged price of wheat and people growth are ignificant and poitive. The coefficient of chicken price and income are poitive but not ignificant. A mentioned before, people in rural area have conumption of their own production, o, the coefficient of thi variable i poitive but not ignificant. The coefficient of import i poitive but not expreive. In order to get elaticity of demand and upply for wheat in Iran, during the period of analyi, different pecification for an aggregate dometic upply and a derived demand were etimated. Knowing that the relationhip between quantitie of demand, upply and the repective price are bidirectional and imultaneou, but Hauman tet (Hauman, 1976) howed that the ytem i not imultaneou (Seddighi et al, 2000). So, each equation etimate eparately in non-linear form. The equation were etimated in logarithm form. Reult obtained are preented in Table 3, 4. Table 3. Etimated coefficient of wheat demand function, rural area of Iran, Regreor Coefficient Standard error t-ratio cw crp E I t E E t d Q t Q t w Im t E E Contant Durbin-Waton 1.90 Durbin H Statitic 0.51 Table 4. Etimated coefficient of wheat upply function, rural area of Iran, Regreor Coefficient Standard error t-ratio w g g c Q t 1 Q t 1 m Contant Durbin-Waton 2.17 Durbin H Statitic -0.49

7 75 The price elaticity of demand and upply to be ued in calculating the welfare effect are for demand and for upply, coefficient imply that wheat i an inelatic product on demand and upply ide of the dometic market; however, producer are expected to repond to any change in the wheat price more than conumer do. The mall elaticity of upply obtained, indicated that, any policy on production and conequently on welfare ha mall effect. The greater the elaticity of demand ha high effect of policie on conumption and o on conumer welfare. Baed on thee etimated coefficient, variou apect of wheat market liberalization in rural area of Iran are now dicued. The annual etimated quantitie of upply and demand (Q and Q d ) at current market price and thoe etimated after abolition of government intervention (Q andq d ) are hown in Fig.2,3. Figure 2.The welfare effect of wheat liberalization in rural area in Iran, H S w a b c A d B e f g h i j C k F D D l Q Q m Q d Q d Q Figure 3.The welfare effect of wheat liberalization in rural area in Iran, H S a b c A d B e f w g h i j C k F D D l Q Q m Q d Q d Q Applying the algebra in previou ection, the etimated change in demand quantitie decreaed in period , but upply quantitie in period increaed and decreaed in time (becaue of decline of dometic price to world price)from wheat market liberalization in rural area of Iran. So, price were ued to etimate the welfare effect on three period for producer: before accepted liberalization law ( ), period that producer price i lower than world price ( ) and period that producer price of wheat are higher than world price ( ), on conumer ide, welfare effect etimated in period ( ), that conumer price are lower than world price. Table5, 6 and 7Show the effect of Iranian wheat policy on conumer in rural area and producer welfare, ocial cot, ubidy expenditure and foreign exchange aving. The producer welfare effect of the production policy are hown in Table 5. roducer were ubidized until The lo in producer welfare from 2001until 2007 wa due to a reduction in production, becaue of reduction of price to world price. rice to producer which were lower than import price until 2000 become higher than import price. Becaue of inelatic upply, ocial cot of the production policy wa much maller than thoe of

8 76 conumption policy. However, the foreign exchange wa large and negative for period, declining producer price during thi period decreaed production and increaed import, and had a negative effect on foreign exchange. Table 6 how the Iranian wheat policy on producer welfare, ubidy expenditure, ocial cot and foreign exchange. Conumer were ubidized from The gain in conumer welfare from correpond to 25% of the total cot (aggregate of change in welfare and ocial cot). The foreign exchange wa negative during the period Table 5. Effect of the Iranian wheat production policy (Thouand ton and Million Dollar) Exchange rate Subidy Change in expenditure Welfare Social cot ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) arenthei indicate tandard deviation. The period 1989 until 2007 mentioned development program. Foreign exchange effect ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Change in production (361.5) (836.0) (851.6) (1377.2) (435.2) Table 6. Effect of the Iranian wheat conumption policy (Thouand ton and Million Dollar) Exchange Subidy Change in rate expenditure Welfare Social cot ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) arenthei indicate tandard deviation The period 1989 until 2007 mentioned development program Foreign exchange effect ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Table 7. Annual effect of wheat market liberalization, rural area of Iran Change in conumption (1031.9) (1297.5) (1134.9) (1010.8) (317.6) Mean SD Maximum Minimum Thouand Ton Increae in quantity upplied ( ) Decreae in quantity upplied ( ) Decreae in quantity demand Change on trade after liberalization ( ) Change on trade after liberalization ( ) Million Dollar

9 77 Increae in producer welfare( ) Decreae in producer welfare ( ) Decreae in conumer welfare Foreign exchange effect on production( ) Foreign exchange effect on production ( ) Foreign exchange effect on conumption Subidy expenditure on production ( ) Subidy expenditure on production ( ) Subidy expenditure on conumption arenthei indicate tandard deviation On average over period of the tudy, wheat market liberalization caue decreae dometic wheat conumption by thouand ton per annum, foreign exchange caued falling effect on conumption about million dollar per annum, while the foreign exchange caued falling effect on production ide about million dollar per annum,in period that producer price wa lower than world price, however, in period that dometic price wa higher than world price, the foreign exchange effect increae by million dollar per annum. Totally, the foreign exchange effect on conumption decreae million dollar per annum (without conidering urban conumption). Demand quantity decreaed thouand ton per annum, becaue of dometic price increaed in period Thu, change on trade after liberalization in period , becaue of decreaing in rural conumption and increaing in production, decreae an average of thouand ton per annum, (without conidering urban conumption). Beide indicating the effect of liberalization on agricultural export and import, the four propoed WTO tariff reduction cenario alo ae the impact on producer and conumer welfare a well a on government tariff revenue. In mot developing countrie, the agricultural ector i one of the larget employer in the economy while many houehold alo pend a diproportionate hare their income on food. Iranian conumer welfare in lot million. On average from market liberalized and producer welfare gained million Rial in and lot million Rial in if trade regime had been accrued. Alo when trade liberalization regime had been accepted, government expenditure on conumption decreaed by million Rial, becaue difference between conumer price and world price had been decreaed, while expenditure on production ide during increae by million Rial and decreae million Rial in per annum. Therefore, if wheat market liberalized, rural conumer and producer welfare increaed and decreaed in foreign exchange in both ide, alo in thi ituation, government budget decreaed. Although, thi tudy reult proved that wheat market liberalization decreaed welfare in both ide, and we hould notice all point of liberalization include unupported low-income rural conumer by government. Concluion: In thi tudy, the recent change in the Iranian wheat policie were analyzed through meaure of government intervention on nominal rate of production and on the welfare of producer and conumer. Elaticity of demand and upply of wheat in rural area in Iran were etimated and ued a a meaure to examine the change on producer and conumer welfare. The price elaticity of upply and demand which calculated, indicate that the Iranian producer are more enitive to price change than conumer. However, conumption i more repond to change in production. Increae in production caue an increae in demand for wheat product. Annual data for the period were ued to calculate a imple upply/demand relationhip. Given the big change in wheat policie in that period, which affected directly production and conumption, it i neceary to develop model which could calculate uch hock, and improve the etimate of the elaticity. The wheat market liberalization in Iran reult in rie of average dometic market price and generally decreae rural area conumer welfare; alo, demiing in producer price caue an decreae in producer welfare. Foreign exchange cot on the production ide would increae due to decreaed of wheat import. It how that produce of

10 78 wheat i more economical than wheat import. On conumer ide, foreign exchange cot have decreaed from 1981 until 2007, becaue of increaing in conumer price and decline in demand of wheat. If the market had been liberalized the government budget would have been decreaed on conumer and producer ide. In order to improve the wheat market ituation in Iran, the following recommendation may be functional: Conidering the low level of government activitie, the role of the government in the wheat market hould be reduced. In the meanwhile, the government hould buy and import amount of wheat a tock in order to upply them in time to decreae the market hortage. Acknowledgment: Thi article i taken from the reearch project Role of Factor Affecting Economic Growth in the Agricultural Sector of Iran in the Fifth Development lan Which i financially upported by Ilamic Azad Univerity of Kermanhah. Hereby, the author how that their appreciation of that univerity. Refrence: [1] Agricultural Minitry of Iran (2009) Annual roduction, roducer price and Import (Variou Iue; ). [2] Bkhahoodeh, M., Thompon, K.J. (2006). Social Welfare Effect of Removing Multiple Exchange Rate: Evidence from Rice Trade in Iran. Agricultural Economic Journal. 34, [3] Central Bank of Iran (2009). Annual Economic Indicator at Iue; ) [4] Chang, M.(2007). Trade Impact on Food Security: Analyi on Farm Houehold in Rural Farm. h.d. Thei in Agricultural and Reource Economic, Univerity of California. Davi. [5] Currie, K.M., J.A., Martin, J.A. & Schmitz, A. (1971). The Concept of Economic Surplu and it Ue in Economic Analyi.Economic Journal. 81, [6] Engele, R.F., Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Repreentation, Etimation and Teting, Ecometrica Journal. 55, [7] Hanneon, R. (2000). Renewable Reource and the Gain from Trade.Canadian Journal of Economic. 33, [8] Hauman, J.A. (1976). Specification Tet in Econometric.Econometrica Journal. 46, [9] Gujarati, D.N. (1995). Baic Econometric.1 and 2.Univerity of New York. [10] Krueger, A. (1988). Agricultural Incentive in Developing Countrie: Meauring the Effect of Sectoral and Economy-Wide olicie. World Economic Review, 2, [11] LagareTavora, F. (2008). Development in the World Soybean Market: A artial Equilibrium Trade Model. reented at Senado Federal. [12] Monterio da ilva, O., Grenne, T.(1999). Wheat olicy and Economy-Wide Reform in Brazil.Agricultural Economic Journal. 20, [13] Nielen, M. (2009). Modeling Fih Trade Liberalization: Doe Fih Trade Liberalization in Welfare Gain or Loe? Marine olicy Journal. 33, 1-7. [14] Nofereti, M. (1995). Unit Root and Co-integration in Econometric.Raa cultural ervice. [15] Sargan, J.D., Bhargava, A. (1983). Teting Reidual from Leat Square Regreion for Being Generated by the Gauian Random Walk.Econometrica Journal. 51, [16] Seddighi H.R., Lawle, K.A., &Kato, A.V. (2000). Econometric: A ractical Approach. Rutledge, London and New York. [17] Stoforo, C.E. (2003). roduction, Conumption and Welfare Implication of Trade Liberalization: The Cae of Greek Agriculture. Agriculture Economic Review. 4, [18] Statitic Center of Iran (2009), Annual conumption and Conumer rice of Rural Area (Variou Iue). [19] Takok, I. (1990). Agricultural rice olicy: A ractitioner Guide to artial Equilibrium Analyi. Cornell Univerity re, USA. [20] eter, R. (2005). Agriculture Trade olicy Simulation Model (ATSM).United Nation Conference for Trade and Development. Geneva, Switzerland. ****