National Agricultural Statistics Service Overview

Transcription

1 National Agricultural Statistics Service Overview Hubert Hamer, Administrator USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service Lincoln, Nebraska September 24, 2016

2 Mission of NASS The National Agricultural Statistics Service provides timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture. 10/13/2016 2

3 FARM DEFINITION Any place from which $1,000 of agricultural products were produced and sold, or normally, would have been sold. This definition is unchanged since 1974.

4 Who We Are An official U.S. federal statistical agency Employs nearly 1,000 staff across the country Statisticians, IT Professionals, Public Affairs Specialists, and Geographers, comprise most of the professional staff Oversees 3,000 enumerators collecting data 10/13/2016 4

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6 What Does NASS Do? Administer USDA s Statistical estimating Program and the 5-year Census of Agriculture Coordinate Federal/State agricultural statistics needs Conduct statistical research for other Federal/State or private organizations and other countries Statistical Research

7 What Does NASS Do? Supply Statistics We supply the statistics necessary to manage USDA programs Our statistics help to improve efficiency of these programs Facilitate in the development of new programs

8 What Doesn t NASS Do? Set policy Regulate activities Permit influence Disclose individual reports Favor any group above others

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10 Agricultural Estimates Program Provides Official Statistics for Production, Inventory, Value, Demographics 120 Crop estimates produced annually 45 Livestock commodities produced annually Over 400 Reports published annually 10/13/

11 NASS Crop County Estimate Program

12 Crops Included in County Program Barley Oats Wheat Corn (Silage & Grain) Soybeans Sorghum Peanuts Cotton Hay Tobacco Sugarbeets Sugarcane Sunflowers Flaxseed Canola Rice Potatoes Sweet Potatoes Dry Peas & Lentils Dry Beans Processed Tomatoes

13 Data Sources Farmer Reported Survey Data FSA Certified Acres RMA Planted Acres FSA & RMA Failed Acres Remote Sensing Indications Other Administrative

14 Farmer Reported Surveys Small Grains September APS ~66,000 Sample Size First 2 Weeks of Sept ~65-70% Response Small Grain CAPS ~80,000 Sample Size Aug 1 Oct 10 ~65-70% Response Row Crops December APS ~83,000 Sample Size First 2 Weeks of Dec ~60-65% Response Row Crop CAPS ~170,000 Sample Size Oct 15 Jan 15 ~60-65% Response

15 Sequence of Estimates National State Ag Statistics District County

16 Reported Data & Coverage

17 Reported Data & Coverage

18 Reported Data & Coverage

19 Sequence of Estimates Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield/Production

20 Publication Standards Minimum of 30 positive yield reports OR Reported harvested acreage from reports with positive production must account for at least 25% of the harvested acreage estimate

21 Publication Standards Minimum of 30 positive yield reports OR Reported harvested acreage from reports with positive production must account for at least 25% of the harvested acreage estimate

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26 85 Acreage and Production Survey (APS) Response Rates September December

27 Farmer Reported Surveys Data are collected via Mail (~$4.00) Telephone (~$12.00) Internet (~$2.00) Personal Interview (~>$50.00) Voluntary Reporting

28 Challenges Response/Disclosure Limited by available information Dependent upon voluntary survey response Weather There is never an average year Each season is unique Crop Rotation/Shifting Normal practices Price reactions

29 Targeted Data Collection Near the end of data collection timeframe we focus efforts on counties nearing publication standards. Standard Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

30 How Can We Improve? Accuracy Number of Counties Published Increase Response!

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32 External Challenge Process Data user disagrees with published estimate User provides written appeal RFO and/or HQ reviews county in question Changes made and published if needed Challenger notified of review result

33 CENSUS HISTORY The first Census of Agriculture was conducted in 1840 in 26 states and the District of Columbia.

34 176 YEARS LATER NASS has conducted the Census of Agriculture since 1997 with the transfer of authority from the Census Bureau. Census of Agriculture encompasses 50 states and Puerto Rico (and Outlying Areas) Data are available for: National, State and County levels Congressional Districts Watersheds Organic, Irrigation, Horticulture, Specialty Crops and Aquaculture

35 Census of Agriculture Provides a detailed picture of U.S. farms and ranches and the people who operate them. Only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every state and county in the United States. Census Special Studies include: Horticulture, Organics, Irrigation, Land Tenure, Aquaculture, Local Foods 10/13/

36 5-Year Census of Agriculture Cycle Year 5 - Release Year 4 - Production Year 1 - Direction Year 3 - Reference Year 2 - Planning

37 Year 1 (2015) Year 1 - Direction Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 (2016) (2017) (2018) Year 5 (2019) Monitor products from previous Census of Agriculture (CoA) Continue follow-ons from previous Census List building - National Agricultural Classification Survey (240,000 forms mailed) Begin working on processing and analysis systems Determine Content Year 4 - Production Year 3 Reference Year 5 - Release Year 2 - Planning Year 1 - Direction

38 Year 2 - Planning Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) Census of Agriculture Content Test Test new content and systems Focus on improving online respondent experience List building - National Agricultural Classification Survey (340,000 forms mailed) Begin working on publication specifications Year 4 - Production Year 5 - Release Year 1 - Direction Year 3 Reference Year 2 - Planning

39 Year 3 - Reference Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) List building - National Agricultural Classification Survey (1 million forms mailed) Supplemental samples from June Agricultural Survey Used to improve census coverage & determine misclassification Print all correspondence materials Year 4 - Production Year 3 Reference Year 5 - Release Year 2 - Planning Year 1 - Direction

40 Year 4 - Production Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 (2015) (2016) (2017) (2018) (2019) Data Collection and Processing Editing and Imputation Data Analysis Summarization, Weighting, and Disclosure Products and Release Planning Prepare for CoA Follow-ons Year 4 - Production Year 3 Reference Year 5 - Release Year 2 - Planning Year 1 - Direction

41 Year 1 (2015) Year 2 Year 5 - Release Year 3 Year 4 (2016) (2017) (2018) Year 5 (2019) Release CoA results Conduct first of the CoA Follow-ons Evaluate the 2017 CoA and solicit input for the 2022 CoA from the public Year 4 - Production Year 5 - Release Year 1 - Direction Year 3 Reference Year 2 - Planning

42 Partnership With NASDA First Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a State signed with Wisconsin Department of Agriculture in 1917 Following the initial MOU, numerous cooperative relationships and agreements between NASS and State Departments of Agriculture, Land Grant Universities, and other entities were forged. Today NASS has a MOU on file with each of the State Department of Agriculture.* Share a common mission to benefit agriculture

43 Partnership With NASDA Benefits include: Eliminate Confusion - One Number Reduces Respondent Burden Avoid Duplication of Resources (Staff, Equipment, Sample Frames) Combined Resources Produce More Than Each Individually Examples of Efficiencies Add Questions of State Interest to Federal Survey Increase Sample Size for Sub-State Data Use Federal Sample Design for Special Surveys Help!

44 Agency Appropriated Budget Line Item FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 Ag Estimates Request Census Request Total Request Ag Estimates Actual Census Actual Total Actual H126,572 S127, H41,871 S42, H168,433 S169,639

45 Thank You Questions? All Reports Available at: Hubert Hamer