Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees

Transcription

1 July 2014 Agenda July 24, 2014 Co-Chair: IGAD& FAO 09:30-10:30 Situation Analysis & Outlook: Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP 10:30-11:30 Discussion and preparation of a common statement on food and Nutrition security scenarios for July December 2014 All

2 July 2014 Climate Update By Zachary K.K. Atheru IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

3 July 2014 Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

4 July 2014 ENSO prediction Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

5 Indian Ocean Dipole July 2014

6 July 2014

7 Current Conditions: Regional Highlights July July Many areas in the region are still in stressed condition and specific areas are under crisis or emergency. Food security situation started improving in Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda & Burundi following season one harvest.

8 July July July 2013 Conditions Vs Current Conditions July 2013 July 2014 IMPROVED: Ethiopia DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Uganda (Karamoja), Kenya, Somalia, Sudan. SAME: Rwanda, Burundi, Eastern DRC, CAR

9 July July Current Conditions Uganda Uganda WFP, FAO & IPC IPC phase 1 for bimodal areas due to first season harvests; Phase 2 & 3 in Karamoja. 77% of Karamoja population still food insecure. Food supply to Karamoja increasing from harvests elsewhere, access to greens/vegetables from own gardens and wild greens & humanitarian assistance. The 2014 harvest has contributed to keeping food prices relatively stable with marginal increase in nominal retail prices of maize by 2% and sorghum by 11% and beans (reduced by 12%) compared to May 2014 prices. Sorghum prices are expected to remain stable in July and increase slightly in August. Price of maize & sorghum remained higher than in 2013 due to demand in Kenya, DR Congo, South Sudan. Inflation declined from 5.4% in May to 4.9% in June; food inflation declined from 8.2% to 7.1% and CPI declined from to Above average rains received in June except in Karamoja (especially the north-eastern) and parts of central and southwest Uganda. Similar trend for Feb-June cumulative rains with possible impact on crop production & livestock production. Despite the increased supply of food commodities, low food access among some households in Karamoja persists. Foot and Mouth (FMD) disease outbreak in Karamojaaffected the livestock markets. Quarantine has been instituted Karamoja food security is of concern due to poor rainfall performance, access to food and FMD disease ourbreak

10 July July Current Conditions Ethiopia Ethiopia FEWS NET & WFP Food security IPC phase 1 in western & NW region; stressed in others with pockets under crisis in eastern, marginal, agricultural areas in Tigray, Amhara, and lowlands in East and West Hararghe Zone in Oromia Region; In June, wholesale price of maize was stable, but above long term average. The import parity price of maize in Addis Ababa was higher than the local prices (by 23%) but lower than local prices for wheat (14%). Fuel prices slightly increased in June by 0.8% for petrol and 2.4% for diesel. Inflation rate declined from 8.7% in May to 8.5% in June but food inflation increased 3.97% to 6.2%; March June rains were favourable in western & NW regions. In these areas together with Belg growing areas in Tigray, Amhara and SNNPR, a good harvest is expected; In Somali, eastern and south eastern Oromia, northern Afar and the southern lowlands of SNNPR poor rains have had adverse impacts on crop development; Poor water & pasture has affected livestock body condition, leading to deaths in Arsi Zone of Oromia. Poor livestock body condition is reducing demand and prices amidst increasing food prices. This affects ToT especially for pastoralists in Gode; A multi-agency assessment of the impacts of poor rains has been conducted. Results are expected in July/early August; The June-September rainfall season is forecasted to start and end normally, and normal to above-normal in western, central, east and the adjoining Rift Valley escarpments including southern highlands. However, it is forecasted to be below normal & may be characterized by prolonged dry spells and with the possibility of ending earlier than usual in the northeastern region. Currently, the food security situation is reported be stable in general in all regions except: northern Woredas of Afar lowlands of East and West Hararge, Borena, Some Woredas in Arsi Zone in Oromia, and in Tigray region. During July to September, humanitarian assistance in Somali region and lowland of Oromia and South Omo must be strengthen. Generally food security condition is good in western & NW and improving due to harvest but is of concern in pastoral areas

11 July July Current Conditions Somalia SOMALIA WFP & DevCoCast Most areas are under stressed (IPC phase 2) conditions except along coastline and part of Shabelle under crisis (IPC Phase 3); 857,000 people are under crisis and emergency food security conditions, 635,000 of them being IDPs. Gu rainy season started late & had poor spatial-temporal distribution; it was characterized by hot & dry weather between March June causing water stress to crops and reduced water availability for livestock and domestic use. Vegetation condition (NDVI) remained stressed in southern regions especially Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan though with pockets of greenness in NE parts due to May rains; July-Sept Hagaa season likely to have water stress impacting on livestock sector; Critical GAM rates (>15%) levels may persist in South central region. Market prices continued to rise due to limited market supplies of locally produced staples (e.g. white maize and red sorghum) and imported staples (white sorghum, wheat flour, rice, and sugar). In urban areas in south & central regions where trade was disrupted by conflict, cereal prices increased by 40% to 60% since March. The CPI in Somali shilling areas exhibited mixed monthly trends in May 2014: it declined in Central zone markets (by 13%), remained stable in the North and increased in the South (by 6%); Limited access to humanitarian assistance due to lack of funding for planned interventions is impacting on prevalence of acute malnutrition. Population movement have started to be noticed toward Garowe and Modagishu, but no cross border movement 2014 post Gu seasonal assessment is on-going and will provide updated information about food security. A combination of delayed Gu rains, increasing signs of a drought, rising food prices, IDPs and increasing conflict is likely to worsen the food security situation in the coming months from Crisis (Phase 3) emergency (Phase 4) for the affected areas, especially central region. Generally food security is of concern following poor performance of the Gu season, effects of conflicts and rising food prices. Water stress expected during Hagaa season

12 Current Conditions Kenya July July KENYA WFP, FAO In May 2014, 62% were food insecure, 13% being severely food insecure and facing extreme food shortage or adopting irreversible coping strategies; 80% of HHs face food shortage and are adopting coping strategies, which is above 2012 & 2013 levels; Food consumption has deteriorated & is above 2012 & 2013 levels. Worst situation is in Northern pastoral livelihood zone; Regionally, 75% of households in NW, Northern and Southern pastoral livelihood zones are food insecure; NW pastoral zone has the highest number of severly food insecure. Turkana County (40%) of population); Price of maize continued to increase in Eldoret, Mombasa and Kisumu but remained stable in Nairobi & Nakuru. Prices are slightly higher than in CPI increased from in May 2014 to in June 2014; overall inflation rate rose from 7.30% in May 2014 to 7.39% March-May rains performed poorly in most areas affecting pasture regeneration, livestock condition & milk availability. Below average harvests are expected in surplus producing areas. The government plans to import 200,000MT of maize to meet the deficit. In 2014, GAM rates >15% were recorded in Turkana East, Central, West and South; East Pokot, Wajir West; Samburu, Samburu East, West and Central subcounties. In Turkana and Mandera counities the GAM rates mirror those of the 2011 emergency situation. In the SE marginal areas and pastoral areas, food consumption will deteriorate through the months of September and October before the start of the rains. Household purchasing capacity is currently depressed due to very few income generating opportunities. Hence, number of people in need of food assistance is likely to rise from the current 1.29 million Food security is stressed and poor harvests expected in surplus producing areas. Government to import maize to cater for deficit, stabilise consumption and market prices. Concern over pastoral areas due to deteriorating FS & nutrition status.

13 Current Conditions South Sudan July July South Sudan WFP, OCHA Crisis & emergency food security situation continues in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states, some counties in Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes states; Nutrition status of children is also of concern especially among IDPs/ in conflict affected states Over 1.4 million people reached through PRRO and EMOP operations. Sudan & South Sudan signed a MoU for transportation of humanitarian supplies through Sudan to conflict affected states; In June nominal retail prices for white sorghum were % higher than average and % higher than in June 2013; Market prices may start improving after the harvests expected in late August or September; Monthly CPI increased by 3.3% between May and June and by 0.6% compared to June 2013; Above average rains from March-June facilitated water and pasture availability. Livestock are in good body condition; Crops are at vegetative stage in all regions except in Greater Equatoria where first season maize and groundnuts are at flowering stages; East of Eastern Equatoria was affected by below normal rains. Food security in some areas of the conflict affected states is expected to deteriorate further from August due to limited access to crop production, markets and conflict. Crisis and emergency food security remains in conflicts affected areas; market prices are above average but good seasonal rainfall supporting crop production and livestock sector.

14 Current Conditions Rwanda July July Rwanda Fews Net, WFP Food security remain minimal (IPC phase 1) in most areas & stressed (phase 2) in Lake Kivu Coffee livelihood zone and Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming zone; Foods security and consumption is improving following season B harvest in July. However, the harvests are below average due to poor season performance; Poor households in Eastern Semi-arid Agropastoral, Bugesera Cassava and Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming livelihood zones may deplete their stocks earlier than usual due to below average production; Food prices are declining compared to May 2014 due to achieved harvests but may be short-lived owing to production deficits; Inflation declined from 1.9% in May to 1.4% in June; food inflation declined from 3% to 1.9%; Poor rainfall performance in April-May may have delayed the start of season C when vegetables and legumes are grown. Food security remains stressed but improving following season B harvests (though below average). Food prices declining but trend may be short-lived due to declined production. Poor April-May rains could delay season C cropping.

15 Current Conditions Burundi July July Burundi Fews Net, WFP, IPC Food security is still stressed (IPC phase 2) except in eastern lowlands and the humid plateau livelihood zones that is under crisis (IPC phase 3). The food security situation is improving due to food availability from season B harvests and from markets; The Feb-June rainfall has been below average leading to crop losses in North and North East regions (Kirundo, Muyinga, Ruyigi and Cankuzo) - estimated 50% loss of cereals and legumes; There is an on-going CFSAM that will inform the status of food production in the country; Lean season which normally starts in October may start earlier than normal especially in the North and North East areas where crops were most affected by drought; Inflation rate declined from 4.8% in May to 3.4% in June but the food inflation worsened from 1.2% to 1.7%. Food security remains stressed or in crisis but slightly improving following season B harvests (though below average). Lean season in drought affected areas may start earlier than normal. Food production status to be informed by on-going CFSAM.

16 Current Conditions Djibouti July July Djibouti Fews Net, WFP Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity persist among poor pastoralists in the Obock, Northwestern, South-eastern Pastoral livelihood zones in Dikhill, and the South-eastern Pastoral Borderside Zone in the Arta Region. Rest of the country is stressed; Food insecurity stems from poor March to May Diraac/Sugum rains, reductions in humanitarian assistance, lowered labour opportunities, limited access to northern Obock that has reduced household access to food and income; There is an on-going CFSVA that will inform about the food security situation once completed. Food insecurity may persist in coming months owing to poor March-May rains & limited grazing resources for livestock unless July-September Karan/Karma rains are adequate; Food security remains critical following the poor performance of the March-May rains and may persist unless July-September rains are adequate. Livestock production is affected by poor status of grazing resources. On-going CFSVA will inform the food security status once completed.

17 Current Conditions Sudan July July Sudan IPC, WFP Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or emergency (IPC phase 4) in Kassala, Darfur, and isolated parts of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. 14% of the population (4,380,935) are under crisis and emergency food insecurity, and an additional 31% (10,464,444) under stressed condition (May 2014 IPC analysis). Between Jan and June 5.7M people were targeted for support but only 3.6M have been reached. Food insecurity resulted from poor production during the previous season, poor rainfall performance, high food prices that limit access, effects of insecurity in Darfur and South Kordofan, water scarcity in western and eastern states, and the influx of refugees from South Sudan. Staple food prices continued with the upward season trend in most markets, which is expected during the lean season, but are higher than average. Between April and May, sorghum prices increased by between 5% and 20% in most markets and were 56% above 2013 prices. Cattle prices remained stable while that of goats declined due to declining demand and insecurity. CPI increased from in June to in July; inflation rate from 41.2% to 45.3% In 3 rd Dekad of June, moderate rains were received in most areas except in parts of Darfur, Kordofan, Central and Eastern regions with above average rains. Food security remains critical in Darfur, and Red sea area following the poor performance of the previous season, poor rainfall performance and high food prices.

18 Current Conditions CAR July July CAR IPC, others Country facing acute and complex emergency esp. in conflict affected areas; Food insecurity in the NW region (IPC Phase 4) is exacerbated by insecurity and tensions; 1.7M people in phases (3 and 4) compared to 900,000 in Nov The number of people facing acute food insecure has increased. Poor food consumption for >50% in the most affected areas (June). January to May admission to TSF programme: 7,301 children 6-59 months & 4,092 PLW. Of these 1,945 children 6-59 months and 1,624 PLW were admitted in May Only 34 out of 180 supplementary feeding Centres are functional, largely due to security and capacity constraints. Access to food is curtailed by widespread displacement, depletion of household food stocks, destruction of livelihoods and loss of productive assets, inability to raise income, rising food prices, market disruption or limited access to markets.

19 Current Conditions DR Congo July July DRC IPC June 2014 IPC analysis focused on the Eastern part of the country (most affected by conflicts) 22 of 67 territories analysed are in IPC phase 3 and 4 (18 in phase 3; 4 in phase 4). Food insecure people (IPC phase 3 & 4) increased from 3.8M to 4.1M in provinces included in analysis. Province Orientale and Katanga with more than 500,000 IDPs each - GAM rates above 15% and poor food consumption score for more than 50% of the population. Conflict and displacement along the border with CAR, and armed groups in the Kivu region continue to be of concern and cause of food insecurity

20 Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) April July 2014 Country Pop in IPC phase 3 &4 Source Burundi 682,000 WFP Burundi CAR 1,700,000 FSNWG June 2014 Djibouti 120,000 DRC 4,100,000 (East DRC only) IPC June 2014 Ethiopia 2,200,000 (require food aid) GoE, WFP Kenya 1,300,000 (require support) KFSSG Somalia 1,100,000 South Sudan 3,890,717 IPC April 2014 projection Uganda 252,810 IPC April 2014 projection Sudan 4,380,935 IPC May 2014 TOTAL 19,726,462

21 Assessments to inform food security July 2014 Ethiopia: Multi-agency assessment on the impacts of poor rains completed & results are expected end July/early August Somalia: 2014 post Gu seasonal assessment(on-going) Burundi: CFSAM(On-going) to inform the status of food production Djibouti: CFSVA data collection completed Uganda: Karamoja FSNA(June), results expected soon. ThenextIPCanalysisisplannedtotakeplaceinAugust2014. South Sudan: FSMS and nutrition assessment(on-going) ThenextIPCanalysisisplannedtotakeplaceinAug/earlySept2014. Kenya: Long Rains assessment (on-going). The KFSSG is currently undertaking food security assessment in 23 counties of the ASAL areas and the result will bereadyon15thaugust2014.

22 July 2014 Nutrition Update

23 Nutrition SOMALIA July 2014 Somalia (FSNAU MAY-JUNE 2014) Nutrition situation in IDPs -Post Gu 2014 Prevalence of Malnutrition is critical in 7/13 IDPs surveyed in May-June 2014; Humanitarian Emergency situation is observed among Mogadishu and Kismayo IDPs ( GAM>15% accompanied by CDR > 1/10,000/day) Mogadishu Urban shows deterioration--serious 10.1 %fromalertlevelsof8.1%recordedingu2013 Current Action WFP: scaling up the TSFP programs in Banadir region. UNICEF : Provide supplies from July to August to some partners. WHO: Started Measles vaccination. Distribution of WHO CSR AWD case definition and alert threshold guideline with the nutrition partners in order understand and follow so that they will be to reduce the diarrhoea in their area of operations ACF and SCI -increase the OTP operational days i.e. throughout the week(saturday to Thursday). Recommendations by Partners General food distribution for the IDPs and family ration for the families of the malnourished Provision of Blanket Supplementary Feeding Programme(BSFP) in the IDP settlements

24 Prevalence of GAM among different IDPs in Somalia(Gu 14) July 2014 Very Critical ( 30%) Prevalence of GAM among different IDPs in Somalia_Gu_ Critical (15-<30%) Serious (10-<15%) Alert (5-<10%) Acceptable (0-<5%) 0

25 Nutrition July 2014 SOMALIA - KEY MESSAGES Persistence of critical levels of GAM in 6/13 IDPs and increase in SAM suggest that prevention is a major challenge to fight child malnutrition in Somalia- Not addressing issues related to livelihood/income is responsible for sustained levels of critical GAM in IDPs Results for Mogadishu IDPs highlight the necessity to rapidly detect the acute worsening of a protracted crisis, combined with the prompt adjustment and scaling-up of programmes (from routine activities to incorporating emergency response) at the earliest signs of such a worsening. WHAT ACUTE MALNUTRITION MEANS FOR A CHILD IN SOMALIA ONE IN SEVEN CHILDREN IN SO MALIA SUFFER FROM ACUTE MALNUTRITION HIGHER RISK OF DEATH CHILDREN SUFFERIN G FROM MODERATE ACUTE M ALNUTRITIO N ARE 3 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO DIE THAN HEALTHY CHILDREN IF THEY HAVE SEVERE ACUTE MALNUTRITION THEY ARE 9 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO DIE WHAT DOES a THIS MEAN FOR THE CHILD Significnt nt w eight loss, weakened immune systems and a reduced h ability to figt inf ections CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCUMB TO INFECTIONS MEANWHILE INFECTIONS WORSEN THE SEVERITY OF THE MALNUTRITION EPISODES OF ACUTE MALNUTRITION INCREASE THE RISK OF STUNTED GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT CHILDREN MAY NOT GROW TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL OR REACH THEIR OPTIMUM MENTAL DEVELOPMENT

26 Nutrition July 2014 KENYA BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... NUTRITION SURVEY RESULTS Nutrition SMART Survey as at 30 June 2014 Nutrition Situation February 2014 These results show on average 1 in 4 children is acutely malnourished

27 Nutrition July 2014 KENYA BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... National Level: Nutrition Response Actions in Place 1. Elevated monitoring of the nutrition situation and quality assurance of nutrition interventions coordination mechanisms 2. Resource mobilisation and technical guidance 3. Backstopping capacity at the county to ensure timely preparedness and response County level: 1. Nutrition contingency and response plans have been activated and emergency response costed 2. Increased active case finding of acutely malnourished cases 3. Remapping and implementation of integrated outreach services to increase geographical coverage, 4. Essential emergency nutrition supplies prepositioned is on-going

28 Nutrition July 2014 KENYA BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... KEY MESSAGES Multi-Sector Response Actions: 1. The different evidence based options in the respective counties geared towards improving food security livelihood need to be scaled up. 2. Current development programs have to scale up to meet the extreme chronic vulnerabilities 3. NDMA to communicate direction on response actions at county and national level(funding, capacity, commodities etc) Funding: 1. Immediate resources should be spent on nutrition interventions for treatment and prevention of acute malnutrition. 2. Funding support given through agencies for response need to be strategic and in line with emergency priorities that have been discussed at national and county level 3. Supplies are sufficient for the next two month, procurement needs to happen now to prevent pipeline break in September

29 Nutrition SOUTH SUDAN July 2014 To date 15 Surveys and assessments have been completed, 10 surveys are ongoing.

30 Nutrition July 2014 SOUTH SUDAN BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... CURRENT ACTION Scale up strategy discussion led by WFP and UNICEF to reach more beneficiaries and areas. A multi sectorial area rapid response model has been adopted by the humanitarian community to respond in the hard to reach areas with Mobile team and strengthening on the ground presence for sustainably emergency response in areas with access constraints. The nutrition Cluster has developed a detailed nutrition cluster response matrix available in the link To improve availability of nutrition Information, collaboration between WFP/UNICEF/FAO to include anthropometry indicators in FSMS. Small scale surveys conducted by ACF in the hard to reach areas improving availability of credible data. KEY MESSAGE As of 22nd July 2014, the nutrition crises response plan is only 31.9% funded (out of the USD 131,000,000) required to meet the nutrition cluster target. More resources are required.

31 July 2014

32 SUDAN July 2014 Sudan: (Nutrition cluster newsletter May 2014) Nutrition situation of arrivals (refugees from South Sudan) is extremely critical, Displacement in Darfur has affected 82,273 children < 5 years. 81,543 children screened of which 4,171 found with SAM while 13,630 found with MAM which makes the proxy GAM to be 21.8%. South Sudanese refugee response: Overall rate of malnutrition is improving over time (~20% GAM in March/April) to currently above 13.6% GAM (16th July) which is still considered as critical in the refugee context with the aggravating factors. The improvement may be attributed to the strong coordination and compressive sector response plan which was developed and implementation going on. Key results of the SUDAN S3M Survey (2013)- Sudan has a huge burden of acute malnutrition and the latest simple spatial sampling (S3M) survey showed that: More than 2 million children in Sudan are stunted and unlikely to ever reach their full growth and development potential, (Statelevel estimates mask huge disparities in most indicators. Of the total184 localities, 128 have a stunting rate classified as high (above 30 per cent). There are pockets of very high stunting rates, found mostly in the eastern states of Red Sea, Kassala and Gedaref. The highest rate of 73 per cent was found in Gedaref state) Around 2 million children will suffer from acute malnutrition in Currently less than 22% of these children have access to treatment.

33 Central Africa Republic July 2014 CAR:(Nutrition cluster newsletter May 2014) Factors affecting nutrition situation: deterioration on food security, limited food distribution, diarrheal diseases, respiratory infections, lack of access to potable water and hygiene, and poor access to health services. National nutrition indicators (before crises) showed that 39.9% of children suffer from chronic malnutrition (but 6 regions in the west had chronic malnutrition rate over 40%); and nationally, 7.8% of the children suffer from acute malnutrition. Some 28,000 children will suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in 2014, and 75,500 children will suffer from moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). An estimated 159,000 children under age 5 need highly nutritious foods. A consistent and adequately funded pipeline is needed to prevent a deterioration of nutritional status during the rainy season. A nutrition survey (SMART) began on 11th July. It was completed on 18th July in Bangui. The report is being compiled. Financial gap: nutrition sector requires USD 22.5 M for life saving activities, only 34% is actually financed.

34 July 2014 South Sudan emergency update

35 July 2014 South Sudan emergency update Host country Displaced pre- 15 Dec 2013 New arrivals (post 15 Dec2013) Total from South Sudan Ethiopia 43, , ,444 Uganda 22, , ,267 Kenya 45,239 40,196 85,435 Sudan - 82,715 82,715 Total 111, , ,861

36 Refugees South Sudan Emergency Situation July 2014 WFP requires USD 107 million for the next 6 months to meet the food and nutrition needs of all refugees in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan. Ongoing violence during the planting season > possibility of famine in the coming months. Outflow reduced but still new arrivals in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan. Congestion in camps is of concern, in Ethiopia and Kenya in particular. Negotiations with authorities on land access are ongoing. The onset of the rainy season was complicating the delivery of humanitarian aid in South Sudan, with many roads now impassable due toboththerainandtoinsecurity. With the rainy season, cholera and other waterborne disease (hepatitis E) are of concern. These outbreaks are increasing nutrition needs.

37 Refugees July 2014 Nutrition and Food security issues South Sudan BSFP disrupted because of lack of Super Cereal. Gaps in anaemiaactivities and back gardening interrupted due to limited funding. Nutrition survey scheduled for October/November (after rainy season) if security situation allows. Uganda Cholera outbreak in Aruadistrict; cholera task force established with provision of treatment, cholera kits and awareness campaigns. Food stocks until end of September if no major increase in influx. Nutrition products available up to end of October. Gaps in anaemia and IYCF activities due to limited funding. JAM completed; report is being finalized.

38 Refugees July 2014 Nutrition and Food security issues Ethiopia Nutrition survey results in Gambellarefugee camps (new arrivals) show 28% GAM (7.8% SAM) and 46.9% anaemiaamong children under five. Cases of hepatitis E observed in Gambella. Oral cholera vaccination and distribution of health kits containing medicines and supplies including anti-malarial medicines.

39 Refugees Nutrition and food security issues July 2014 Kenya JAM completed; donor debrief held on 17h July; report is being finalized. Evaluation of FFV in Dadaabfinalized; ongoing consultations on strategy for Cash Based Interventions for refugees in Kenya. Staffing levels are not adequate to handle the increasing number of children in the inpatient and outpatient feeding programs. Alarming malnutrition rates among new arrivals in Kakuma.

40 Markets food prices trends in the region July 2014 Maize: prices declined in the United Republic of Tanzania and Uganda as newly-harvested crops supplied markets, and remained stable in Ethiopia. (GIEWS, July 2014) Sorghum: prices continued to escalate in the Sudan, reflecting a poor 2013 harvest, and in Somalia due to insecurity and poor crop prospects (GIEWS, July 2014). But mixed retail price trends for main staples in main urban markets of South Sudan. Uganda Maize prices in June stable but well above June 2013 level, due to concerns over crop performance following rainfall deficits and a sustained demand from neighboring countries (GIEWS, July 2014). In Karamoja, steady supply of key staples from neighbouring districts has contributed to keeping prices of maize grain, sorghum, beans and goats relatively stable in June compared to May 2014 sorghum and maize prices increased by 30% and 20% respectively on average and went as high as 54% in Nakapiripirit and 43% in Moroto compared to June 2013 (WFP, July 2014). Tanzania Price of maize continued to decline in June due to increased supplies from ongoing msimuharvest in uni-modal areas and prospects of green harvest from masikacrop in July from bi-modal areas.

41 July 2014 Ethiopia Prices of maize were stable in June in producing areas (Bahirdar) and in deficit zones (Mekeleand Diredawa) (GIEWS, July 2014). Overall, prices were below levels 12 months ago (June 2013) that had a bumper meher harvest (GIEWS, July 2014). South Sudan Price of sorghum in Juba and wheat flourin Wauand Aweilwere stable due mainly to increased supply in June (WFP, July 2014). Nominal prices for white sorghum remained relatively stable on main urban markets, but were up to 285% higher than their 5-year ( ) average, and up to 175% the levels in June 2013 (WFP, July 2014). In conflict-affectedunity, Upper Nile and JongleiStates, supplies remain limited and cereal prices are significantly higher (GIEWS, July 2014). Kenya Prices of maize showed mixed trends in June, increasing in Eldoret, Mombasa and Kisumu; but stable or declining slightly in Nairobi and Nakuru(GIEWS, July 2014). However, prices in June were significantly higher than a year ago, mainly due to below average 2013/14 short rains harvest. Despite this, the markets were the most important source for 48% of HHs compared to 32% same period last year (WFP, May 2014)

42 July 2014 Somalia Prices of coarse grains in June continued increasing on most markets of the south, surging in Mogadishu (GIEWS, July 2014). In urban areas affected by conflicts in south and central regions, cereal prices increased by 40-60% since March, well above normal levels (WFP, June 2014). Prices of maize and sorghum were well above 2013 levels due to the early depletion of stocks from a below average 2013/14 deyr harvest, and poor prospects for the upcoming 2014 gu crop; and trade disruption due to intensified conflict in southern and central regions (GIEWS, July 2014). Sudan Prices of sorghum escalated in June reaching new record highs, due to seasonal patterns but compounded by early exhaustion of stocks from a poor 2013 harvest; and market disruptions due to insecurity in Darfur and South Kordofan states (GIEWS, July 2014). Prices of wheat in Khartoum were 42% higher than in June 2013 due to strong local demand; devaluation of the currency, in a regime of high dependence on international market (GIEWS, July 2014).

43 July 2014 Drivers: Conflict and high malnutrition levels High number of refugees crossing to Cameroon Aug onwards Drivers: Conflict; Low crop production; High food prices; & High malnutrition levels. High number of refugees crossing to Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda Drivers: Conflict; Drought conditions and low crop production; poor pastures; High food prices; Potential impact of El-Nino Drivers: Low rainfall; Poor pasture condition & High malnutrition levels. Low food security interventions Areas of critical concern Areas that will require close monitoring