Click to edit Master title style

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Click to edit Master title style"

Transcription

1 Growing Energy: Brazil and Beyond Click to edit Master title style Jefferies 2013 Global Industrials Conference Click to edit Master subtitle style Paul Kuc Chief Financial Officer August 12, 2013

2 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All statements, other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including statements regarding our efforts to develop and commercialize our products, anticipated yields and product performance, our short-term and long-term business strategies, market and industry expectations and future results of operations and financial position, are forward-looking statements. In many cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terms such as may, will, should, expect, plan, anticipate, could, intend, target, project, contemplate, believe, estimate, potential, continue or other similar words. We based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events or trends that we believe may affect our business and financial performance. These forwardlooking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to materially differ from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. We have described in the Risk Factors section and elsewhere in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the material risks and uncertainties that we believe could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements. Because forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which we cannot predict or quantify, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as guarantees of future results, performance or achievements. The forward looking statements in this presentation represent our views as of the date of this presentation. We undertake no obligation to update publicly, except to the extent required by law, any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this presentation to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations. 2

3 The Prize of the 21 st Century Society must find a scalable, economic and sustainable alternative to petroleum Bioenergy is one of the few viable replacements for oil in all of its uses but it needs a scalable, sustainable feedstock 3 Oil derricks at Titusville, Pennsylvania / U.S. Library of Congress (left) and Ceres research center near College Station, Texas (right).

4 Ceres: A Next-Generation Seed Company Commercial Inflection Point Immediate Focus on Brazil Large Market Opportunity Transportation fuels, Chemical and Power Business Model Upstream, Capital Light, High Gross Margins Fully Integrated Capabilities Proprietary Knowledge Base Germplasm & Breeding Generate and protect IP Markers & Genomics Traits New Products Sales and Marketing Seed Production Agronomy 4

5 Gasoline is the Alternative Fuel in Brazil Brazil Total Ethanol Demand ( E) 1 CAGR 11.3% Well established, mature industry >400 existing mills 3.4 million metric-tons per day crush capacity Liters (billions) Domestic demand for biofuel is expected to nearly double within 10 years Imported U.S. ethanol recently due to tight feedstock supply Ethanol blend increased to 25% Ethanol prices recently moved above sugar prices 5 1 EPE - Plano Decenal de Expansao de Energia 2021

6 Sweet Sorghum Complements Sugarcane Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sweet Sorghum Planting Sweet Sorghum Harvest Sugarcane Harvest Sugar yields economically feasible for only 200 days per year Sweet Sorghum Advantages No new capital Potential to add up to 2 months to harvest season Faster scale-up Fewer inputs; marginal acres More rapid product development % Soluble Solids (Brix) Sugar Levels in Sugarcane* Harvest at Peak Sugars 6 * Illustrative. Source: Ceres analysis, Plant Biotechnology Journal (2010)

7 Sugarcane Renewal Areas Provide Opportunity for Sweet Sorghum Sugarcane Yields by Stand Age * (mt/ha) Typical Sugarcane Plantation Land Use Average Yield 74 mt/ha** Renewal Area ~15% Cane Nursery 58 Sugarcane Renewal area is typically planted with noncore cover crops like soybean or peanuts. 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th Harvest Year 7 * Agrosecurity Gestão de Agro-Ativos Ltda. ** Center-South Brazil. Source: UNICA

8 Illustrative Mill Returns from Season Extension on a Marginal Basis R$1, EBIT (R$) No Cogeneration Per Hectare Breakeven at ~2,000 liters per hectare R$3,000 2,500 2,000 EBIT (R$) Cogeneration Per Hectare Breakeven at ~1,500 liters per hectare 1,686 2,223 2, ,500 1, ,149 (200) (138) 0 75 (400) (337) (500) (462) (600) (1,000) Yield (metric tons per hectare) Yield (metric tons per hectare) Assumes cash cost (labor, fuel, repair and maintenance) of 80% on mechanization and CCT. CCT base assumption is R$20 per metric ton delivered. Yields assume 90kgs per metric ton TFS (~50 liters per metric ton), R$1.20 per liter blended ethanol price FOB mill, R$0.15 per kwh electricity price and 270 kwh per metric ton. Cash industrial cost of R$0.14 per liter based on PECEGE/CNA Source: Ceres Internal Analysis, UDOP, ESALQ, PECEGE/CNA, Fermentec, company reports

9 9 Sweet Sorghum Drops into Industrial Process

10 Results of Mill Evaluations Confirmed Field Potential & Progress 1 Top ethanol yields: >3,600 l/ha Average ethanol yields up 50% over previous season Outyielded competitors 2 More variability than expected; mills continuing evaluations and building confidence in their execution. Next Season Similar-sized evaluations expected Focus on mills that are executing well Target geographies & environments where current products have performed well Ongoing improvements from breeding and product development 10 1) Based on customer & Ceres calculations. Methodologies and assumptions used in these calculations can vary, and are therefore subject to greater variability than a controlled environment. 2) Based on anecdotal reports for multiple locations where side-by-side comparisons were available.

11 11 Commercial-Scale Cellulosic Is Here

12 High-Yielding Energy Crops are Needed to Drive Scale and Economics Leverage Existing Infrastructure Enable Use of Marginal Land 2 Dry Short Tons 68% Fewer Miles 20 Dry Short Tons Drive Bio-Refinery Scale Provide High Yield Density * 12 Assumes 20% land use for feedstock production; 5,000 ton/day facility. Yields are illustrative and cited as per acre/per year.

13 BIOPOWER Baseload & Dispatchable Renewable Electricity United Kingdom: Biomass Displaces Coal at Utility Scale Harvest of Ceres High-Biomass Sorghum 13

14 Combination of Germplasm and Traits Provide Competitive Advantage and IP Germplasm Elite Sources Regionally Adapted Marker Platform Traits Broad Portfolio Field Validated Dual-Component Development Top Performing Proprietary Seed Products Patents, PVP and Breeder Rights 14

15 Depth of Product Pipeline Provides Ample Opportunities for Improvement First Generation Hybrids First Commercial Products New Hybrids

16 Integrated Genomics Platform Speeds Development of Superior Hybrids Identifying Superior Outliers in Breeding Trial Virtual Hybrids Predictive Breeding Improved Selection Commercial Products Marker and field data are combined to predict the results of different crosses 16

17 Field Validated Traits in Hand Higher Sugars High Biomass Drought Tolerance Salt Tolerance 17

18 Improved Grain Yield in Row Crops Presents Licensing Opportunity Partnership provides opportunity to improve performance on large acreage. Millions of Acres Planted Rice with Ceres Trait Wheat Rice Corn Largest world crop. Ceres has advanced traits available to license to the global corn market Rice Ceres has field trials in India via local partner. 383 Soybean Fastest growing world crop. 252 Control Soybean Improved Grain Yield 1.5B First-generation trait & trait stack premiums range from approx. $10 to $50 per acre in the U.S Acreage Source: AgServe Economic Forecast, International Agriculture Outlook, May Public filings and Ceres analysis

19 We are a Pure-Play Ag Biotech and Seed Company Upstream of commodity volatility Seed industry metrics and comparisons Low capital requirements Long lead times IP protection Priced-to-value Sustainable high gross margins 19

20 Agricultural Innovations Can Be Rapidly Adopted Precedent Crop Adoption Curves 100% Independent of time period or geography 80% IOWA 1930s: Hybrids on majority of acres in 6 years Percent Penetration 60% 40% 20% 0% Roundup Ready Soybean (Brazil) Roundup Ready Soybean (U.S.) Transgenic Canola (Canada) Insect Resistant Cotton (India) Hybrid Corn s (Iowa) BRAZIL: Roundup Ready Soybean follows US adoption curve despite lack of approvals HAWAII: Virus-Resistant Papaya 98% of growers registered in 1 st year for biotech seed Years on Market Note: Roundup Ready Soybean (Brazil) represents the period from 2003 to Roundup Ready Soybean (U.S.) represents the period from 1996 to Transgenic Canola represents the period from 2002 to Insect Resistant Cotton represents the period between 2003 and Hybrid Corn represents the period from 1933 to Source: Roundup Ready Soybean: USDA. Transgenic Canola: Private Trade Sources, Insect Resistant Cotton: Katherine Indiastat.com Hybrid Corn: "Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change." In Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988). New York: Basil Blackwell; Papaya: Hawaii Crop Improvement Association, International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA Brief ).

21 The Prize of the 21 st Century Society must find a scalable, economic and sustainable alternative to petroleum Our seed and trait products enable the large-scale production of bioenergy via the production of high-yielding, lowinput feedstocks 21 Oil derricks at Titusville, Pennsylvania / U.S. Library of Congress (left) and Ceres research center near College Station, Texas (right).

22 Click to edit Master title style Thank You Click to edit Master subtitle style Ceres, Inc. Nasdaq: CERE investor.ceres.net