Mega cities in Sub Saharan Africa Health and Sanitation

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1 Mega cities in Sub Saharan Africa Health and Sanitation Gijs Kok, KLV-SKOV Gijs Kok Streak Line view on Lower Manhattan

2 Mega Cities in Sub Saharan Africa Mega Opportunities or Mega Disasters? Gijs Kok Manhattan Hurricane Sandy

3 Mega cities -Mega disasters? Water: Floods Droughts Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater Leaks in supply and collection systems Power outings, pressure drops Land subsidence Poor infiltration Siltation and salinization of water bodies Waterborne, water related diseases Stagnant versus flushed waterbody Gijs Kok Hudson River Flood Barrier in the Verrazona Narrows

4 Mega cities -Mega disasters? Health and Sanitation Onsite versus off-site sanitation Treatment and transport Reuse of effluents Recovery of nutrients Control of pathogens, toxics (HMs, PACs and radionuclide s) Recovery of compost and detritus Recycling of glass, metals, plastics and fibres Control of air pollution, fines and aerosols Cleaner production Rodent and insect control Ventilation and flushing regime Gijs Kok Brooklyn Bridge Manhattan Bridge

5 Mega cities-mega opportunity: City Agriculture? Educational greens in inner city Conservation greens in the buffer zones Production greensin the fringes of the urban space, spreading out and expanding into the production zones in the rural areas. No development on prime agricultural land! Gijs Kok Sandy Hook View

6 Mega cities Mega opportunities! Institutional and financial reforms: Role Utility Company: Metered water supply systems Joint billing for water, waste water and solid waste Payment by I-phone Stimulation of the willingness and ability tp pay Creation of problem ownership for health, water and sanitation Role of the government: Zoning of urban land in educational, protection and production greens No development on prime agricultural lands Gijs Kok Evening in Lower Manhattan Role of the private sector: Picking-up opportunities for agricultural production Shortening the supply and demand chain with the I-phone Emphasis on cleaner production and recycling

7 Mega cities: Geophysical constraints: Altitude (high plateau <-> delta cities) Latitude (moderate <-> tropical cities) Geology (bed rock <-> alluvial planesa) Seismicity (earth quakes, landslides, tsunamis) Soils (low <-> high infiltration / fertility) Groundwater (shallow <-> deep; subsidence) Climate (air quality <-> ventilation capacity) Floods and droughts (water quality <-> quantity) Healthy versus unhealthy cities? Gijs Kok Wallice CH at end of Pleistocene

8 Mega Regions in Africa Mega Regions, Africa, 2025 Cairo-Giza Population 2025: 17.6 M Lagos and Eko Atlantic City Region Population 2025: 25 M Mega Regions in 2025 Potential Mega Regions in 2030 Johannesburg & Pretoria Region Johannesburg, Sandton, Randburg, Midrand, Centurion, and Pretoria Population 2025: 7.6 M Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012); World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision; and Frost & Sullivan analysis.

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10 Mega Slums in Africa Forecast of Major Slums, Africa, 2050 Splintered Urbanization African urban communities will be comprised of 70% informal settlement dwellers living alongside an emerging middle class, similar to condition in India. Percent of Urban Residents by Type of Settlement, Africa, 2020 Lagos, Nigeria 75% of population lives in informal settlements Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo Luanda, Angola Cacuaco to have 600,000-plus people Cape Town, South Africa Khayelitsha Chad 99.4% of country s population lives in informal settlements Johannesburg/Pretoria Soweto Ethiopia 99.4% of country s population lives in informal settlements Nairobi, Kenya Kibera to have 1 million-plus people Maputo, Mozambique Source: UN-Habitat and Frost & Sullivan analysis.

11 Mega Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%, 1.2 billion people, 60% of Africa Africa s population, will be urbanised by 2050 Growth of African Cities Algiers 3.6 million % increase, forecast Alexandria 5.6 million Casablanca 4.1 million Addis Ababa 4.7 million Dakar 4.3 million Abidjan 6.3million Accra 3.5 million Ibadan 3.2 million Douala 3.1 million Nairobi 6.2 million Luanda 8 million Cape Town 3.8 million Migration Mega City population, 2025 Urban Population, 2025 Dar es Salaam 6.2 million Durban 3.2 million Data Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010

12 Infrastructure Development in SubSub-Saharan Africa Overview of Development in Key Sectors Transport Energy $174 billion $139 billion Legend: Investment ($ billion) < 0.5 High value investments (>$1 billion) Focus on road, rail and port networks Total investment in ongoing infrastructure projects in SubSaharan Africa (excluding ICT & Telecoms) amounts to $378 billion Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis *based on active projects in Historical reliance on thermal/hydropower Increased focus on driving renewables Secondary Focus for Govts Could pose major risk in medium/longterm >15.0 Water Social $20 billion $45 billion Driven by Millenium Development Goals High reliance on Development Aid

13 Would sustainable mega cities in SSA exist? Gijs Kok Governors Island Lower Manhattan