Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia

Transcription

1 P.O. Box 123 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya tel: fax: FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia July and August 218 Upate (Issued September 28, 218) Highlights Inflation: SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Compared to June 218, consumer Index (CPI) changed mildly (by 3-6%) in July and August of 218. CPI declined (by 8-17%) compared to a year ago due to decreases in cereal prices. Zeilac DJIBOUTI Awdal Borama Woq. Galbeed Erigabo Sanag Bossaso Bari SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI remained relatively stable compared to June 218 but increased mildly (3-4%) compared to a year ago (July and August 217). Tog-Wajaale Hargeisa Burao Togdheer Sool Lasanod Garowe Nugal Exchange rate: SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (less than +/- 8%) against USD in most regions of the country compared to June and July 218. Annual comparison indicates that SoSh is mildly losing value (less than 1%) in most of SoSh using areas. SISh-using areas: The SISh remained relatively stable against the USD compared to last month while annual comparison indicates a depreciation (of 4-7%) due to increased supply of newly printed local currency notes and a decline in the availability of USD due to reduced livestock exports and export revenue. Local cereal prices exhibited monthly and annual mild changes (less than +/- 1%) in most of the northern and central regions but declined (by 9 to 26 %) in most of the southern regions in both July and August 218 due to increased cereal supply as a result of improved Gu 218 harvest. s of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (less than +/-1%) in local currency terms in July and August 218 against preceding months across the country. Similarly, compared to one year ago, prices exhibited mild changes (mostly increases) in most regions for most food imports. Exceptions are Middle Juba, and Northwest regions where prices increased moderately (13-26%) due to loss of value of Somaliland shilling in Northwest and reduced supply as a result of disrupted movement of food imports into Middle Juba due to fighting/confrontation between government forces and insurgents. Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel mostly exhibited mild monthly changes (less than +/- 1%) in most regions during July and August 218. Compared to a year ago (July and August 217), most regions exhibited increases in goat and camel prices due to improved livestock body conditions and increased demand for livestock during the Hajj festivities in August 218. Milk prices (camel and cattle) mostly exhibited mild to moderate seasonal declines in most regions of the country compared to last month in July and August 218 due to increased supply as a result of improved calving and increased availability of water and pasture. On the other hand, milk prices (mainly camel) are still higher compared to last year in most regions of the country due to less milk supply because of low camel calving resulting from less conception in previous seasons. Dusa Mareb Galgadud El Barde Belet Weyne Haradhere Bakol Dolo Hudur Hiran Aden Yabal El Der Luuq Belet Xawo Gedo Baidoa M. Shabelle El Waq Qansah Dere Monitored Market Jowhar Dinsor Bay Wanle Weyne Bardera Market Catchment Afgoye Qoryoley Banadir Central Merka L. Shabelle Juba Valley Buale Juba Hagar North East Doobley Jilib Afmadow North West Jamame Shabelle Valley Kismayo Sorghum belt Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Abudwaq Galkayo Mudug Major Road Regional Boundary This Market Update is a monthly report that presents analysis of market information and is produced regularly as part of the monthly monitoring process. The weekly price data is collected from 46 main markets and 2 rural markets throughout Somalia since 199. Market analysis is an integral part of all of FSNAU s annual food security projections and seasonal technical reports (Technical Reports on FSNAU Post Gu and Post Deyr Analysis). Detailed market data are available online on www. fsnau.org/ids. Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (by less than +/-1%) in July and August 218 in most of the northern and central regions but increased from mild to moderate levels in most of the southern regions due to increased labor demand for harvesting activities in July and August 218. Compared to a year ago, labor wages mostly exhibited increases in most regions of the country due to improved agricultural labor opportunities associated with improved rainfall performance and harvest prospects this year compared to last year. Exception is Middle Juba where wage rates declined (19-2%) in July and August 218 due to reduced labor opportunities compared to last year as a result of recent fighting between government forces and insurgents in the region. (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals either remained relatively stable or increased in most regions of the country compared to last month in July and August 218 due to increased wage rates and/or decreased cereal prices. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions due to increased labor wages and/or decrease in cereal prices. The ToT between local quality goat and cereals mostly exhibited increases in most regions of the country in July and August 218 compared to June 218 and a year ago due to increased goat prices and/or decrease in cereal prices. Siege-affected towns (Bulo-Burto, Wajid, Dinsor and Hudur) Labor (unskilled) wages in July and August 218 exhibited mild monthly changes compared to a month ago. Compared to last year labor wage rates were higher in all the markets. (ToTs) between daily labor wage and cereals and between local quality goat and cereals increased compared to both last month and a year ago in July and August 218 due to increase in goat prices, daily labor wage and/or decrease in cereal prices compared last month and a year ago. Local grain (red and white sorghum) prices exhibited mild (less than 1%) to moderate (32-9%) declines compared to last month and a year ago due to increased supply in the markets as a result of improved Gu 218 harvest. s of imported food items (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) changed (by less than +/-1%) at mild rates for most of the food imports in all siege-affected markets compared to last month in July and August 218. On the other hand, compared to a year ago, prices of most food imports mostly declined in Bulo-Burto and Dinsor but mildly changed (by less than +/-1%) in Wajid and Hudur.

2 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, Cereal s and Relative Purchasing Power Table 1: ToT betwen Daily Wage Rate and Cereals by Region July and August 218 Regions For July 218 July 218 (kg) June 218 kg change from July 217 July yr ( ) Banadir/Mogadishu (White maize) Bay (Red sorghum) Bakool (Red sorghum) Gedo (Red sorghum) Juba (White maize) Shabelle (White maize) Northwest (Imported Rice) Northeast (Imported Rice) 8 Central (Imported Rice) Figure 1: Wheat s: Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Regions For August 218 August 218 (kg) July 218 kg change from August 217 August yr ( ) Banadir/Mogadishu (White maize) Bay (Red sorghum) Bakool (Red sorghum) Gedo (Red sorghum) Juba (White maize) Shabelle (White maize) 14 7 Northwest (Imported Rice) Northeast (Imported Rice) 8 Central (Imported Rice) per Kg 17, 16, 1, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, Bossaso Mogadishu August September October November December January February March April May June July August Figure 2: Between Wage Rates and Selected Cereals Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT to Rice (NW) TOT to Maize (Juba & Shabelle) TOT to Rice (Central & NE) Source: FSNAU Manfest Monitoring System Figure 3: ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) SoSh per US Dollar 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, Baidoa(SoSh) Bosasso(SoSh) Galkayo(SoSh) Mogadishu(SoSh) Hargeisa(SlSh) 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, SlSh per US Dollar 1,, Figure 4: ly Trends in Consumer Index (CPI, March 27=1) Figure : ly Trends in Local Cereal s CPI CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) per Kg (SoSH) 39, 36, 33, 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 1, 12, 9, 6, 3, Aug-14 Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Nov-14 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) SorghumBelt(Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, per Kg (SLSH) 2

3 Regional analysis: Juba Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 23,2 2,37 23,62 22,7 1,716-4% 12% -3% Imported Red Rice 1kg 1,484 1,7 17,438 16,719 7,849-4% 6% 8% Petrol 1 litre 2,812 22, 2,87 24,7 11,667-4% 1% -4% Sugar 1,969 16,844 17,969 16,688 7,834-7% -1% % Vegetable Oil 1 litre 3,62 28,63 3,313 29,7 14,44-2% 4% -1% Wheat Flour 1kg 1,193 1,94 16,96 16,188 7,96-4% 4% 7% Wheat Grain 1kg 16, Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 7,936 8,83 7, 6,72 3,97-4% -17% -1% White Maize 1kg 9, 9,43 8,447 7,788 3,63-8% -17% -14% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 9,938,767 11,2,83 13,12, 14,29,167 6,669,921 7% 21% 41% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,98,998 3,884,722 3,8,714 3,646,429 1,733,7 2% -6% -7% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 1,3 16,281 18,46 17,969 8,443-2% 1% 16% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,39,87 1,6, 1,64,62 1,7,313 81,673 4% 7% 23% Goat Local Quality (Head) 871,24 911,48 919,688 1,, 47,34 9% 1% 1% Charcoal kg 83,779 93,82 13,438 96,844 4,943-6% 3% 16% Cowpeas 1 kg 21,398 23,714 2,16 23,688 11,162-6% % 11% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 93,66 1,16 12,83 16,94,341 4% 1% 13% Firewood Bundle 8,473 7,36 7,63 7,2 3,347-4% 3% -14% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 62,619 49,66 61,12 63,62 3,1 4% 28% 2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,796 22,938 24,16 23,938 11,281 % 4% 1% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 27% 4% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 32% 29% Indices Consumer Index % -18% - Figure 6: Trends in Cereal s Figure 7: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2 /Cereal TOT 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 8: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 9: Goat Local Quality 6, 4, 2, Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) per Unit (SoSh) Figure 1: Exchange Rate Figure 11: Water Drum (2 litres) 3

4 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 27,78 23,78 26,767 26,271 12,39-2% 11% -% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,461 19,48 19,84 19,438 9,142-2% % % Petrol 1 litre 28,921 27,78 29,1 29,28 13,787 % % 1% Sugar 19,372 2,667 2,917 19,938 9,379 -% -4% 3% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 36,216 3,42 36,767 3,84 16,946-2% 2% -1% Wheat Flour 1kg 17,486 17,87 18,133 18, 8,48-1% 1% 3% Wheat Grain 1kg 16,83 18,7 18,8 17,7 8,339-6% -% % Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 9,19 11, 7,788 7,32 3,372-6% -37% -19% White Maize 1kg 1,24 12,7 8,71 7,92 3,66-9% -34% -22% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 12,22,89 11,267, 12,348,6 12,126,2,76,199-2% 8% -1% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,42,116 2,62,37 3,82,7 3,11,63 1,431,716-2% 1% -13% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 18,936 2,182 27,6 27,979 13,22 1% 11% 48% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,83,234 1,627,7 1,91,91 1,66, ,84 1% -1% 1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 92, , ,2 1,16,2 483,6 3% 31% 1% Charcoal kg 1,874 17,4 187, ,432 87,86-2% % 22% Cowpeas 1 kg 2,7 37,979 2,7 24,7 11,667-4% -3% -3% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 96,31 94,479 99,833 11,667 48,237 2% 8% 6% Firewood Bundle 6,42 6,167,67,667 2,94 2% -8% -12% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 78,24 81,889 86,244 8,36 38,81-7% -2% 2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,736 22,83 24,32 24,44 11,22 1% 7% 12% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice (Kg) - % % % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice (Kg) 4 2-4% 3% 4% Indices Consumer Index % -18% - 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Figure 12: Trends in Cereal s Gedo Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bay Cereal (Red Sorghum) Bakool Cereal (Red Sorghum) Hiraan Cereal (White Sorghum) Figure 13:Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) Figure 14: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 1: Goat Local Quality 6, per Unit (SoSh) 4, 2, Figure 16: Exchange Rate Figure 17: Water Drum (2 litres) 4

5 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 23,49 16,833 19,87 19,417 9,132-2% 1% -16% Imported Red Rice 1kg 16, 16, 16,2 16,2 7,626 % -2% 1% Petrol 1 litre 26,18 19,87 21,833 2,78 9,74 -% 4% -21% Sugar 17,2 17,833 16,62 16,417 7,7-1% -8% -6% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 27,78 28,78 28,792 27,62 13,34-4% -4% % Wheat Flour 1kg 1,8 1,37 14,78 13,792 6,47-6% -1% -13% Wheat Grain 1kg 17,833-17, 16, 7,74-6% - -7% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 1,34 13,14 7,7 6,943 3,21-1% -47% -31% White Maize 1kg 7,674 9,348 6,31,273 2,47-16% -44% -31% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 17,36,292 17,641,48 16,731,2 17,712, 8,421,123 6% % 2% Cattle Local Quality (Head),66, 4,22, 4,766,2 4,623,12 2,197,916-3% 9% -18% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 18,18 2,917 21,7 22,37 1,38 3% 7% 24% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,932,7 1,88,7 1,91,87 2,28,7 964,448 7% 12% % Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,334,83 1,294,167 1,47, 1,479,167 73,14 % 14% 11% Charcoal kg 126,66 137,28 171, ,736 79,173-3% 21% 32% Cowpeas 1 kg 23,767 4,694 18,667 1,34 7,2-18% -66% -3% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 7,791 67,83 87,78 73,611 34,898-16% 1% 4% Firewood Bundle 6,374,62 7,292 6,917 3,189 -% 23% 9% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 6,693 2,2,48,78 26,386 % 7% -2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,913 23,22 24,183 24,111 11,363 % 4% 1% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 1% 6% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg) % 14% 6% Indices Consumer Index % -18% - Figure 18: Trends in Cereal s Figure 19: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, Cereal 12, /Cereal TOT 2 1, 8, 6, 4, 1, 8, 6, 4, Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2, 2, Figure 2: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 21: Goat Local Quality 6, per Unit (SoSh) 4, 2, Figure 22: Exchange Rate Figure 23: Water Drum (2 litres)

6 Regional analysis: Banadir Region -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 17,731 13,392 14,292 14,8 6,84-2% % -21% Imported Red Rice 1kg 12,118 11,917 12,82 12,333,764-4% 3% 2% Petrol 1 litre 19,293 1,833 16,667 16,7 7,864 % 6% -13% Sugar 14, 14,7 13,67 13,167 6,16 1% -11% -6% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 22,23 22,417 23,117 22,167 1,439-4% -1% -2% Wheat Flour 1kg 11,33 12,12 11,7 1,78 4,991-3% -12% -7% Wheat Grain 1kg 11,93 16,12 1, 1, 7,32 % -7% 3% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 7,429 1,42 8,37 7,9 3,68-7% -2% 7% White Maize 1kg 9,399 12,342 9,773 8,78 4,64-1% -29% -7% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) Cattle Local Quality (Head) Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 23,93 27,333 27,333 27,333 12,89 % % 16% Goat Export Quality (Head) 2,1, 2,7, 1,96, 2,1, 1,22,9 1% -2% -1% Goat Local Quality (Head) 2,6, 2,1, 1,62, 1,77, 843,8 1% -17% -14% Charcoal kg 197, 218, 224,167 22, 16,874 % 3% 14% Cowpeas 1 kg 23,688 47,67 21,12 2,9 9,86-1% -% -12% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 18,966 8,833 8,7 97, 46,2 14% 21% -11% Firewood Bundle 7,6 8, 8, 8, 3,74 % % % Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 6,33 3,667 9,333 9,667 28,268 1% 11% 6% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 21,67 22,692 23,622 23,7 11,168 % 4% 1% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 14% -11% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % -2% -1% Indices Consumer Index % -18% - Figure 24: Trends in Cereal s Figure 2: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2, 18, 16, Cereal (Maize) 22, 2, 18, /Cereal TOT , 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 26: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate 6, 4, 2, Figure 27: Goat Local Quality Figure 28: Exchange Rate Figure 29: Wheat Flour 6

7 Regional analysis: Central Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 24,66 23,68 21, 21,4 1,32 2% -1% -13% Imported Red Rice 1kg 18,474 19,2 19,2 18,8 8,81-2% -2% 2% Petrol 1 litre 24,28 2,6 24,8 2,32 11,888 2% -1% 4% Sugar 21,14 23,2 21, 21,72 1,184 3% -6% 3% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 4,248 42,6 3,1 3,1 16,19 % -18% -13% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,278 16,2 16,8 16,8 7,84 % 4% 3% Wheat Grain 1kg 16,792 22, 18, 18, 8,422 % -18% 7% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 12,818 14,667 13, 12,,818-7% -1% -2% White Maize 1kg 13,49 14,7 16,8 16,2 7,94-4% 1% 2% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 11,78,7 1,2, 13,6, 13,6, 6,439,13 % 33% 16% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 3,286 2, 63,8 6, 3,67 2% 2% 84% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,332,766 1,2, 1,788, 1,7, 828,462-2% 4% 31% Goat Local Quality (Head) 96,8 8, 1,174,8 1,192,96 64,724 2% 4% 24% Charcoal kg 174,84 218, 22,4 22,4 14,22 % 1% 26% Cowpeas 1 kg 3,282 9,8 28,6 39,6 18,649 38% -34% 31% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 89, 94, 118,4 118,,769 % 26% 32% Firewood Bundle 33,14 3, 32,6 32,6 1,33 % -7% -2% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 8,74 8, 84, 82, 38,724-2% 2% -4% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 23,61 27,7 2,7 2,7 12,92 % -% 12% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice Kg) % 2% % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice Kg) % 43% 21% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Rice Kg) % 36% 14% Indices Consumer Index % -9% - Figure 3: Trends in Cereal s Figure 31: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power 4, 3, 12, /Cereal TOT 2 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 32: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 33: Goat Local Quality 8, 6, 4, 2, per Unit (SoSh) Figure 34: Exchange Rate Figure 3: Water Drum (2 litres) 7

8 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 22,24 2,964 2,7 2,179 8,797 1% 2% 13% Imported Red Rice 1kg 17,427 18,71 18,414 18,679 6, 1% 3% 7% Petrol 1 litre 23,4 24,121 28,67 29,18 1,13 1% 2% 24% Sugar 2,67 22,786 21,129 21,2 7,49 1% -7% 3% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 3,1 34,2 3,86 34,464 12,78-2% 1% -2% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,784 17,286 17,3 17, 6,84 1% 1% 4% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,46 34,1 31,32 31,6 11,66 1% -7% 4% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 22,67 26,7 2,7 26,37 9,22 3% -1% 16% White Maize 1kg 21,12 21, 22,1 24, 8,38 9% 12% 14% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,166,4 14,976, 17,171, 16,332,7,771,16 -% 9% 8% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 9,6, 11,, 13,4, 14,, 4,946,747 4% 27% % Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 42,43 7,267 6,28 4,931 19,31-3% -4% 29% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,464,3 1,, 1,676, 1,747, 617,373 4% 12% 19% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,39,178 1,37,714 1,64,71 1,666,786 88,83 1% 22% 23% Charcoal kg 37,7 378, ,87 392, 138,88 % 4% 1% Cowpeas 1 kg 41,84 62,361 66, 63,896 22,477-3% 2% 3% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 136,9 14, 144, ,17 2,86 3% 7% 9% Firewood Bundle 36,671 47,2 62,429 61,786 21,732-1% 31% 68% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 11,94 111, 12,8 122,7 43,273 2% 1% 2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 22,82 27,786 29,3 29,929 1,47 2% 8% 33% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % % % Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % 17% 14% Indices Consumer Index % -2% - 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, Figure 36: Trends in Cereal s Cereal (Rice) Figure 37: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 38: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 39: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) 6, 4, 2, Figure 4: Exchange Rate Figure 41: Water Drum (2 litres) 8

9 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions -Year ( ) Real Same -year avrg ( ) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 6,262,931 7,4 7,4,18 % 2% 18% Imported Red Rice 1kg,137,24 6,4 6,6 4,4 1% 26% 28% Petrol 1 litre 7,12 7,6 8,7 8,7 6,23 % 1% 22% Sugar,872 6,3 7,26 7,26,9 % 1% 24% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 12,42 12,8 12,38 12,2 8,486-3% -% -2% Wheat Flour 1kg 4,44 4,,4,3 3,63-2% 18% 17% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,898 4,62,2,2 3,9 % 14% 3% Cereal s White Sorghum 1kg 4,46, 4,6 4,7 3,28 2% -7% 16% Yellow Maize 1kg 4,281,7 6,4 6,4 4,44 % 11% 49% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 4,433,249,23,333 4,733,333 4,46,667 3,199,746-4% -9% 3% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,34,17 2,83,417 3,19, 3,29,167 2,131,762 -% 7% 2% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 7,82 11,4 1,7 1, 7,29-2% -8% 38% Goat Export Quality (Head) 47,218 33,12 82,12 18,7 364,98-11% -3% 9% Goat Local Quality (Head) 36,83 426,81 467,6 421, 296,191-1% -1% 1% Charcoal kg 8,72 74, 81,4 8, 6,4-1% 9% 37% Cowpeas 1 kg 12,622 19, 18, 18,62 13,8 3% -4% 48% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 3,26 63,4 83,48 82,28 7,87-1% 3% 4% Firewood Bundle 4,19,333 6, 6, 4,47 % 22% 44% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 33,87 37, 36,7 36,7 2,764 % -1% 9% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD 7,617 9,8 1,2 9,96 6,913-1% 4% 31% Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % % 2% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg) % -21% -9% Indices Consumer Index % 3% - Figure 42: Trends in Cereal s Figure 43: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 7, Cereal (Rice) 8, 2 SLSH 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, SLSH 6, 4, 2, /Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 44: Imported Commodity s Compared to Exchange Rate Figure 4: Goat Local Quality 14, 12, per Unit (SLSh) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 46: Exchange Rate Figure 47: Water Drum (2 litres) 9

10 Trends in Livestock Exports Table 1: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Shoats Cattle , Camel , Figure 48: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR Table 2: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) (Jan-Jul) Shoats Cattle , Camel Figure 49: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR 1

11 Trends in Cereal Imports Table 3: Total Cereal Imports through Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu Ports (Tonnes) * * * 216* (Jan-Jul) Rice 63, Wheat flour Pasta * Elman (Mogadishu) is up to November 21. Mogadishu Data (Elmaan Por) for 213 includes only January-March imports. Berbera Data is up to December 216. Figure : Total Cereal Imports (Berbera, Bossaso and Mogadishu) 4, 3, Rice Wheat flour Pasta 3, Tonnes 2, 2, 1, 1,, Year 11