"Understanding food availability in the context of extreme events

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1 "Understanding food availability in the context of extreme events Evidence from subsistence farmers in Central America Adaptation Futures Conference Rotterdam, Holland May th, 2016 Presents: Bárbara Viguera Co-authors: Francisco Alpízar, Milagro Saborío, Tabaré Capitán, Lucía Contreras, Celia Harvey, Ruth Martínez-Rodríguez, Raffaele Vignola CASCADE Project Climate change is threating small farmers worldwide, affecting their food security Little is known in Central America 1

2 Regional context (I) Central America is highly vulnerable to extreme events (GW, 2015) agriculturers.com NASA More frequent and more intense extreme events are expected in the near future (IPCC, 2014) Introduction Regional context (II) 2.3 million families depend on agriculture (FAO, 2011) Vulnerable Dependence Unequal oportunities High exposure to CC, EE and others Significant contribution to GDP 60% food insecure (estimate) Introduction It s necessary to understand subsistence farmers vulnerability and food insecurity drivers related to extreme International 2

3 Main objective To explore the patterns and determinants of seasonal and transitory episodes of food insecurity among smallholder farmers, resulting from extreme hydrometeorological events. Objective CASCADE project CASCADE Ecosystem-based Adaptation for Smallholder Subsistence and Coffee Farming communities in Central America Context The overall goal of the CASCADE project is to help vulnerable smallholder farming systems adapt to climate change by identifying and testing Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategies that can help farmers, and building local capacity to support the implementation of these strategies in smallholder farming communities Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica EbA as adaptation strategy with co-benefits (CBD, 2009) 3

4 Methodology (I): Population and sample Target population Smallholder subsistence (maize or beans) farmers of highly vulnerable communities, exposed to extreme events. Household survey Study sites Guatemala: Acatenango & Trifinio Honduras: Choluteca & Yoro Sample size: 466 households. 94% of those farmers have been affected by extreme weather events in the last 10 years Methods Methodology (II): Concepts 1- FOOD SHORTAGE as direct outcome indicator. Types of food unavailability (FAO, 2008) Regular food unavailability (not caused by an extreme event) SEASONAL (june-july-aug) After extreme event TRANSITORY Addapted by authors from Ittersum and Giller, Extreme weather events (EE) Types: drought, heavy rain, hurricane, flood EE suffered in the last 10 years EE that impacted the most Methods 4

5 Next steps Preliminary results 12/05/2016 Methodology (III): Data analysis 1. Household - farm characteristics, and EE exposure 2. Contrast Food Secure Vs Food Insecure in both Seasonal and Transitory shortages 3. Analyze the household s coping strategies in response to food shortages after extreme event 4. Econometric analysis of food insecurity drivers in drought Vs flooding events 5. Role of adaptation on achieving food security Methods How are subsistence families in Central America? Household characteristics Pooled Acatenango Trifinio Choluteca Yoro Female household head (%) 26% 22% 26% 28% 28% Education (Complete primary or more) (%) 30% 28% 29% 33% 28% Experience (years) Household size (number of people) Women in the household (%) 50% 47% 53% 51% 48% In-farm work (number of HH members) Off-farm work (number of HH members) Have at least one migrant (%) 24% 11% 34% 34% 32% Number of farmers Landscapes are very similar in terms of socioeconomic variables Differences in labor allocation are evident Preliminary results 5

6 What are the main characteristics at farm level? Farm's crops Pooled Acatenango Trifinio Choluteca Yoro Number of plots (avg) Farm area (average hectares) Maize Beans Coffee Total Crops (% of households) Maize 98% 97% 100% 100% 97% Beans 76% 69% 94% 65% 79% Coffee 29% 58% 20% 0% 49% Crops for sale (% of households) Maize 25% 22% 20% 35% 18% Beans 19% 21% 26% 12% 19% Coffee 23% 58% 13% 0% 32% Number of farmers Maize and beans production is mainly for subsistence Coffee (cash crop) makes the difference among landscapes Preliminary results Several EE in the last 10 years reported Despite the relative closeness, landscapes show salient differences in the distribution of extreme events Extreme events in the community, by landscape (%) Acatenango Chiquimula Choluteca Yoro Drought Hurricane Flood Heavy rain Crops (90%), household income (60%) and food availability (50%) face high exposure to extreme events, specially droughts, while water-related events also affect at community level Cecilia Schubert (CCAFS) Preliminary results 6

7 Are those experiencing food unavailability after the main extreme event the ones that would have experimented it anyways? Food unavailability Transitory No Yes Total Seasonal No Yes Total A higher share of households suffer food unavailability regularly (56%) than food unavailability after the main event (48%). Some HH characteristics vary in the food security gradient Household characteristics I. Both FI types II. Transitory F. insecure Seasonally F. secure III. Transitory F. secure Seasonally F. insecure IV. Both FS types Female household head (%) 27% 26% 32% 25% Education (Complete primary or more) (%) 25% 28% 32% 37% Experience (years) Household size (number of people) ** Women in the household (%) 50% 48% 52% 49% In-farm work (number of HH members) *** Off-farm work (number of HH members) Have at least one migrant (%) 32% 29% 18% 17% ** Number of farmers

8 Coffee production and sale contribute to food security Farm's crops I. Both FI types II. Transitory F. insecure Seasonally F. secure III. Transitory F. secure Seasonally F. insecure IV. Both FS types Number of plots (avg) Total farm area (average hectares) Crops (% of households) Maize 100% 97% 98% 98% Beans 79% 72% 82% 69% * Coffee 23% 25% 30% 36% * Crops for sale (% of households) Maize 25% 28% 20% 25% Beans 16% 28% 16% 18% Coffee 13% 21% 22% 34% *** Number of farmers How farmers cope with extreme events impacts? Facing food shortage, farmers tend to eat less (59%), change their diet (35%), migrate (15%) and use savings (13%) Migration (38%) and savings (31%) are also household strategies to cope with income reduction, but a smaller share of households reacts to that (39%) When extreme weather events affect crop fields, most farmers simply replant the crops using the same varieties. Preliminary results 8

9 Conclusions and significance for practical solutions 56% of the HH are reguar food insecure and 48% are transitory food insecure, not including under/malnurishment. Flooding events are more frequent but drought s impacts on livelihoods are more intense. Subsistence farmers food security is at risk due to high exposure to impacts of extreme events in crops, income, and food availability: Event thought the situation is chronical, food insecurity presents a seasonal pattern. Decisions at HH level explain food security better than Farm characteristics. Higher migration related with food insecurity. Is it a reaction after suffer food shortage or the other way around? Vulnerability groups varies when facing an extreme event (half-bread groups) Coffee has a relevant role on food security of subsistence communities. Promote crop diversification based on other (compatible) cash crops could help to achieve food security in CA. Take home messages Conclusions and significance for practical solutions Coping strategies facing extreme events impacts are inadequate and insuficient: Farmers answers are similar facing flooding and water shortage extreme events. Copping strategies implemented by farmers tends to reduce their resilience. Work with farmers is needed to improve their reactions and promote their opportunities. Adaptation to extreme events is positively related with food unavailability after an extrem event, suggesting that adaptation to EE is reactive, not preventive. Interesting to complement these results with an analysis of the use of food, the redistribution of food in the household as an strategy complementary to eat less, continue analyzing drivers and the adaptation role, among other issues. Take home messages 9

10 References CBD CONNECTING BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION. Key Messages from the Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change. Published by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 16 p. Canada. ISBN: p. FAO An Introduction to the Basic Concepts of Food Security. Food Security Information for Action. Practical Guides. Published by the EC - FAO Food Security Programme. FAO Centroamérica en Cifras. Datos de Seguridad Alimentaria Nutricional y Agricultura Familiar. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 28 p. Germanwatch GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2013 and 1994 to IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp Ittersum, M. and Giller, K.E The First International Conference on Global Food Security A Synthesis. Global Food Security Volume 3, Issues 3 4, November 2014, Pages ISSN , ( Literature review Thanks Bárbara Viguera bviguera@catie.ac.cr CASCADE Project 10