Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Transcription

1 Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys Simon Funge-Smith Secretary, Asia-Pacific fishery Commission (APFIC) FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

2 We know inland fisheries are important in some Asian countries Inland fisheries a source of food and food security throughout the Asian region 9 Asian countries in top 16 inland fisheries producers 11 Asian countries produce 65.5 % of reported global inland fisheries production Often overlooked national statistics considerations of food security Inland fisheries are a vital part of some rural people's livelihoods a major nutritional role especially for vulnerable populations Roadside sale of dried fish Lao PDR

3 Inland statistics and valuations are weak Monitoring of inland fisheries remains rather poor Many countries reports are estimates, not based on actual measures of production unreliable statistics reduces confidence in the data prevents effective analysis at the subnational level Often an assumption that production is homogeneous Actually highly variable sub-nationally downscaling important for assessing importance, role and vulnerabilities as well as potential impacts Leads to mis-directed or uninformed policy Fermented fish ngapi Myanmar

4 Household consumption and expenditure surveys Consumption of fish can be picked up by national household surveys statistically significant conducted regularly high level of statistical accuracy Can be triangulated with other data production/trade stats population census agricultural census Tonle Sap flooded village Cambodia

5 Surveys provide idea of sub-national variability Provide detail on consumption patterns and habits detail on commodities and food types consumed and purchased contribution of fish to total protein consumption Downscaled information by district/province/region urban rural by income bands Can inform fisheries and natural resource policies that impact vulnerable segments of the population fishery dependent areas Water snail dredging Tonle Sap, Cambodia

6 Example - validating inland production in Myanmar Large annual increases in reported inland capture production 389 percent over a decade recognition of historic underestimation no statistical basis for annual increases? no natural inter-annual variation Potential to validate with household consumption survey? 75% of fish from inland or estuarine waters majority from capture fisheries. inland capture fisheries ~750,000 tonnes Reported production over-estimated? household consumption surveys often under-estimate consumption. But..unlikley to be 50% off? 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , ,000 tonnes

7 Example - Cambodia Massive inland fisheries Huge increases in late 1990 s Inclusion of previously unreported small scale fisheries Reported inland production ~450,000 tonnes Consumption surveys help validate massively increased production estimate total national fish consumption ~890,344 tonnes 71% of fish from inland Inland ~630,000 tonnes So current reports may still be under-estimates! 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,

8 Lao PDR - fishery or aquaculture? Statistics reported to FAO indicate aquaculture provides 75% of fish inland capture fishery only 25% of fish Household consumption survey indicates source of fish, locations Aquaculture only 22% inland fisheries 88 % Fisheries probably grossly under reported and undervalued dependency varies within country implications for water policy Consumption figures already exceed national reported production

9 India - inland fishery production estimates periodically reset? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% % -30% -40% 13 cases of inter-annual variations >20% Sometimes as much as 40% Not really explained by drought/flood years? Resetting by national statistical reporters? Surveys may help validate production totals Reduce fluctuations

10 Consumption surveys have limitations Can be frustrating Generally under-estimation? Recall is vulnerable to biases Distinguishing source of fish difficult Can be guessed or estimated by product form or species Seasonal data may not capture highs and lows surveys conducted in dry season for easy access, may miss monsoon peak production period May need some interpretation to account for conversions under- over- estimation errors e.g. adjust for fresh weights of reported dried and processed foods Fish traps Mekong river, Lao PDR

11 Improving the value of surveys Mixed wild & stocked fish Aquaculture Getting the sampling and questions right yields valuable additional information on sources of products e.g. aquaculture, inland fishery, marine fishery rule out seasonality May support indicative of proxy estimates of inland fishery production Important where inland fishery production statistics are estimated with little or no basis

12 Summary Inland statistics are weak substantial heterogeneity in national production lack of understanding gives misleading policy Household consumption and expenditure surveys can give excellent idea of sub-national consumption of fish can validate erroneous production estimates can support indicative of proxy estimates of inland fishery production Important where inland fishery production statistics are estimated with little or no basis They do have weaknesses may be less good for splitting fishery/aquaculture need to account for wet weight conversions Getting the questions right reduces errors and gives information on sources of production