Modelling agricultural management in multi-model simulation systems

Transcription

1 icropm2016 March 15-17, 2016, Berlin, Germany Modelling agricultural management in multi-model simulation systems Marcello Donatelli 1, Simone Bregaglio 2, Tommaso Stella 2, Gianni Fila 1 1 CREA, Research Center for Agriculture and Environment, Bologna, Italy 2 University of Milano, Dep. of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it

2 Agro-management and model development There is an increasing demand to integrate crop/cropping system models with additional modules, such as for pest and diseases, agro-chemicals fate, impact of tillage on soil hydraulic properties etc. Multi-model runs are becoming a procedure for system dynamics analysis, targeting also adaptation. Impact models for agro-management are diversified in response to a specific event. Whether metadata for «weather» or «soil» are widely accepted, the definition of agro-management remains mostly specific to each simulation system. marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 2

3 Agro-management in crop models In process-based crop/cropping system simulation models, agricultural management is implemented as: In most cases there is a fixed set of rules and of impact models, with the specific impact model parameters. Impact models are fixed for a specific AM action. marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 3

4 Requirements of a multi-model system «Rule» models must be extensible. «Impact» parameters must be extensible. Rule models must be decoupled from impact models a given agromanagement action might be relevant for different model compartments; which model components are used cannot be known a priori in and extensible system. «Agromanagement» plans must be formalized and independent from specific modelling platforms. marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 4

5 The AgroManagement approach The approach is based on couples rule model-impact parameters which target a specific production enterprise. The system is extensible independently by third parties for rules and impact parameter sets. Impact models (e.g. for crops, soil, diseases) are programmed against specific impact parameter sets. AgroManagement is unaware of the impact models which will impact on the system of interest. marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 5

6 Decoupling agroman rules and impacts There is no link between agromanagement and impact models implemented in the model components of a modelling solution. Impact models, when an event is triggered, test if a parameter object known is published as condition to run the model. marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 6

7 Schema of AgroManagement plans 7

8 Targeting specific production enterprises A parameters is used for rule testing to target specific production enterprises, the «rotation year». Simulation year Rotation year Simulation year Rotation year monocrop three-years rotation st rotation cycle 2 nd rotation cycle marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 8

9 Example: the plan for a three years rotation Grid representation of the XML file marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 9

10 Impact parameters: base types Programming an impact model against a base type, and searching the corresponding interface at run time, ensures compatibility across all parameter sets for a specific action type marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 10

11 Wheat sowing date in Morocco The AgroManagement component was used to develop a yield forecasting system for wheat crop in Morocco based on crop models. The objective was to improve models accuracy via the correct estimation of the sowing date, considering the impact of weather variability and farmer s practices. The narrative description of the conditions to be fulfilled to perform the sowing event was provided by Moroccan stakeholders, partners of the project. 1. The time window for sowing starts in October. 2. Tillage is performed at least a number of days after a precipitation event. 3. After tillage, when the amount of rainfall is larger than a percentage of cumulated potential evapotranspiration, then conditions are favorable sowing. 4. Starting from this date, when soil water content in the first 10 cm is below a threshold, farmers usually sow wheat Start Tillage Climate Soil water Input - Day of the year Input - Precipitation Parameters - Threshold prec. - Number of days Input - Precipitation - ETP Parameters - ETP % Input - Soil water content - Layer thickness Parameters - Percentage of FC

12 Wheat sowing date in Morocco (2) Extension o The implementation of the new rule is an extension of the AgroManagement component o Technology transfer to project partners, who developed the rule Test o 10 years of weather Unit tests to check the sowing variability Application o Dynamic crop/soil water simulation

13 Agro-chemical spray The AgroManagement component can be used to trigger a fungicide application, which can be driven by different rules, based on system data e.g.: A fixed date (calendar based application) Crop phenological development (application at a given phenological stage) Simulation models (application when infection efficiency is above a threshold) Each active principle can be characterized by specific parameters, which are the parameters of the impact object

14 Disease severity Infection efficiency Agro-chemical spray (2) Blast disease on rice, application of tryciclazole = no chemical event = 1 application at flowering = model application (Inf. eff. > 0.5) time 0 The same impact can be listened by a pesticide fate model component, which reacts by computing the concentration of the active principle in the soil profile.

15 Conclusions AgroManagement components are available as.net dynamic link libraries implemented according to the BioMA modelling framework. A set of software tools are available for use of the AgroManagement components in different platforms. Rules and Impacts can be extended autonomously by third parties. By decoupling rules and impact models it is possible to trigger impact models in different components. AgroManagemnt plans provide a way to formalize simulation plans indipendent of a specific modelling approach. marcello.donatelli@crea.gov.it 15

16 Thank you 16