Nation-wide interdisciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security

Transcription

1 Nation-wide interdisciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security Mariko Fujisawa, M. Cumani, H. Sasaki, and H. Kanamaru Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 28 June, 2016 Montpellier, France

2 Objectives Improve food security under climate change Strengthen linkage between research and decision making --- evidence-based climate change adaptation

3 Evidence-based climate change adaptation Any climate change adaptation programme/project should be supported by robust evidences. Evidence about: Past climate, and its impacts on local agriculture Future projected climate and its impacts on local agriculture Characterizationof vulnerability to climate change and other factors (social, environmental, etc) Current GHG emissions Identification and appraisalof potentialadaptation practices, including cost-benefit, mitigation benefits Effectiveness of adaptation interventions (monitoring and evaluation)

4 Objectives Improve food security under climate change Strengthen linkage between research and decision making --- evidence-based climate change adaptation Capacity gap in developing countries Information gap: assessment at national level with sub-national disaggregation, medium- to long-term CC

5 Focus on National Level Link with policy processes such as National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Climate-Smart Agriculture, Agricultural Investment Programme, etc Philippines, Peru, Morocco, Malawi, Zambia, Indonesia, Paraguay, and more

6 Inter-disciplinary approach The challenge of climate change and food security cuts across disciplines Many sub-sectors Biophysical, social and economic MOSAICC integrated modelling system Climate downscaling, crops, forest, river water, national economy 2.8 Information Technologies and Data (tomorrow afternoon)

7 Capacity Development By national scientists With country s own data For country's information needs, to inform country s programmes and projects Individual capacities --- groups of local experts Extensive training programs Supported by international scientists (model developers), FAO technical officers Institutional capacities --- stakeholder engagement, interdisciplinary team

8 Stakeholders Engagement Project steering committee provides overall guidance, linkage with policy processes Simulation, analysis, interpretation, visualization and communication of the results, guided by interdisciplinary technical working group Data sharing protocol (among institutions in the working group)

9 Project Steering Committee Chaired by Ministry of Agriculture With: Ministry of Env, National Weather Service, etc National Project Manager (consultant) National Project Coordinator (assigned by main counterpart ministry) Technical working group for CC assessments Other project components Climatologists Crop Scientists Leader of TWG Economists Hydrologists Foresters Data Providers Trainers (international scientists) FAO technical officers

10 Changes in discharge by season and agreement among 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios vs Which regions are more affected by river flow changes, and irrigation potential?

11 Rainfed rice yield change vs Which regions are more affected than other regions by crop productivity changes? à What are the priorities for adaptation interventions, resource allocation, and investments?

12 Peru corn yield projection Which crops are more vulnerable and where? à What are optimal crop mix?

13 Conclusions Adaptation projects and programmes should be based on evidences Policy makers and project formulators are looking for information to underpin policies and project objectives Climate change assessments is not a one-time exercise --- need to periodically revise climate change information reflecting new scientific findings and evidence. Stakeholder engagement takes time but essential for more sustainable individual/institutional capacities of countries for producing information that is needed and used More work necessary: adaptation options appraisal at project local level --- opportunity for collaboration?

14 Info: Thank you Partners Mauro Evangelisti Servizi Informatici Numerical Ecology of Aquatic Systems AgroMetShell FAO-MOSAICC is developed in the framework of the EU/FAO Programme on Improved Global Governance for Hunger Reduction