The role of livestock in adapting to climate change and building economic resilience in Zambia

Transcription

1 1 The role of livestock in adapting to climate change and building economic resilience in Zambia Félix Teillard, Anne Mottet, Federica Alfani

2 Variabilty (CV) Context Livestock need to increase production in the context of climate change 2 COP23 decision on agriculture includes a reference to improved livestock management systems In Zambia, livestock can be a tool for adaptation but subsidies maintain the sector below its potential and sometimes lead to bad management practices Livestock production Biomass production

3 3 Can livestock and crop-livestock integration increase economic resilience at household level?

4 Approach biophysical component 4 Satellite data on Dry Matter Productivity (DMP) of vegetation SPOT-VGT and PROBA-V satellites, Global Land Copernicus Service (ESA) data Decadal time series 1999-present Difference to 10-year average at ward level

5 ~8000 households Approach household data 5 The Zambian Rural Agricultural Livelihood Survey Socio-economic data at household-level Linked with biophysical data at ward administrative level panel data

6 Mean gross income Mean gross income Results crop vs. livestock farms 6 Farms with livestock tend to have a higher gross income show a lower income difference in wards with good vs. bad climate (DMP) conditions Good DMP Bad DMP Good DMP Bad DMP Farms without livestock Farms with livestock Farms without livestock Farms with livestock

7 income difference Results crop vs. livestock farms (panel) Farms with livestock suffered lower or no income reduction where conditions were bad in Without livestock With livestock Bad 2011 Bad 2011 Good 2011 Good 2014 Bad 2014 Bad 2014

8 Results crop-livestock integration 8 Principal component analysis on quantitative & qualitative variables Correlation between variables reflecting farm size, good practices and crop-livestock integration Chickens (%) Goats (%) Pigs (%) Gross income HH size Manure as fert. Milk prod. Livestock income (%) TLU tot. Veterinary practices Legumes Crop res. grazed Cattle (%) Cluster analysis splitting farms in 3 groups Crop income (%) Crop res. collected for livestock

9 income difference Results crop-livestock integration 9 Livestock (ruminants) seem to have a stronger effect on economic resilience than crop-livestock integration Crop-livestock integration combined with good practices and larger farm size reaches the highest resilience levels Small farms Goat/chicken dominated Low integration Medium farms Pigs (crops) dominated Medium integration Larger farms Cattle dominated High integration Good practices

10 Conclusions 10 Preliminary results show that livestock has the potential to increase the economic resilience of households to climate change Crop-livestock integration (use of manure and crop residues) and good livestock management practices (animal health, milk productivity, legumes) are currently associated with larger farms but can further increase resilience Need for better data on livestock and integration in national surveys (current limitation to the robustness of results) Practices increasing resilience are proven to provide co benefits for productivity and mitigation Need for initial investment, capacity building and extension

11 11 Thank you