REPORT TO THE REGION UPDATE 2016: REGIONAL GROWTH PRESSURES

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1 REPORT TO THE REGION UPDATE 2016: REGIONAL GROWTH PRESSURES BACKGROUND: In 2003, Cumberland Region Tomorrow commissioned nationally renowned planning expert, John Fregonese, to conduct a regional visioning project, entitled Report to the Region, that examined growth trends in Middle Tennessee. It was a ground-breaking report that analyzed regional growth for the first time and offered conclusions and likely implications of various growth scenarios as they might play out through The Fregonese study led many in the region to begin thinking about regional planning and cooperation. In 2006, CRT published its Quality Growth Toolbox, a comprehensive resource for regional growth and development challenges, with specific tools and strategies to address those challenges. Utilizing the Toolbox, almost all the Middle Tennessee region counties now have adopted comprehensive land use plans. CRT commissioned Fregonese to revisit the ten-county region, looking at 2015 data from ten counties to see how well the region has managed to guide its growth. In June 2016, Fregonese presented his data, which can be found in entirety through this link: Groups of nearly 100 regional leaders, including planning and economic development professionals, architects, engineers, farmers, government officials, conservationists, and CRT board members reviewed the information and provided valuable feedback, data and insights. This is a summary of the key findings and the discussions around them.

2 GROWTH: We re already bigger than many realize, and headed for 3 million people. Population grew faster than projected in the 2003 study. At the current growth rate, the region will have 3 million people by population projections were reached in 2014, six years early Population Year Actual Original Forecast Latest Forecast Our population is on par with Austin in 2014 and is headed toward Denver s by ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,000 Denver Region 2,650,000 Charlotte Region 2,300,000 Austin Region 1,835, ,450, ,700, ,825,000 Raleigh Region 1,190, ,600, County Cumberland Region (2014 ACS, 5 year estimate) Comparison Regions (2014 ACS, 5 year estimate)

3 DENSITY: We need more of it, not just in Nashville. It s not a dirty word. The 2003 Fregonese Study recommended to preserve land by increasing density to 5.7 persons per acre from the 03 trend of 1.7 persons per acre. We ve increased density, reaching 2.7 persons per acre by 2015, but are short of the goal. Peer cities have managed to increase density to a greater degree. Density has increased in the region But remains less than many of our peers 6,000 Popula'on per Square Mile 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 St. Louis Portland Denver Atlanta Aus<n Raleigh Nashville CharloBe Indianapolis Memphis

4 Nationally, 40% of the demand is for compact, walkable development. Yet compact development has not been embraced region wide. For some, the terms density and compact development carry negative connotations. Yet compact development can help solve many growth-driven land use concerns such as the cost of infrastructure and the preservation of open land. Market awareness and proper messaging about quality compact development is key. Land values are increasing in the counties with more urbanization, which in turn drives more compact development. More rural counties haven t seen land values rise as quickly and continue to see scattered, less planned development. Some still have acre lot minimums. These are the same counties where the loss of farmland will pose a strain on their economy. Strategic questions: What is the best way to accelerate and incentivize compact development in towns and centers in every county in the region? How can new schools in the region be built in a more cost effective way? What strategies are needed to better align land use and existing transportation plans along with community/economic development efforts? How might we convince more people in the region to embrace more density in the appropriate areas?

5 LAND USE: Farming is disappearing from the region and we still are consuming open land at an alarming rate. Many large tracts of land are no longer used for farming. The weakened infrastructure for farming threatens agriculture in the region. 260,000 acres of farmland went out of production since ,000 acres Farmland no longer in produc0on We improved our rate of land consumption since the 03 report, but still consumed a lot of land ,000 acres since That is 32% more than was recommended in the alternative case suggested in the 03 Report to the Region. More than half of the newly developed land came from farm and forestland. 120,000 acres developed since ,000 acres developed were farm and forest land twice the size of Murfreesboro Murfreesboro 25,000 acres Much of the land classified as agricultural is comprised of large tracts used only for hunting and recreation. The farm economy has evolved into two principal sectors, large high-production farms or small craft farms. Farming depends on an infrastructure of market access, raw material and equipment availability, maintenance support and access to other farmers. Much of that infrastructure is gone.

6 Strategic questions: What are the best strategies to ensure that farming both large production and small craft farming and farmland remain a significant part of the regional economy and environment? What is the economic impact if the agriculture economy can t be sustained? Can a regional inventory of open space and re-development opportunities be created and prioritized? What new funding streams and incentives can be created to support protecting farms and land? What role can leasing open space and farms for public access play in wildlife preservation and economic opportunity?

7 INFRASTRUCTURE: We ve underinvested by billions in the past few years, and now face accommodating current population as we prepare for our next million people. Photo by George Walker IV/The Tennessean We ve spent billions in infrastructure improvements Since 2002, we have spent more than $9 billion in infrastructure in the 10 county Cumberland Region Category $3,005,268,277 $2,294,451,733 $2,189,444,729 $686,796,328 $782,884,261 $430,943,265 Transporta6on Health, Safety and U6li6es and Welfare Educa6on Recrea6on and Economic General Culture Development Government

8 But using Fregonese s per developed acre formula, we ve under-invested in transportation alone by $ billion by By next year, we are likely to be $3 billion behind in addressing CURRENT transportation needs, before beginning to address the future ones. The outlook: in the next few decades, most all roads will be congested. Key Indicator points to under investment 2040 Land Developed Acres Transporta2on Costs )Roads Only) 2003 Base Case 2003 Alterna8ve Actual 205,000 $6.9 billion 91,000 $3.4 billion 120,000 $2.5 billion Tennessee s current tax structure and tax culture makes it difficult to fund growth, even the most efficient kind of growth. Strategic questions: What is the best way for the region to fund its infrastructure needs? How can we accelerate funding for transportation, open space, water, solid waste systems based on the most efficient models?

9 CULTURE CLASH: The region is in a state of rapid transition, leading to a clash of cultures. The Fregonese study and the two days of focus group discussions following it made clear that each county in the region has very different and sometimes conflicting lifestyle preferences. While their one shared reality is the acceleration of growth in the region, these diverse groups approach the concerns of this growth from very different perspectives. They include, but are not limited to: Country vs. City: A clash between a predominantly rural culture that values large, single ownership lots and small farms coupled with minimal land use regulations vs. a more urban culture that values convenience, smaller living spaces requiring less upkeep and maintenance, and regulation that facilitates living in closer proximity to each other. City vs. Suburban: A clash between a younger generation that likes the tall skinnies, values walkability and proximity to public transportation and an older generation for whom one-acre lots and a car environment is are the norm. Developers vs. Neighbors: A clash between developers, who build the living units of the future and take associated risks, and those who see them only as greedy profiteers who should bear all the costs of development. Farming vs. Land Investing: A clash within the agricultural community tension between the desire to preserve farm land and the desire to preserve property rights, which would include being able to develop or sell the land for development. In a profession historically asset-rich and cash-strapped, this is a growing tension, particularly as land values increase and farming infrastructure is threatened. Strategic questions: How can regional leaders help ease the culture clash and make sure that residents deeply understand each other s needs and lifestyles? Can the region speak with one voice on key policy issues to their local leaders, to their representatives in the State legislature, to State government officials? What kind of land use education and training do local elected officials such as county commissioners, members of city legislative bodies, voters and tax payers want and need? How can we structure a long-term campaign that customizes the needs of each county AND simultaneously elevates the regional consensus around growth and development?

10 CONCLUSION: The region is on an economic and population growth trajectory that many are both proud of and worried about. Cumberland Region Tomorrow s intends to give a voice to the whole ten-county region and identify best practices for ensuring its ongoing prosperity, unique natural character and affordability. The two days of focus group sessions produced agreement around a holistic strategy that has benefits for all: County-wide and city-wide growth planning and regulation that minimize governmental costs and maximize return on the investment of public funds.. Coordination of land use plans among counties and collaboration among planners across the region Incorporation of more compact development in local government planning, to accommodate a growing market for smaller living spaces, smaller lots, walkability and proximity to necessities and conveniences and the developers who seek to provide this option. We live in a rapidly urbanizing region, and our culture in many ways has not caught up to that reality. We believe the culture and perspectives of the region can evolve without compromising the values of the people who live here or compromising our uniqueness. Our region can evolve into a model for the country in the use of reasonable regulations that enable quality living in close proximity while respecting property rights and individual freedoms. CRT s Next Goals: CRT aims to objectively measure and understand the values of people in each county as they relate to the region s attributes they hold most dear. This understanding will help guide all planning, enabling all to preserve those attributes as we shape the landscape to accommodate our growing population. We will help sustain the contributions of farms, forests and open lands to our region s economy. We plan to engage citizens across the region to be more aware and ready for growth by implementing several key communication and collaboration initiatives. We will advocate for and reward quality planning through the development of a quality planning report card. We ll help facilitate true regional collaboration on how we utilize our diverse assets and plan for growth throughout the region. The POWER of TEN Regional Summit will continue to serve as one of our platforms for doing so.