Climate Adaptation Measures for the Irrigated and Rainfed Agriculture Sector

Transcription

1 Climate Adaptation Measures for the Irrigated and Rainfed Agriculture Sector Prof. Ordan Cukaliev, Ph.D., Prof. Vjekoslav Tamaskovik Faculty for Agricultural Sciences and Food-Skopje Skopje, May 2010

2 Basics on climate Key Climatic Indicators at Major Meteorological Stations River Basin Station Rainfall Temp. Wind Sunshin Cloudiness Humidity (mm/year) ( C) (m/sec) (hours/day) (0-10) Vardar Gevgelija Treska Sol.Glava Pchinja K.Palanka Bregalnica Shtip Crna Prilep Crn Drim Ohrid Strumica Strumica Note: Rainfall is based on annual total, and other parameters on annual average, except sunshine, which is presented by hours/day. source: The study on Integrated water resources development and management master plan (final report - volume II, May 1999)

3 Average temperatures

4 Precipitation

5 Agriculture Land Use Distribution Land use distribution Area in ha. Total land % Total land 2,543, Productive land 2,312, Forest land 1,021, Agriculture land 1,291, Pastures 633, Arable land 657, Ploughed lands and gardens 554, Orchards 19, Vineyards 29, Natural meadows 54, Unproductive land 230,

6 Agriculture Land Use Land use (ha) (ha) Arable crop land 612, ,297 Irrigated 60,153 31,755 Rainfed 550, ,500 Pasture 630, ,263 Forest and woodland 997, ,128 Other land 331, ,349

7 Agroecological Indices.

8 Agroecological Indices.

9 Agroecological Indices.

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12 What does it means for crop production?. New environment for production Higher temperature Increased evapotranspiration Increased water deficit, bigger prolonged drought, higher CO2 concentration, higher temperature sum, prolonged growing season New pests and diseases

13 Vulnerability assessment To assess vulnerability: limiting factor for crop production should be determined (factor in minimum water in our case) Vulnerable areas are almost all agriculture areas Most vulnerable area is central part of Vardar River Valley with conjunctions with Crna River and Bregalnica Most vulnerable crops are crops predominant in this area (grape, winter wheat) and crops with highest water demand (alfalfa, vegetable, fruits) in other areas

14 Vulnerable areas. Most Vlnerable area is: Central Vardar Valley with Kavadarci as representative Very Vulnerable Areas: South East Part (Strumica) Southern Vardar Valley (Gevgelija) Skopje Kumanovo Region Ovce Pole Region

15 Vulnerability assessment. Final assessment of vulnerability for each of crop defined as vulnerable crop is based on FAO Crop Yield Response to Water Deficit methodology. Ya ETa ( 1 ) ky( 1 ) Y ET m m

16 Most Vulnerable Crops. Kavadarci Grape Strumica and Gevgelija Tomato and Pepper Skopje-Kumanovo Winter wheat Ovche Pole Winter wheat and Alfalfa

17 Yield decreasing. If not adaptation will be applied yield will decrease as follow Crop Kavadarci Grape 46% 50% 55% 59% Strumica Tomato 72% 75% 79% 82% Stip Alfalfa 14% 17% 21% 25% Skopje Winter Wheat 8% 12% 16% 21%

18 Adaptation Agricultural sector has huge experience in fight with climate variability and natural disasters (drought, flood etc). Due to this huge expertise is accumulated in expert knowledge, but also in local agricultural practices

19 Adaptation measures Adaptation measures should be divided in 5 groups: 1. Genetic measures (new more drought tolerant/high yielding crops and varieties). 2. Land reclamation measures (to increase soil water holding capacity manure, organic matter increase, some polymers) 3. Agricultural practices (soil and water conservation soil cultivation reduced tillage, water harvesting, mulching etc.) 4. Irrigation building of new irrigation schemes/increasing of efficiency 5. Knowledge, awareness, education, know how

20 Adaptation in irrigated agriculture Irrigated agriculture in the country is in permanent decreasing, due to various reason From more than ha irrigated in late 80 s now we irrigate about ha, even though several big projects of rehabilitation were conducted Irrigated agriculture can benefit from climate change due to elimination of the limiting factor

21 Adaptation in irrigated agriculture Best adaptation strategy for irrigated areas will be spreading of water saving techniques in irrigated agriculture in order to maintain same or even bigger irrigated areas with same water amount. Best available practice will be increased irrigation efficiency trough micro irrigation (90% of WUE) in comparison with less than 50% in furrow irrigation and about 70% in sprinkler irrigation)

22 Adaptation Measures for Irrigated Areas Spreading of Water Saving Techniques (Microirrigation) Rehabilitation of existing Irrigation Schemes Defining of real price of irrigation water Finishing of structural reforms in irrigation sector Changes/improvement of existing legislation Education of agricultural producers/farmers in modern irrigation Increasing public awareness for changes of irrigation practice

23 SOME FACTS

24 Water consumption Comparasion of water consumption in 3 main sectors in XX century 4000 km Agriculture Industry Communities Year FAO, 1993

25 The major user of water in the world (from previous figure) is agricultural sector (3300 km 3 water consumption), but Almost 50 % from agricultural water is used inappropriate by the farmers (1650 km 3 water), especially in developing countries. (FAO, 2000) The proper irrigation management (good practice of irrigation, proper irrigation technique, etc.) can obtain not only high yields per crops per hectare, but also more efficient use of water in agriculture, so more water will be delivered for other sectors, especially for water supply of households and industry.

26 SOME PICTURES

27 Basin irrigation Furrow irrigation SURFACE IRRIGATION Border irrigation

28 SPRINKLER IRRIGATION

29 MICROIRRIGATION

30 V=4 ml/s V=8 ml/s

31 V=4 ml/s V=8 ml/s

32 V=4 ml/s V=8 ml/s

33 V=4 ml/s V=8 ml/s runoff

34 Adaptation Measures in Rainfeed Agriculture Plant Breading breading of drought/heath tolerant varieties Introduction of new drought/heath tolerant crops Land Reclamation Measures Increasing of soil water holding capacity Changes in agricultural Practice (water and soil conservation, reduced tillage, Mulching, etc.) Farmers education in agricultural practices Increasing public awareness Building of new irrigation schemes

35 PRESENT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES There is two major directions: 1. Strategy according the James Orchard Halliwell-Phillipps, first published around 1843 in Nursery Rhymes and Nursery Tales, adapted by Disney Studios (Three Little Pigs): Singing Who s afraid of the Big Bad Wolf (CC)

36 PRESENT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES There is two major directions: 2. Strategy according Jean de La Fontaine (Published in XVII century in The Ant and The Cricket fable) playing our violin and waiting some ant will help us when it will be to late.

37 PRESENT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TWO NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS TO UNFCC TWO ACTION PLANS NONE RESULTS

38 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What are the climate change implications for water supply and demand, especially concerning irrigation? A: Increasing of temperature increase evapotranspiration, combined with decreasing of rainfalls in growing period rapidly increase water deficit and irrigation water requirement. For example

39 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What can be done to improve the management of water resources to enhance climate resilience? A: In Irrigation sector rehabilitation of irrigation schemes was done, structural reforms were done, why somebody didn t try to approach agricultural producers with their real needs?

40 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What measures have/should be implemented to enhance water use efficiency at the supply/distribution scale and at the farm scale? A: Pipe networks/education-training/know how/capacity building/awarenes raising

41 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What practices could the average crop/livestock farm implement immediately that would improve climate resilience and productivity? A: All of the proposed, increasing irrigation efficiency, Soil and Water Conservation Practices..

42 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: Are current coping strategies suitable to address future climate change projections? If not, what other adaptation options will be required? A: No. Let discuss!

43 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What are the barriers to adoption for existing/future adaptation strategies? A: See NCSA Low level of awareness, know how etc. on personal,institutional and systemlevel

44 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What are the critical adaptation investments required for the cropping and livestock sectors going forward? A: Lets find out with mutual efforts!

45 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What are the policy challenges that limit the ability to adapt to projected climate change? A: Awarenes

46 Brief Answers on the Key Questions Q: What weather information is freely available and easily accessible for farmers? A: None (despite these from media)

47 THANK YOU