CONCEPT PAPER ADAPTIVE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN JORDAN

Transcription

1 CONCEPT PAPER ADAPTIVE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN JORDAN 1. Introduction 1.1. Project design activities The inception phase was initiated to design the stakeholder planning process, identify key stakeholders and include plans for further study, consultation, coordination and demonstration. The following key bullet points were emphasized and delivered during the first phase of implementation: - Three workshops at national level were conducted as part of the consultation process among different stakeholders. This has led to recognition for the need for a more integration between the governance of DRR and CCA. - Institutional analysis report. - A participatory planning process through initial visioning and problem analysis has contributed to the engagement and ownership of all relevant stakeholders at in the development of a project strategy and plan. - An inventory and synthesis study of already implemented technical studies has provided a basis for further participatory planning, and further analysis of needed actions. - The above consultation processes have resulted in the identification of 1 pilot area for further detailed planning and stakeholder dialogue. - A concerted process has led to the establishment of an institutional structure for the implementation of this project. - These activities have resulted in a more detailed project document (including a refined problem statement and the identification of potential solutions) for implementing a 3

2 year project, while key stakeholders and partners for the implementation of the project have been identified. 2. National Context: Climate Change in Jordan: Climate change poses a double threat to Jordan and its population. Firstly, increases are expected in the frequency and intensity of weather and climatic hazards such as floods, flash floods, heat and cold waves as well as droughts. Secondly, other changes such as ecosystem degradation, reduced availability of water, food and possible impacts on livelihood, are expected, which in turn could alter the underlying vulnerability of populations to hazards. The projection for climate change forecasts an increase of 2 C by the year Warming will be found to be stronger during the summer while less warming during the winter. Climate change might magnify the existing challenge in terms of water scarcity. Jordan is already the fourth most water scarce country in the world with 145m3 per year per capita. The Second National Communication report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -outlines the vulnerability of different sectors as follows: Agriculture: Climate change could impact significantly on the rainfed agriculture practices and on livestock. The reduction of rainfall will have a negative impact on grain yield by 20%. Climate change projections foresees a sharp diminution of water availability for irrigation in the Jordan Valley whilst farmers on the northern high plains will face more frequent and intense floods that might destroy their culture and affect their food security. Water resources are expected to decrease significantly as a result of the lower precipitation with expected changes in spatial and temporal distribution. Jordan already faces a harsh natural environment with limited surface water and heavy demand on groundwater and limited desalinization capacity. Public health: It is predicted that that there will be an increase in physiological disorders, skin rashes and dehydration, eye cataracts, deaths and injuries due to heat wave. Incidents of diseases transmitted by water might increase. The existing climate variability and the forecasted climate change impacts have the potential for increased disaster risk. Hydro-meteorological events or extreme weather (or extreme climate event) such as drought, flash floods, floods, snow/dust storms and cold/heat waves results in greater human vulnerability. Recent UNISDR-Jordan Civil Defense research highlights that, over the past 30 years ( ), the population that is most affected by natural

3 hazards are farmers due to repeated droughts (cumulative extreme weather event) and unpredictable rainfall. 86% of the recorded damages that occurred to houses were due to climatic related risks (snowstorms, floods & flash floods and hailstones). Projection shows that climate change could exacerbate many of these hazards in increasing frequency and magnitude. Climate change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty Reduction: Limited Institutional Coordination to deal with both fields: Jordan institutional approach is fragmented as the primary responsibility for Climate Change Adaptation lies with the Ministry of Environment (dealing with the UNFCCC) while Disaster Risk Reduction lies primarily with Civil Defense (Hyogo Framework for Action). These two governmental institutions manage parallel structures of coordination (the Inter-ministerial or National Committee for Climate Change and the higher council for civil defense), different national budgets, different strategies and different sources of external funding (UNFCCCC, Global Environment Fund (GEF), and Global Fund for Disaster Risk Reduction, bilateral donors). Justification for more integration between CCA and DRR: First, DRR and CCA overlap a great deal through the common factor of weather and climate and the similar tools used to monitor, analyze and address adverse consequences. Secondly, risk reduction is a common converging goal for CCA and DRR. Both CCA and DRR have an objective of reducing factors that contribute to climate related risk. Both approaches envisage pro active anticipatory actions to reduce climate risk of different time scales. The notion of possible emergence of historically not experienced climate risks due to climate change could entail disaster risk management to deal with uncertainty and new pattern of risks. Third, DRR and CCA share a common feature. They are not sectors in themselves but must be implemented through the policies of other sectors, in particular, those of agriculture, water resources, health, land use, environment, finance and planning. There are also linkages with other policies, most notably poverty reduction. Climate change and disaster are expected to have a more adverse impact on the population of Jordan that is already vulnerable due to poverty. Fourth, linking DRR and CCA can learn from each other in term of knowledge, tools and practice. The long historical experience in implementing DRR can contribute greatly to adaptation, in terms of policy and institutional approaches as well as technical methods and tools. These include the Hyogo Framework for Action, legislation development, multi stakeholder national platforms, technical networks, and approaches to community capacity building, along with hazard and vulnerability assessment, land use planning and

4 environmental protection, construction of dams, dykes and seawalls, early warning systems, and community education and resilience programs. Equally, many of the approaches being developed for CCA, such as vulnerability assessments, sectoral and national planning, capacity building and response strategies, are directly supportive of DRR. Theoretically and on practice in, CCA is an integral component of DRR, sine both Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management are two components of Disaster Risk Management, as described in the below figure. Climate change, disaster risk and human vulnerability: According to the UNFCCC climate change adaptation is a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change effects. Vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of external shocks, trends and cycles that frame the environment in which people live. The origin of such events can be political, social, environmental or economic. In the case of Jordan, the successive multi-year drought and extreme weather phenomenon such as floods increased their level of poverty. Some of these adopted short-term coping strategies that may leave them worse off in the longer-term. For example many families moved to the cities although the prospects of getting jobs were limited. Recent figures for levels of poverty shows the urgency to ensure the link with vulnerability as the national absolute poverty rate is 13.3% (2008). UNDP and the Department of Statistics recently mapped the poverty pockets existing in the country. Regional disparities exist between urban and rural areas and between the North, Centre and South. Increasing challenges such as global warming will have different impact one each of these groups. The Government of Jordan

5 listed poverty eradication is a key national priority and is a key component of the newly Developed National Executive Programme, Problem statement: The main problem in this situation is the lack of coordination between different stakeholders. Disaster risk management is founded on the ideology of cooperative participatory relationships between all related parties. An absence of this coordination will cost the situation precious time towards its management and further prevention of worse consequences. This will therefore cause great conflicts between all managing partners and stakeholders, further affecting the optimum management of the situation. The root problem lies in the absence of awareness and official support. Awareness difficiency towards important coordination between different Stakeholders causes unclear definitions towards their tasks and roles. In short, the lacking cooperation, awareness and official support only worsens the situation and creates a lower push towards its scientific and prevention research. 4. Methodology: Vulnerability to natural disasters continues to increase, severely compromising the achievement of poverty alleviation goals in many developing countries. A more effective approach is needed

6 to reduce the impacts of these disasters. This project proposal will test and

7 demonstrate an approach that integrates ecosystem management, development planning and adaptive risk reduction strategies to reduce disaster impacts and improve both livelihoods and environmental outcomes. Ecosystem management can contribute to more effective reduction of disaster risk in two major ways. Well-managed ecosystems can mitigate the impact of most natural hazards, such as landslides, hurricanes and cyclones. In addition, productive ecosystems can support sustainable income-generating activities and are important assets for people and communities in the aftermath of a disaster. For ecosystems to make these contributions, it is essential that they be factored into relief and rebuilding efforts in the post-disaster response phase. Not taking care of critical ecosystems after a major disaster can cause significant economic and environmental losses, and impose hardships on already vulnerable communities The Ecosystem Approach can make a valuable contribution to managing disaster risk and mitigating the impacts of disasters. An ecosystem approach to disaster risk reduction is one where ecosystems make a key contribution to enhancing people s livelihoods. The Ecosystem Approach is an effective strategy to manage or restore ecosystems and their services while focusing on human livelihood needs. More effective and comprehensive disaster risk reduction strategies are needed that decrease people s vulnerability to the impacts of natural disasters. A comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction should include several components: - Integrating risk reduction into ecosystem management and development planning; - Post-disaster strategies that focus on community livelihood recovery while minimizing damage to the ecosystems that are essential for livelihood security; - An emphasis on ecosystems as natural barriers; - Community preparedness. Integrating disaster risk reduction can occur only if people and organizations in various sectors make a collaborative effort. What is needed is an integrated effort by emergency, humanitarian and environmental agencies. This project proposal will test and demonstrate a practical integrated approach to better manage disaster risk and reduce the impact of disasters on people s livelihoods. There are five reasons to integrate ecosystem-based management in disaster risk reduction and development planning: 1. It can decrease vulnerability to natural disasters. 2. Natural disasters have a high cost. 3. It costs less to prevent disasters than it does to fix the damage they cause. 4. At-risk populations depend on ecosystems for their livelihoods. 5. Natural disasters and the responses to them have a negative impact on biodiversity.

8 Operational Methodology: Using a systemic framework within the project: This project will build on the Project Cycle Management. It will use it as guiding methodological framework for local DRR planning and will add to them a climate change adaptation dimension by further strengthening incorporation of climate change scenario and risks, uncertainty treatment and adaptive management. The objective is to develop an even more robust, dynamic and climate-proof approach to DRR. This approach will deliver practical outputs in the form of integrated ecosystem development strategies, plans and activities, and improved communication and decisionmaking. The below figure provides an overview of the project s intervention methodology which will be articulated around two main pillars: (i) Stakeholder Dialogue and Concerted Action (SDCA) and (ii) Participatory Planning Cycle (PPC). The SDCA will involve key local players into stakeholder platforms established at different institutional levels (local to national) and aiming to facilitate communication, win-win dialogue and joint problem resolution. The PPC process will consist in a 6-step continuous cycle of visioning, assessing, strategizing, planning, implementing and reflecting on DRR/CCA decisions and operations. This approach will clearly promote long-term development visions and

9 strategies for DRR/CCA, based on narrative scenario building, by introducing a more effective and virtuous governance regime and by providing local stakeholders with a mechanism that will allow for systematic and continuous review and treatment of risks factors (climate and non climate) in planning and operations. 5. Project Description 5.1. Long term goal and purpose Project long term goal: To increase the resilience of communities in XXX Governorate/District to disasters, climate change and environmental degradation. Project Purpose: to test and demonstrate a participatory approach for planning, development and management of the disasters at the intermediate and local level by promoting increased participation and representation of stakeholders mainly end-users in planning and decision making processes. Objectives: - To establish an institutional environment to integrate DRR, CCA and Ecosystem based approaches. - To increase the capacity of civil society organizations to apply DDR, CCA and Ecosystem management measures. - To enhance livelihood security and strengthen communities resilience by implementing community driven DRR/CCA/EM projects. - To document the learning processes and inform policies 5.2. Expected results Successful project implementation is expected to lead to the following results. 1. Enhanced stakeholders understanding and consensus on the importance of integration of DRR and CCA, problems and strategies, thanks to more structured participatory assessment and analysis tools in order to merge social dimension and technical dimension in decision making (through applying system tools, and participatory planning and stakeholder approach) 2. A general methodology for disaster risk reduction planning endorsed by key stakeholders in Jordan, as a result of the development of practical approaches for DRM planning and decision making.

10 3. A comprehensive Adaptive Disaster Reduction Strategy that clearly identifies the essential organizational and procedural parts for effective mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. The strategy is widely accepted by all relevant stakeholders and contributes to livelihoods improvements and economic development. 4. A number of pilot projects implemented (to test the planning and management tools used, in addition to that testing the technical interventions that can be up-scaled in future.) 5. An effective organizational structure and operational tools for the implementation of the adaptive disaster reduction strategy developed and tested. 6. All relevant stakeholders (GOs, NGOs, academia, private sector, CBOs and end-users) empowered in CBDRM, ecosystem based disaster risk reduction, and enabled to implement the strategy and undertake similar activities in the governorate and country levels Project Components, activities and outputs: Component Outputs Component 1: Stakeholder Consultation, planning and training workshops consultation and participatory Increased ownership and accountability of different SHs for the Adaptive Disaster Reduction Plan. planning and project coordination Component 2: resource Studies: natural Solid and shared information basis for assessment, a) meteorological and climate data; environmental and socio-economic b) Developing pilot projects; impact assessments, economic analysis, etc c) A long-term Adaptive Disaster Reduction Plan; d) An environmental impact assessment and socio-economic analysis of the plan. Component 3: Development and Proposals for strengthening synergies endorsed by the endorsement of Adaptive Disaster relevant key stakeholders Reduction plan, supported by Adoption of system tool to define and evaluate the plan; system tools as a methodology for Methodology developed and proposed to GOs for replication replication. elsewhere, supported by more quantitative modeling system analysis tools Component 4: Development and Solutions tested to strengthen synergies between CCA and implementation of different pilot DRR; projects. Solutions tested to strengthen synergies between CCA and DRR; Lesson learned derived and shared. Component 5: Empowerment of Capacities built in Government agencies, private sector and local communities, private sector, NGOs to use the above methodology and the necessary

11 NGOs and government agencies. participatory planning approaches Component 6: Documenting the M&E system developed and in use learning process and sharing Lesson learned derived and shared information and knowledge at Relevant manuals and publication developed different levels. 6. Partners, Stakeholders and Implementation Modality The project will be implemented by the Civil Defense and specifically by the Disaster Management Department. The project will be strongly supported by UNDP Jordan in cooperation with national and international partners and research institutions. The technical support of UNDP to the Civil Defense will be formalized under a special technical cooperation agreement between the CD and UNDP. Civil Defense will hold the prime responsibility for the delivery of expected results and outputs outlined in this document. All publications produced under this project will include an acknowledgement and relevant logos of the Civil Defense, UNDP, partners and donors. The project will operate under the policy and technical guidance of a Advisory Committee composed of representatives of Ministries of Environment, Water, Agriculture and other key stakeholders identified in the inception phase (including representatives of relevant Departments in the targeted governorate). The purpose of this advisory committee is to ensure that outcomes of this project are known to and dovetail with the initiatives for other strategic change agents in Jordan. Further, the makeup of the advisory committee will provide the project with technical assistance and advice and influence on the workings that exist or are being developed. 7. Monitoring and Evaluation: Monitoring and evaluation of the project will be done at two levels. Project purpose and expected results will be assessed at the end of the project by objectively verifiable indicators and by bench

12 mark indicators to monitor progress at regular 6-months intervals. They will be

13 developed in the first months of the project in consultation with the CD and key stakeholders. Satisfactory delivery of activities will be assessed against the outputs of project components specified above. 8. Estimated Budget The Project will commence in June 2013 and is expected to be completed in May 2016, with a total earmarked budget of 2 million US Dollars approx.