VENTURA COMMODITIES PVT.LTD. STATUS OF AREA, CROP CONDITION AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR SOYBEAN KHARIF 2007 (IInd Estimate)

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1 VENTURA COMMODITIES PVT.LTD. STATUS OF AREA, CROP CONDITION AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR SOYBEAN KHARIF 2007 (IInd Estimate) Objective & Methodology of the Survey: The survey of Soybean crop was conducted by The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) with the objective of accessing (a) Rainfall pattern (b) Crop development (c) Pod formation (d) Expected yield and production estimates as well as expected maturity of 2007 Soybean crop Regarding the crop data, the survey has studied the cultivator wise crop development, crop stand, number of pods & seed formation (in Pods) & expected yield per Ha. Any damage caused by insect, pest & diseases and maturity status of the crop was evaluated. For this purpose a comprehensive proforma was designed.as per the proforma the data was basically collected from the cultivators. Three teams have visited the Soybean area in different states from 22 nd Sept. to 5 th Oct. to survey the following areas; (in each team there is a representative of SGS/ Intertek /QSS/ Geochem to provide the objectivity to the survey). Team 1 Madhya Pradesh Indore, Dewas, Shajapur, Rajgarh, Guna, Shivpuri, Ashoknagar, Sehore, Vidisha, Raisen, Bhopal, Sagar, Damoh, Narsinghpur, Seoni, Chindwara, Hoshangabad, & Harda Team II Team III Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Indore, Dhar, Ratlam, Mandsaur, Neemuch & Ujjain Jhalawar, Pratapgarh, Chittoregarh, Bundi, Kota & Baran. Indore, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Betul & Harda. Washim,Yeotmal,Wardha, Akola, Amravati, Hingoli, Buldhana, Nagpur, Chandrapur, Nanded & Parbhani Nizamabad, Adilabad 1 Friday, November 02, 2007

2 MADHYA PRADESH Rainfall Pattern :- Due to early rains with the onset of monsoon the sowing operation was started in Indore, Dhar, Khandwa, Dewas, Vidisha, Guna, Shivpuri and part of Ujjain District. However the rains in the last week of June and First week of July have set up good pace of sowing in the remaining areas. Timely onset of Monsoon enables sowing of soybean by the end of June / beginning of July. This has also caused good germination and plant stand. Heavy rains have caused some damage to the sown crop in area of Harda and Hoshangabad but it was regularized by immediate sowing in these patches. The monsoon was very active in July and intermittent rains in month of August and the moderate to heavy showers in Sept. month, causing excess to normal rainfall in most of the soybean growing area. The district wise rainfall (up to ) in different district is classified as follows. Item Norms Districts Excess +20% or more Dhar, Jhabua, Khandwa, Khargone, Betul, Ujjain, Ratlam Normal +19% to -19% Umeria, Balaghat, Chhindwara, Jabalpur, Mandla, Bhopal, Rajgarh, Harda, Hoshangabad, Barwani, Dewas, Indore, Mandsaur, Shajapur & Seoni. Deficient -20%to -59 % Rewa, Satna, Sidhi, Shahdol, Chattarpur Damoh, Sagar, Datia, Guna, Gwalior, Shivpuri, Bhind, Morena, Sheopurkalan, Dindori, Katni, Neemuch, Narsingpur, Vidisha, Sehore & Raisen, Scanty -60 % and above Panna,Tikamgarh Crop Prospects and Production Estimates: - The crop condition was generally satisfactory during vegetative to reproductive phase in the areas where good rains were received in month of June, July and Aug. with the plant growth phase. In the initial phase of plant growth no Incidence of pest was observed but in later period with the gap in the monsoon the incidence of semi looper was reported in some areas like Dewas, Indore, Bhopal, Sager causing moderate to medium attack and the cultivators have adopted control measures. However in some area the growth has obstructed the entry in the field 2 Friday, November 02, 2007

3 causing almost no control measures. Astray cases of no poding was also reported from Indore District. Incidence of pest in the later stages in the standing crop has caused damage to the crop in Indore (Sanwer area), Dewas, Sager and Hoshangabad area. The control measures were initiated by cultivators thus given good check restricted the damage. In the Soybean growing area of M.P. soybean crop prospects were observed as good with different spells of rain by the end of Aug. to third week of Sept. However some moisture stress in some of the pockets in areas like Mandsaur, Neemuch was observed. But subsequent light showers has resulted good filling of the pods in late sown crop increasing the productivity. Late rains in Sept during third week at the time of maturity of early varieties have affected the quality of these varieties and delayed the maturity causing late arrivals. Increase in planting area in Soybean crop is reported from Lakh Ha (LH) in the year 2006 to LH in the year 2007 and has resulted in increased production. The total Production in Madhya Pradesh estimated Lakh tones with productivity of 1021 Kg per Ha. MAHARASHTRA Rain fall pattern: - Excess rainfall pattern was observed in Akola (846.1) Amarawati (1185.4) Wardha (1223.1) Nandurwar (1172.8) Dhulia (762.1), Pune (1071.8) Satara ( Kholhapur (2199.9) Sangli (633.7) Ahmadnagar (542.3) Sholapur (616) Nasik (1203.9) Normal rainfall was observed Jalgaon (637.1) Nanded (679.5) Jalana (567.4) Beed (667.8) Latur (783.2) Osmanabad (694.5) Nagpur (1099.8) Parbhani (783.1), Hingoli (705.2) Buldhana (716.7), Washim (805.3) Gardchaloi (1535.1) Jalgaon (637.1) Yeoatmal (821.1), Bhandara (1269.6) Aurangabad (561.5) Gondia (1157.1) Chandrapur (1331.5) (Rainfall figures as on 26/9/07 in MM) Intermittent rains at desired intervals resulting in good plant growth.. Partial moisture stress condition had given some concern but subsequent rains have offset this effect. Overall rainfall situation in Maharashtra was conducive for the good yield of Soybean. Crop Prospects and Production Estimates: - Crop sown early (9.62 Lakh Ha) had good germination. Increase of area along with good germination was reported in Amarawati, Akola, Washim, Buldhana, Latoor, Dhulia, Wardha and Jalna Districts. 3 Friday, November 02, 2007

4 The Soybean crop of Maharashtra has shown good productivity due to good germination increase use of weedicide /interculture operations resulting in less weed infested fields and crop conducive for good plant growth and subsequent flowering and poding. Increase in planting area in Soybean crop is reported from Lakh Ha (LH) in the year 2006 to LH in the year 2007 this may contribute for more production. The total Production in Maharashtra estimated Lakh tones with productivity of 1221 Kg per Ha. RAJASTHAN Rainfall Pattern : In Rajasthan the rainfall pattern shows the excess rainfall in district of Banswara ( ) and Normal rainfall in district like Rajsamand.(583.14) Kota (674.08,) Dungarpur (745.17), Udaipur (628.30) Chittor (697.66) and deficit area like Baran (639.23) Bundi, (558.83) Sawai Madhopur (544.86) Jhalawar (639.64), Bhilwara (513.25) (Rainfall figures as on 26/9/07) Sowings were delayed due to irregular monsoon so also the subsequent plant growth. Crop Prospects and Production Estimates: - Soybean cultivation area has been shown increasing trend. The crop condition is average incidence of pest and diseases were observed in Kota, The crop condition was normal in the vegetative phase and the occasional rains have given good growth period to the soybean crop. Moisture stress in the pre and post flowering phase had an effect on the plant growth in Kota District. However in these command area of Bundi, Baran cultivators had used the irrigation facilities. Incidence of weeds in the standing crop had resulted in smaller seed development.in Chittorgarh, Jhalawar area. Increase in planting area in Soybean crop is reported from Lakh Ha (LH) in the year 2006 to LH in the year 2007 this may result in increase production. The total Production in Rajasthan is estimated at Lakh tones with productivity of 963 Kg per Ha. ANDHRA PRADESH Rain fall Pattern: - The rainfall pattern was normal in A.P. Crop Prospects & Production estimates: - Soybean sowing is mainly confined to the district of Nizamabad (0.36 lakh Ha,) Adilabad (0.65 lakh ha). Crop condition was good without much incidence of pest and diseases which were controlled by timely spraying of pesticide. Good average yield is estimated from this area. Delayed harvesting is seen in late sown crop. 4 Friday, November 02, 2007

5 In the sown area of 1.07 Lakh ha of Soybean the yield estimation is lakh tones with productivity of 1278 kg per ha. KARNATAKA Crop Prospects & Production estimates: - Soybean crop was sown in lakh ha mainly confined in the district of Dhardad Belgaum, Bidar, Crop condition was reported to be normal. Soybean crop production of Karnataka is estimated to be Lakh tones in this state with productivity of 950 kg per ha. CHATTISGARH Rainfall Pattern: - Most of the area having normal rainfall (Durg MM Normal, Rajnandgaon MM Deficient) Crop Prospects & Production estimates: - In Chattisgarh soybean area was reported as1.10 Lakh ha. with a marginal increase of lakh Ha. of 2006 Kharif The production is estimated to be Lakh tones with productivity of 800kg per ha. marginal increase from last year. REST OF INDIA The area coverage of Soybean was (UP 1.07, Gujarat 0.68, Punjab , Haryana 0.01 lakh ha.) lakh ha. with estimated production of lakh tones. ALL INDIA STATEMENT AREA COVERAGE YIELD AND ESTIMATES OF YIELD OF SOYBEAN DURING KHARIF 2007 Area sown in lakh ha, Yield in kg per ha. Total production Lakh tones 2005 Kharif 2006 Kharif 2007 Kharif Name of state Area sown yield Total Product ion Area sown yield Total Product ion Area sown yield Total Product ion M. P Maharashtra Rajasthan A.P Karnataka Chattisgarh Rest of India Grand Total # Source: SOPA. 5 Friday, November 02, 2007

6 CURRENT MARKET SCENARIO: Indian production higher by about 15 lakh tonnes from last year followed by good monsoon; however exporters are net short on soymeal exports Arrivals in mandis are at peak of around lakh bags per day Indian Soymeal is being traded for contracts upto 2nd week of December; however consuming countries are uncovered after 2nd week of December Any weakness will depend if new contracts are delayed Next 15 days crucial as EL-NINO or weather disruptions in South America hamper production- if so Indian meal prices are seen to touch $400 mt mark (current $ mt) December contract on NCDEX has a good support at 1655, fresh buying can be initiated around that level. Ventura Commodities Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: Dhannur E, 15, Sir P.M. Road, Mumbai ; This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell commodities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the commodities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Commodities Pvt. Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation. 6 Friday, November 02, 2007