Leading Partners in Science Limiting warming to 2 degrees: Opportunities and challenges for agriculture and New Zealand.

Transcription

1 Limiting warming to 2 degrees: Opportunities and challenges for agriculture and New Zealand Andy Reisinger New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre (NZAGRC) Contributed paper prepared for presentation at the 59th AARES Annual Conference, Rotorua, New Zealand, February 10-13, 2015 Copyright 2015 by Authors. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.

2 Limiting warming to 2 degrees: Opportunities and challenges for agriculture and New Zealand Andy Reisinger New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre (NZAGRC) Copyright 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY

3 Warming is proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions Overview Cumulative emissions and the 2 C limit Interaction of agriculture and CO 2 mitigation Expanding agriculture s mitigation potential Conclusions

4 Warming is proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions Warming is proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions Source: IPCC Working Group I

5 Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Warming is proportional to cumulative CO emissions Limiting warming to 2 C with reasonable 2 probability (>66%) requires cumulative CO2 emissions to be capped at about 2900 GtCO2 about 1900 Gt CO2 already emitted by 2011 about 1000 Gt CO2 to go less than 30 years at current emission rates Source: IPCC Working Group I what about non-co2 emissions, particularly agriculture?

6 Limiting warming to 2 C requires zero CO 2 by 2100 Limiting but warming a different to 2level o C requires of ambition zero CO for 2 agriculture? by 2100 CO 2 emissions non-co 2 from agriculture Agriculture mitigation: assumptions global mitigation at effective carbon price low elasticity of food demand no special considerations for food security Data provided by L. Clarke (GCAM), D.P. v. Vuuren (IMAGE); see also Clarke et al. (2014) (IPCC WGIII) steeply rising marginal abatement costs relatively short lifetime of CH 4

7 Abatement of non-co 2 gases keeps the 2 C window feasible (even if only just) Source: MAGICC simulations using RCP database at IIASA; van Vuuren et al, 2011 Copyright 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY

8 Abatement of non-co 2 gases keeps the 2 C window feasible (even if only just) Without effective agriculture mitigation, we d have to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere well before 2050 to remain within the 2 C limit Source: MAGICC simulations using RCP database at IIASA; van Vuuren et al, 2011 Copyright 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY

9 Interactions between agriculture and CO 2 mitigation All pathways shown result in radiative forcing of 450ppm CO 2 -eq in 2100 Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012 Copyright 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY

10 Interactions between agriculture and CO 2 mitigation Taking agriculture mitigation seriously buys about 15 years for the peak of CO 2 emissions NPV for energy sector: >$500 billion All pathways shown result in radiative forcing of 450ppm CO 2 -eq in 2100 Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012 Copyright 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY

11 Interactions between agriculture and CO 2 mitigation but this doesn t change the long-term picture: CO Leading Partners 2 mitigation in Science to zero by 2100 is non-negotiable Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012 Copyright 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY

12 How can we get there? Sources: van Vuuren et al, 2011; Davis et al, 2013 What Leading Partners are in Science agriculture s wedges, and can we make them bigger? 11

13 Warming is proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions Agriculture s wedges Efficiency gains Demand management New/improved technologies

14 kg CO2-eq. per kg FPCM Emissions intensity and milk yield per cow Marginal lands Drivers: feed efficiency, herd structure, management practices 6.00 Mixed, in development Industrialized countries ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Source: Gerber et al Output per cow, kg FPCM per year

15 Reducing emissions intensities holds major promise Significant decline in emissions intensities for livestock products 1960s 2000s: beef: -27% milk: -38% pork: -45%

16 Source: MfE, 2013

17 Warming Demand is proportional management to cumulative CO 2 emissions Supply and demand mgmt 30-40% global food waste (UK: 18% unavoidable, 18% potentially avoidable, 64% avoidable) Dietary shifts: potentially large gains reduced rate of land clearing reduced on-farm emissions health co-benefits strong opposing socio-economic drivers difficult to quantify, let alone enact Source: IPCC, 2014

18 Diets is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Warming

19 Warming Diets is proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions Source: FAO (2012), Alexandratos and Bruinsma

20 Warming New technologies is proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions New technologies: breeding low-emitting animals (proof-of-concept market adoption) vaccine/inhibitor against methanogens ( proof of concept) low-emissions feeds (proof-of-concept (N, CH 4 ) systems testing) soil carbon enhancement/avoiding loss (measurement, models, persistence)

21 Focusing global attention remains a challenge Livestock non-co 2 emissions Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com

22 Focusing global attention remains a challenge Livestock non-co 2 / total GHG emissions Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com

23 Focusing global attention remains a challenge Livestock non-co 2 / capita Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com

24 Global Research Alliance Launched in December 2009 Brings countries together on a voluntary basis to find ways to grow more food without growing greenhouse gas emissions: Reduce the emissions intensity of agricultural production systems and increase their potential for soil carbon sequestration, while enhancing food security Improve understanding, measurement and estimation of agricultural emissions Improve farmers access to agricultural mitigation technologies and best practices

25 Global Research Alliance Member countries January 2015; source: plotted using chartsbin.com

26 Thank you