Resilience Marking: A modest proposal

Transcription

1 FSS Palestine presentation update Dec 2016 Resilience Marking: A modest proposal Rebecca Pietrelli Resilience Analysis and Policies team Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO-RIMA@fao.org

2 Outline 1 What is the FAO - Resilience Marking (RM)? 2 Quantitative evidence from FAO-Resilience Index and Measurement Analysis (RIMA-II) methodology 3 Participatory approach

3 What is the Resilience Marking? Credit: Peter Lewis/Department for International Development

4 Resilience Marking Resilience: The capacity of the household that ensures stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences (RTWG, 2014). Resilience Marking to operationalize the use of resilience in programming: A tool to assess to what extent a project contributes to household resilience capacity.

5 Resilience Marking The RM aims at marking a cluster of projects based on their contribution to household resilience: The Resilience Marker - indicator - integrates: Statistical evidence from RIMA-II on the contribution/weight of each resilience determinant. Participatory approach of experienced and knowledgeable stakeholders marking each project how much it contributes to each specific determinant of resilience.

6 Partnership RAP team and FAO country offices strongly collaborate with the National Statistical Offices in all phases of the projects: Quantitative evidence from Definition of the sampling strategy the FAO RIMA-II Contextualization of the RIMA questionnaire Training for the enumerators Logistic organization of the data collection and field supervision Data aggregation and exportation Involvement in the interpretation of the analysis results

7 Quantitative evidence The FAO RIMA: Quantitative approach employing household survey to measure: (1) the pillars of resilience (through Factor Analysis) and the Resilience Capacity Index -RCI (through Multiple Indicator Multiple Causes Model) (2) the contribution of each observed variable to the RCI the weights matrix. Since 2008, applications in more than 10 countries. The first version of RIMA has been technically improved in 2016.

8 Quantitative evidence From RIMA I to RIMA II: v 1 v 2 v 3 v 4 v 5 v 6 v 7 v 8 v 9 V n Income and Food Access (IFA) Access to Basic Services (ABS) Assets (AST) Social Safety Nets (SSN) Adaptive capacity (AC) Sensitivity (S) Resilience Capacity Food expenditure Dietary Diversity Score

9 Quantitative evidence FAO RIMA-II: How were the pillars selected in RIMA-II? Economic literature on resilience and food security; RIMA experience since 2008; Technical consultations with FAO-ESA (Ben Davis, Kostas Stamoulis) and FAO-ESS; WB (Gero Carletto, Alberto Zezza); Universities (Paul Winters, Donato Romano); Conformity with the Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group (TWG). How were the variables selected? On a case by case basis Literature review; RIMA experience; Country experts validation consultations with projects experts; Statistical properties.

10 Quantitative evidence Weights Matrix from RIMA-II: list of variables (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) Weights linear list of Pillars Weights linear transformation transformation (% of the pillar) (% of total) contribution of each variable v % v P % v % v % v P % v % v % v P % v % v % v P % v % 100%

11 Quantitative evidence Non-Camp West Bank Variable ranking in: Camp Gaza Strip Variables Contribution Cumulative Variables Contribution Cumulative Variables Contribution Cumulative Agri assets Average education Employed members Land Employed members Average education Employed members Income diversification CSI Average education CSI Agri assets Dist. to health service Dist. to health service Land Assistance cash Dist. to school Assistance inkind Assistance inkind Agri assets Assistance cash Dist. to school Land Assistance other Water cut Water cut Quality movement Wealth index Assistance inkind Toilet Income diversification Assistance cash Dist. to school CSI TLU Income diversification TLU Wealth index Dist. to health service Quality movement Members with health ins Wealth index Toilet Quality movement Tlu Assistance other Toilet Members with health ins Members with health ins Assistance other House value

12 Quantitative evidence Variables Non-Camp Contrib ution Variable ranking in (zoom in): West Bank Cumul ative Variables Agri assets Average education Camp Gaza Strip Contrib ution Cumulative Variables Employed members Contri bution Cumul ative Land Employed members Average education Employed members Income diversification CSI Average education Agri assets Dist. to health service Land Assistance cash Assistance inkind Assistance in-kind Assistance cash Dist. to school Assistance other

13 Participatory Approach

14 Participatory approach Participants: Partners of the Food Security Sector; People are informed in advance on the projects contents. Purpose of the meeting: 1) People should be aware of how RIMA works; 2) People should discuss the theory of change of each project; 3) People should score each project by each variable contributing to resilience.

15 Quantitative evidence (1) Variable definition for project discussion: Variable Measurement Definition Agricultural assets Index which includes the ownership (dummy variables) of different agricultural assets (tractor, plough, etc.). Proxy for the capacity of farming. Additionally, this variable is related to own-consumption. This can be improved productivity and sustainability due to durable assets as well as diversification of assets. Examples: rain water harvesting systems; animal shelters. Livestock cannot be considered here as it is part of another variable not included in this table. WB & GS Land Agricultural land (hectares) owned by the household in per capita terms. It includes area of irrigated, protected and rain fed vegetable, flied crops, horticultural and olive trees. Proxy for capacity of farming. Additionally, this variable is related to own-consumption. Typically land rehabilitation. Quality of land and productivity improved. Examples: irrigation network that makes the land more productive; road rehabilitation to access land. Employed members The share of people within the household with full-time (35 hours) employment. Quality and stability of employment. Proxy for stability of income sources. Standards of decent work according to ILO when applicable. Informal and household work also considered. Longer term work opportunity (>6 months), and CfT (Cash for training) projects to be considered too. Average education Average years of education of household members. Proxy for increased job opportunities, better adapting to changes. This variable is most typically adopted as a proxy for Adaptive Capacity; higher educational and skills level should correspond to greater capacity of adapting to new situations, for example in case of job lost. Building technical capacity. New technologies.

16 Quantitative evidence (1) Variable definition for project discussion (cont.): WB & GS Variable Measurement Definition Assistance in-kind Assistance cash Proxy of social safety nets. The more the Monetary value of received in-kind assistance household is connected with social and per capita. The latter includes food; free institutional networks, the more it can be able treatment/medicine; clothing; food ratio; school to receive assistance in case of need. Examples: nutrition; production inputs (seeds, fertilizers, Food and non-food items. Examples: animal feed, water tanks); drinking water; consumable agri-assets, including plastic water electricity charging; housing). tanks. Monetary value of received cash assistance per capita (cash; assistance to families affected by loss of assets or family members, etc...). Proxy of social safety nets. The more the household is connected with social and institutional networks, the more it can be able to receive assistance in case of need. Example: Unconditional Cash Transfer (UCT). Distance to health service Distance in minutes to reach health services. The time employed in getting to a health facility is a proxy for Access to Basic Services. The latter may proxy the access to health facilities and services for both persons and livestock. WB Wealth index Index which includes the number of wealth assets (car, mobile, solar heater etc.) owned by the household. Index summing the number of different income sources (over 8: agriculture; non-agri business; Income diversification wage from private sector; wage from public sector; wage from Israel sector; transfers; property; other) of the past 12 months. Proxy for wellness. It includes a large number of non productive assets that can be bought from the household and contribute to its well-being; on another hand they can be still sold out in case of necessity. The index measures how many different sources provide income of the household. The diversification of the incomes sources aims at reducing the risks associated to each income generating activity.

17 Quantitative evidence (1) Variable definition for project discussion (cont.): Variable Measurement Definition GS CSI The Coping Strategy Index, designed in 2008 by Dan Maxwell for WFP, is a rapid assessment tool for measuring behaviour: specifically people s basic consumption-related coping responses to inadequate access to food. The strategies considered in this index are the following: Proxy for coping adaptation. Purchased low quality markets Leftover Reducing reliance on negative or dangerous weight 1; coping and increasing positive coping capacity. Purchased food on credit weight 2; Reduced the portion of meals for all household members weight 1; Reduced portion of food for adults in favour of children s weight 3; Reduced number of daily meals weight 1. Assistance other Monetary value of received other (not cash or in-kind) assistance per capita (health insurance; employment/jobs; other forms of assistance not included in the list). Proxy of social safety nets. The more the household is connected with social and institutional networks, the more it can be able to receive assistance in case of need. Example: CfW (<6 months).

18 Participatory approach (2) Filling the table by project and variable: Projects Variables V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 P1 Score? Score? Score? Score? Score? Score? Score? Score? P2 Score? Score? P3 Score? To what extent the project y_1 is expected to impact the variable x1? 1. Not at all 2. Somehow 3. Sufficiently 4. Greatly 5. Completely

19 Participatory approach (3) Obtaining the average table across all the participants. (4) Combining scores and weights by project and variable. Projects Variables V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 P1 P2 P3 Av. score Av. score * Av. score * Av. score * Av. score * Av. score * * Weight Weight Weight Weight Weight Weight Av. score Av. score * * Weight Weight Av. score * Weight Av. Score * Weight Av. Score * Weight

20 Participatory approach (5) Obtaining the Resilience Marker which integrates for each project the variable contributions from RIMA-II and the scores from the participatory approach. Projects P1 P2 P3 Variables V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 Av. score Av. score * Av. score * Av. score * Av. score * Av. score * * Weight Weight Weight Weight Weight Weight Av. score Av. score * * Weight Weight Av. score * Weight Av. score * Weight Av. score * Weight Resilience Marker

21 Participatory approach Summing up: Every project gets a score from 1 to 5 according to how much it contributes to that specific variable; The process is repeated for the number of all considered variables; Each participant submits its personal scoring table, and the scores are averaged across all the participants; Every project has a final score by variable that is the combination between the scoring and the weight; Finally, we have the Resilience Marker for each project by combining all the variable scores and weights.

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