Reaction to USDA Reports

Transcription

1 August 10, 2012 Reaction to USDA Reports CROP PRODUCTION CORN: billion bu.; trade expected billion bu. -- compares to billion bu. in 2011 BEANS: billion bu., trade expected billion bu. -- compares to billion bu. in 2011 ALL WHEAT: billion bu.; trade expected billion bu. -- compares to billion bu. in 2011 ALL WINTER WHEAT: billion bu.; trade expected bil. bu. -- compares to billion bu. in 2011 SPRING WHEAT: 500 million bu.; trade expected 488 million bu. -- compares to 455 million bu. in 2011 DURUM WHEAT: 86 million bu.; trade expected 84 million bu. -- compares to 50.5 million bu. in 2011 COTTON: million bales; trade expected 16.8 million bales -- compares to million bales in 2011 USDA's first survey-based corn crop estimate came in 192 million bu. below the average, pre-report guess and billion bu. lower than the 2011 crop. USDA puts the national average yield at bu. per acre. Harvested acres are seen at million, down 1.49 million acres from USDA's June Acreage Report. That figure represents 90.6% of planted file:///h /VOL1/PFA/ProFarmerToday/PFT html/reactiontocme2.html (1 of 5) [8/10/ :19:19 AM]

2 acres, which is still higher (much higher in some cases) than private estimates. Obviously at this point, USDA has kept more "low" yield estimates in the harvested acreage mix than others. The state-by-state breakdown of corn yields shows: Illinois at 116 bu.; Indiana, 100 bu.; Iowa, 141 bu.; Kansas, 93 bu.; Minnesota, 155 bu.; Missouri, 75 bu.; Nebraska, 147 bu.; North Dakota, 100 bu.; Ohio, 126 bu.; and South Dakota, 98 bu. per acre. USDA's first survey-based soybean crop estimate came in 94 million bu. below the average, pre-report trade guess and 364 million bu. less than USDA puts the national average soybean yield at 36.1 bu. per acre. Harvested acres are seen at million, down million acres from USDA's June Acreage Report. The state-by-state breakdown of soybean yields shows: Arkansas at 39 bu.; Illinois, 37 bu.; Indiana, 37 bu.; Iowa, 43 bu.; Minnesota, 38 bu.; Missouri, 30 bu.; Nebraska, 43 bu.; Ohio, 42 bu.; and South Dakota, 31 bu. per acre. USDA's all wheat estimate came in 48 million bu. higher than traders expected. USDA now puts the national average all wheat yield at 46.5 bu. per acre, up 0.9 bu. from last month. The spring wheat yield is estimated at 42.8 bu., up 2.4 bu. from July. USDA's first survey-based cotton crop estimate came in 851,000 bales higher than traders expected. USDA puts its initial national average cotton yield estimate at 784 lbs., down 6 lbs. per acre from U.S. CARRYOVER CORN: billion bu.; up from July est. of 903 million bu. -- compares to billion bu. in BEANS: 145 million bu.; down from July est. of 170 million bu. -- compares to 215 million bu. in COTTON: 3.3 million bales; unch from July est. of 3.3 million bales -- compares to 2.6 million bales in USDA raised its old-crop corn carryover estimate 118 million bu. from last month. On the supply side, 3 million bu. were added to estimated imports. On the demand side, USDA cut food, seed and industrial use 65 million bu., with 50 million bu. of that cut coming from estimated ethanol grind. USDA also cut estimated exports by 50 million bushels. USDA now sees a national average cash price of $6.20 to $6.30, up a dime on the bottom end of the range and steady on the top end. USDA lowered its old-crop soybean carryover estimate 25 million bu. from last month. file:///h /VOL1/PFA/ProFarmerToday/PFT html/reactiontocme2.html (2 of 5) [8/10/ :19:19 AM]

3 Estimated crush was increased 15 million bu. and estimated exports were increased 10 million bushels. USDA now puts the national average cash price at $12.45, up a nickel from July. USDA left its old-crop cotton carryover estimate unchanged from last month. There were some changes on the demand side, however. USDA increased estimated exports by 110,000 bales and offset that by lowering unaccounted use by a like amount. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash price at 89.5 cents, down 1.5 cents from last month U.S. CARRYOVER CORN: 650 million bu.; down sharply from July proj. of billion bu. BEANS: 115 million bu.; down from July proj. of 130 million bu. WHEAT: 698 million bu.; up from July proj. of 664 million bu. COTTON: 5.5 million bales; up from July proj. of 4.8 million bales USDA made major changes to the corn balance sheet, which were necessitated by the dramatic cut to the corn crop from July's projection. On the supply side, USDA slashed billion bu. from total supplies as the sharp reduction in production was only partially offset by bigger beginning stocks and increased imports. On the demand side, USDA slashed total use by billion bushels. Projected feed and residual use was cut 725 million bu. to billion bu., food, seed and industrial use was cut 470 million bu. (400 million bu. of that coming from ethanol) to 5.85 billion bu. and exports were cut 300 million bu. to 1.3 billion bushels. USDA now puts the national average cash price at $7.50 to $8.90, up $2.10 on the bottom end of the range and $2.50 on the top end. USDA cut 378 million bu. from its total soybean supply projection as lower output and smaller beginning stocks more than offset a modest increase in imports. On the usage side, USDA cut 363 million bu. from projected total use to keep carryover respectable. USDA cut crush by 95 million bu. to billion bu., cut exports 260 million bu. to 1.11 billion bu. and cut residual use 8 million bu. to 27 million bushels. USDA now projects a national average cash soybean price of $15.00 to $ up $2 on both ends of the range. USDA raised its wheat carryover projection by 34 million bu. from last month as an increase in supplies more than offset an expected rise in use. On the supply side, the combination of the bigger crop and a 10-million-bu. increase in projected imports raised total supplies by 54 million bushels. That was only partially offset by a 20-million-bu. increase in projected use, with all of that coming in the feed and residual category. USDA now projects a national average on-farm cash price of $7.60 to $ up $1.40 on the bottom end of the range and up $1.60 on the top end. USDA didn't make a lot of categorical changes to the cotton balance sheet, but file:///h /VOL1/PFA/ProFarmerToday/PFT html/reactiontocme2.html (3 of 5) [8/10/ :19:19 AM]

4 projected carryover was raised 700,000 bales from last month. On the supply side, the bigger crop pushed up total supplies by 650,000 bales from July. On the demand side, USDA deceased unaccounted use by 50,000 bales. USDA now projects a national average on-farm cash price of 61.0 cents to 79.0 cents, up 1 cent on the bottom of the range and down 1 cent on the top end GLOBAL CARRYOVER CORN: MMT; up from July proj. of MMT -- projection of MMT for ; down from MMT in July BEANS: MMT; down from July proj. of MMT -- projection of MMT for ; down from MMT in July WHEAT: MMT; up slightly from July proj. of MMT -- projection of MMT for ; down from MMT in July COTTON: 67.8 mil. bales; up from July proj. of mil. bales -- projection of mil. bales for ; up from mil. bales in July GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS ARGENTINA BEANS: 55.0 MMT; compares to 55.0 MMT in July -- compares to 41.0 MMT for BRAZIL BEANS: 81.0 MMT; compares to 78.0 MMT in July -- compares to 65.5 MMT for ARGENTINA WHEAT: 11.5 MMT; compares to 12.0 MMT in July -- compares to 15.0 MMT for AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 26.0 MMT; compares to 26.0 MMT in July -- compares to 29.5 MMT for CHINA WHEAT: MMT; compares to MMT in July -- compares to MMT for CANADA WHEAT: 27.0 MMT; compares to 26.6 MMT in July -- compares to MMT for EU-27 WHEAT: MMT; compares to MMT in July -- compares to MMT for RUSSIA WHEAT: 43.0 MMT; compares to 49.0 MMT in July -- compares to MMT for FSU-12 WHEAT: MMT; compares to MMT in July -- compares to MMT for CHINA CORN: MMT; compares to MMT in July file:///h /VOL1/PFA/ProFarmerToday/PFT html/reactiontocme2.html (4 of 5) [8/10/ :19:19 AM]

5 -- compares to MMT for ARGENTINA CORN: 28.0 MMT; compares to 25.0 MMT in July -- compares to 21.0 MMT for SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.5 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in July -- compares to 11.5 MMT for BRAZIL CORN: 70.0 MMT; compares to 67.0 MMT in July -- compares to 72.8 MMT for CHINA COTTON: 31.0 mil. bales; compares to 30.5 mil. bales in July -- compares to 33.5 mil. bales for MARKET REACTION Bean futures are trading mostly 9 to 20 cents higher in reaction to USDA's data. Corn futures turned mildly lower after the report data was released and are trading mostly 1 to 3 cents lower. Wheat futures are posting double-digit losses in most contracts at all three exchanges. Copyright 2012 ProFarmer Pro Farmer, 6612 Chancellor Drive, Suite 300, Cedar Falls, IA file:///h /VOL1/PFA/ProFarmerToday/PFT html/reactiontocme2.html (5 of 5) [8/10/ :19:19 AM]