Supply Chain-based Tools for Food Safety and Defense Assessment

Transcription

1 Supply Chain-based Tools for Food Safety and Defense Assessment John T. Hoffman Colonel, USA, Retired Senior Research Fellow National Center for Food Protection and Defense 9 September 2013

2 The National Center for Food Protection and Defense was established as a Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence in In 2010, DHS provided the Center with another 6 years of support to continue its mission.

3 NCFPD Vision Defending the safety of the food system through research and education Mission Reduce the likelihood of an attack Improve the nation s ability to respond effectively Reduce the consequences of an attack 2012 National Center for Food Protection and Defense. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute without permission of NCFPD.

4 Broad Disciplinary Engagement Agriculture Animal Science Economics Engineering Business Administration Communications Computer Sciences Disposal/ Decontamination Environmental Health Food Science and Safety Logistics Microbiology Pathobiology Poultry Science Public Health Rhetoric Toxicology Veterinary Population Medicine

5 Food Continuum Paradigm Food Security: Supply sufficiency access to nutritionally adequate and safe food Food Safety: System reliability reducing exposure to natural hazards/errors/failures Food Defense: System resiliency reducing the impact of system attacks Food Quality: Supply desirability Food Protection: Safety & Defense continuum Food System Protection

6 Supply Chainbased Tools for Food Safety and Defense Assessment

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10 2011 National Center for Food Protection and Defense. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute without permission of NCFPD.

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12 2010 U.S. Food Export Destinations USDA-ERS

13 2010 U.S. Food Import Sources USDA-ERS

14 2010 Cocoa and Cocoa Preparations Origins for U.S. Imports USDA-ERS

15 1) Canada 2) Cote D'Ivoire 3) Malaysia 4) Indonesia 5) Mexico 6) Netherlands 7) Brazil 8) Ecuador 9) Belgium 10)Germany Cocoa Supply Chain U.S. Cocoa Product Imports Cocoa Bean Producers 1) Cote D Ivoire 2) Ghana 3) Indonesia 4) Nigeria 5) Brazil 6) Cameroon 7) Ecuador 8) Togo 9) Papua New Guinea 10)Mexico USDA-FAS 2008 Import Data, UN-FAOSTAT 2007 Production Data

16 Epidemiologic Modeling Projects Support to CEAH In collaboration with the USDA:Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health (CEAH) Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) Developed through a collaborative effort involving the U.S. and Canadian governments and academia

17 Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Simulated HPAI spread in MN poultry Estimated the number of flocks and birds to be tested following Federal guidelines Example of sampling protocol for 2 infected flocks in SE Minnesota

18 Early Detection of Foot and Mouth Disease Simulated FMD spread using NAADSM Estimated change in outcomes when initial detection is delayed by one day increments Results will be used for cost-benefit analysis of improved detection versus vaccination

19 Development of Classical Swine Fever and African Swine Fever Disease Spread Parameters Both are USDA Tier 1 priority foreign animal diseases Very little past modeling effort in the U.S. Parameters are needed to populate models Length of disease states Probability of infection Within-herd contact rates

20 United States/Canada Mutual Recognition of Disease Free Zones 2011 agreement between the U.S. President and Canadian Prime Minister to form a Regulatory Cooperation Council Simulations will be carried out in 2014 to inform zoning strategy and estimate resource requirements

21 Bioterrorism Terrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) New BTRA Approach - Frameworks Define farm to consumption supply chains in terms of transformations, unit operations and consumption profiles Build framework food groups out of logical combinations of transformations, unit operations and consumption profiles Develop scoring criteria to pick exemplar foods from within a cluster

22 Developing the Food List ~55,000 retail level food stock keeping units (sku s) reduced down to 250 base food items Through collaboration with the NPD group Eliminating obvious duplication ~80 industrial ingredients and 250 base dishes reduced down to 137 final foods and ingredients to cover the breadth of the food system Private sector elicitation to ensure that foods represented important system differences

23 Clustering Foods Basic approach is to make the foods within a cluster more similar to each other than those outside of a cluster: Degree of Similarity The number of characteristics that are the same Degree of dissimilarity The number of characteristics that are different Hamming Distance ( the minimum number of digits one needs to replace to make the data the same")

24 Optimized Clusters Multi-component assembled foods, thermally processed in the home Packaged, processed, cold chain RTE Assembled companion dishes Main dishes, single component foods Multi-component assembled foods, not thermally processed in the home Produce Ready to eat, primary component foods Beverages Industrial ingredients Home Ingredients 24

25 Economically Motivated Adulteration EMA FDA working definition: fraudulent, intentional substitution or addition of a substance in a product for the purpose of increasing the apparent value of the product or reducing the cost of its production, i.e., for economic gain NCFPD definition: knowingly selling a food product that is not up to standards for economic advantage

26 Types of EMA (food fraud) Dilution Substitution Artificially increasing weight Transshipment, disguising true country-of-origin Port shopping Theft Mislabeling, counterfeit, etc. Citation: Spink and Moyer, JFS Vol. 76, No. 9, 2011

27 EMA Project at NCFPD Compiling documented instances of EMA in media reports and published literature Identifying food ingredients that are susceptible to EMA based on analytical methodologies (in collaboration with United States Pharmacopeia) Identifying supply chain anomalies that could signal heightened risk of EMA in a food product or commodity

28 Pet Food Recent Documented Economic Adulteration Events Vegetable Proteins Cooking Oils Mushrooms Pomegranate Juice Apple juice Orange juice Grape juice Grapefruit juice Maple syrup Honey Alcohol Bottled water Wheat flour Cough syrup Milk Dairy Proteins Liquid Eggs Gums Honey Vanilla Extract Olive oil Sunflower oil Seafood Horseradish Tofu Maple syrup Infant formula Toothpaste Poultry Shell Eggs Rice Cheese Tomato Sauce Fiber Supplements Luncheon Meats Pomegranate Juice Ground Beef - Water Ground Meat - Species Reduced Butter Fat Cream Basil Oregano Shrimp Dog Treats Wine

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32 EMA Project at NCFPD import data 300+ HTS codes representing food/agricultural products 12 years of line-entry data ( ) Developed a methodology for detecting unusual shifts in monthly import quantities from top countries Constructed an online interface for rapid data analysis incorporating multiple platforms Rapid visualization of data fields and countries-oforigin Summary report based on analysis of 63 HTS codes

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34 Mapping capability (shrimp)

35 Mapping capability (fresh apples)

36 Proposed prototype for visualizing and monitoring trade routes

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40 FIDES Focused Integration of Data for Early Signals a comprehensive, systematic process for monitoring potential food systems risks and identifying adverse food events though data fusion and analytics. analysis of second- and third-order effects of food and agriculture systems disruptions and other events.

41 event # Cases Finding the Sweet Spot SWEET SPOT Incubation Period Multiple Data Streams (Intelligence, Trade, Weather) Clinical Surveillance

42 FIDES Focused Integration of Data for Early Signals

43 Food Defense Regulations are in the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) Preventive controls for unintentional and intentional contamination Importers verify supplier food safety compliance Supporting the Food Safety Preventive Controls Alliance (FSPCA)

44 Sector Cyber Risk Reduction Passwords Firewalls Virus Detection Trustwave report for 2012: Food and Beverage Industry one of the top 5 compromised Industries in 2012 SCADA Risks Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition for Industrial Controls 2013 National Center for Food Protection and Defense. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute without permission of NCFPD Training for detection Limit access to computers

45 Across the Food & Agriculture Sector Our Systems are Linked via the WEB!

46 Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Determine the HAZARD and RISK to supply chains and of individual vulnerabilities Appropriately allocate resources to address the highest priority vulnerabilities and to cost effectively implement preventive controls Tools: FASCAT FDA irisk ( Carver + Shock Next Generation Risk Assessment Tools soon 2013 National Center for Food Protection and Defense. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute without permission of NCFPD

47 NCFPD Is Developing A Next Generation Supply Chain Risk Assessment Tool Supply Chain Criticality & Risk Assessment in a geospatial environment will facilitate far more effective preventive controls implementation CRISTAL: Criticality Spatial Analysis

48 NCFPD Vision Defending the safety of the food system through research and education