Ensuring Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) for the Farming Communities around the World

Transcription

1 Ensuring Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) for the Farming Communities around the World R.S. Paroda Asia-Pacific Association of Agricultural Research Institutions (APAARI) (Member of the HLT for the GFCS)

2 World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland 31 August 4 4 September 2009

3 Conference Declaration WCC-3 3 Decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services Decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services Requested the SG of WMO to convene an Intergovernmental Meeting within four months Decided that the High Level Taskforce of independent experts should prepare a report after wide consultation Decided that the report of the Taskforce be circulated to Member States for consideration at the next WMO Congress (in 2011) Review of the Outcome of WCC-3 3

4 Objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services? To improve the quality of climate information, make improved services accessible to all, especially the most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate variability and change, since it is they who have least access to climate services. 4

5 WHY a FRAMEWORK for CLIMATE SERVICES? Because there are gaps in the data networks supporting the services Blue dots more than 90% of data received Red & yellow dots less than 45% of data received 5

6 WHY a FRAMEWORK for CLIMATE SERVICES? Because there are gaps in the global distribution of scientists, engineers and other tertiary educated people who create information- based services Canada 3% Germany 3% France 2% Mexico 2% UK 3% India Other 6% 24% Japan 9% China United 10% States 22% Russian federation 16% Global distribution of tertiary educated workers

7 Anthropogenic warming is unequivocal

8 Impact of Climate Change Emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) leading to warming of climate system by C between 1906 and 2005 Temperature rise expected by the end of current Century between 2 to C and sea level rise by around 0.18 to 0.59 meters More intense tropical cyclones with faster wind speeds and heavy precipitation Contraction of Himalayan glaciers and snow cover

9 Other projected changes of climate (by 2100) Sea levels will rise by 0.1 to 0.8 metres More tropical cyclones More frequent very hot days And we can see some of these changes already, occurring now.

10 Background Floods 2002 Worst Floods in Centuries across Europe Worst Floods in Decades across Asia

11 Background Drought 2006 AUSTRALIA Suffered Worst Drought in Centuries

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13 Availability of irrigation water Scholze et al. (2006) Blue Red tendency to increase tendency to decrease

14 Siachen Glacier Retreat * Siachen Glacier has been retreated about 1.8 Km in last 17 years Source: PMD, June

15 Economic losses (billions US $) Hydrometeorological Geological Economic Impacts Asia is second only to North America and the Caribbean in economic losses from disasters Africa Asia Europe Pacific N-C Am & Carr. South America 15

16 Greenhouse Effect vs Abrupt Climate Change The Greenhouse effect is a natural process that has increased the temperature of the Earth from -18 C to +15 C and made Earth a habitable planet for diverse life as we know it. The abrupt climate change is a process by which Earth s temperature increases at the rate > 0.1 C/decade. With 1 C increase in temperature the biomes shift poleward by kms because ecosystems cannot adjust to such abrupt changes. CMASC 10/08

17 Impacts of Climate on Agriculture The impact of climate on agricultural production is increased in fragile environments. As much as 80% of the variability in agricultural production is due to climate variability The indirect impacts of climate on insects, diseases, and weeds increase when there is climate stress imposed on the plant or animal.

18 Reported Impacts in Japan Rice Significant reductions in yield and quality of rice in southern Japan. Other cereal crops Some prefectures reported the effects on yield and quality of wheat and barley. Fruit tree Fruit qualities have clearly changed, for example coloring faintly, enlarging, reduction of acid, softening and spoiling rapidly. Vegetables and flowers Reductions in the growing periods of leafy and root vegetables as well as fruits vegetables. Livestock and forage crops Reductions in yields of temperate grass and maize were reported in various parts of Japan. Clouding of rice Tanning of apple

19 The favorable regions to cultivate apples will gradually move northward in Japan. Current climate 2060 s Temperature zone appropriate for the cultivation (7-13 ) Temperature zone above 13 (Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004) 19

20 Projected increase in intensity of Indian monsoon, c (HadRM2) Change in Annual number of rainy days Change in rainfall per rainy day

21 Effect of Increase in Temperature on Wheat Yields in Different Agro-Climatic Zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant) Wheat Yield (kg/ha) Temperature Change ( o C) Northern Mountainous (Humid) Northern Sub- Mountainous (Sub-humid) Southern Plains (Semi arid) Southern Plains (Arid) 21

22 User Interface Programme for Agriculture More effective use of global, regional and national climate information and prediction services by farming communities around the world (leading to improved planning and investment in the agricultural sector vital to national economies and livelihoods)

23 Relevance of Climate Services for Agriculture Sector In order to reduce the risk of crop failure and increase the resilience of agronomic and horticultural systems for feed, food, fiber, and fuel production there is an urgent need to develop an improved understanding of the complex interactions between climate and agricultural systems. There is an urgent need to implement production systems that can adapt to climate variation and climate extremes, especially in developing countries.

24 Climate services would assist in adapting to climate change impacts on food availability According to the World Bank, it would take only a three-foot rise in sea level to submerge parts of 20 or so other rice-growing river deltas in Asia and the World at large. 24

25 What will the Contribution of the GFCS be? The possibility of a range of science-based disaster risk response strategies everywhere. in-natural-disasters 25

26 Fukushima, Japan Prolonged Mid-Season Aeration to Reduce CH 4 Emissions aeration Continuous flooding 7 days aeration 14 days aeration 21 days aeration MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Flooding

27 The Workplan of the Taskforce (1) Information gathering through consultation with governments, users and providers, scientists, and operational observing and information systems; and, (2) Preparation of a report, including, options for implementing the GFCS, how it might be governed and the cost of doing this. This report to be considered by the WMO s 16th Congress (May 2011), and by the UN Secretary-General, for appropriate follow-up. 27

28 Consultative Meetings held/planned Nairobi, Kenya April African Ministerial Bali, Indonesia 30 April/6May WMO RA V Geneva, Switzerland 18 May UN Interagency meeting Geneva, Switzerland 25 May Club Diplomatic Geneva, Switzerland 2 June Geneva missions briefing Oslo, Norway 8-12 June IPY Conference Geneva, Switzerland 9 June WMO Exec Council Beijing, China June Consultation Delhi, India 21 June Consultation Mexico City, Mexico 5-7 July CODIA Belo Horizonte, Brazil July CAgM Workshop Bogata, Columbia Sept WMO RA III Marrakech, Morocco 28 Oct/4 Nov RA I Windhoek, Namibia Nov CBS (Ext) Cayman Is, Caribbean 9-10 Nov Heads of NMSs Cancun, Mexico 29 Nov/10 Dec CoP16 28

29 Questionnaire for e-consultation In all,15 questions relating directly to the structure of the report (likely supply of climate services, demand of climate services and how to implement the GFCS). Around 120 responses received for initial analysis, with about half from the operational community and half from the research community. Responses from regions Africa 19 Asia 23 South America 3 Carib/North America 12 SE Asia/Oceania 11 Europe

30 FEEDBACK FROM e-consultation Establishment of an evolving system that is user driven, and that fills existing gaps; Building of capacity at global, regional and more specifically at national levels of both providers and sectoral users so that standard climate services are effectively used; Development of a team of experts that can carry out research to meet the various requirements of appropriate climate services to end users; Investments in institutional infrastructure in order to make available required information in a timely manner; Establishment of communications channels at different levels that are dedicated to promoting climate services; and, Development of an organisational model that attracts additional funding from the Governments, Private Sector and the Donor Community.

31 Feedback from National Systems Free access to information (though some have expressed concerns/reservations) Regional and Global Services must get established/strengthened Good communication strategy in place Services at the National level need to be improved Higher investments needed on climate services Capacity building - a critical need Global coordination mechanism is paramount Time now to act than talk

32 Report Structure Part I: What climate services are available from all sources around the world that are proving to be useful The Supply side Part II: What is likely to be required in short, medium and long-term The Demand side Part III: Options for bridging gaps and implementing mechanisms to meet current and future climate services requirements with an emphasis on not duplicating what is now available - The implementation strategy. 32

33 What will the Global Framework for Climate Services Look Like? Capacity Building Government Water Agriculture Agriculture Water Health Health Observations Research & and Modeling Monitoring and Prediction Transport Transport Sectoral Users Users User Interface User Programme Interface Programme Energy Energy Ecosystem Ecosystem Tourism Climate Services Information System System Private Tourism sector Research & Modeling and Prediction Capacity Building 33

34 Perhaps a more appropriate schematic would be to have the following features: Global Coordination with both regional and national centres. Regional Centres provide required standard products and participate in User Interface processes A slightly revised schematic of the GFCS

35 GFCS for Farming Communities (1) Improve risk evaluation and information delivery. An intensive effort is needed on the use of climate forecasts to reduce the risks to crop and animal production, especially in areas where the risks are greatest. Such efforts should include the development of effective dissemination tools for timely provision of authentic information for decision-makers. Climate information should hence be relevant and actionable to meet the needs of end users, such as contingency planning to adapt to rainfall variations, drought proofing, crop insurance etc. 35

36 GFCS for Farming Communities (2) New and innovative models of cooperation and partnerships are needed among several groups including WMO, FAO, WHO, the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), National Agricultural Research Systems and Extension Services, national entities dealing with agriculture, food security and policy issues, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and Soil Conservation Services. Linkages between producers of climate information and applications and various end users have to be enhanced through appropriate mechanisms such as awareness raising, capacity- building for intermediaries as well as end users, and the strengthening of institutional partnerships, especially in the developing countries that are more vulnerable to climate change effects. 36

37 GFCS for Farming Communities (3) Adaptation strategies to cope with climate variation and extreme events will have to be developed and transferred in a timely manner so that their adoption helps in reducing and managing risks and ensure resilient agricultural systems. Strategies for climate change mitigation for agricultural systems will be developed. It is important to recognize that agriculture is also a part of the solution to mitigate climate change and hence adequate investments at national, regional and global level are required as a matter of urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while ensuring increased agricultural productivity and overall environmental sustainability. Mechanisms for compensation to small farmers for environmental services that they provide will have to be put in place as a matter of priority. 37

38 Conclusions Convert the WCC-3 vision of Climate Services for the Agriculture Sector into a well defined, sustainable operational system based around existing national, regional and global contributions to climate observing, research and services capabilities; Establish and strengthen cooperation/partnership that engage all stakeholders in the agriculture sector; Promote and support capacity building to activate GFCS User Interface Forum in Agriculture. 38

39 Future Strategy Think Globally Act Locally

40 Thank you 40