Food security and fishery in West Africa: new stakes for governance

Transcription

1 Food security and fishery in West Africa: new stakes for governance 3 e Forum régional côtier et marin en Afrique de l Ouest, Praia, Cape Verde, Avril 2007

2 Current and future Context

3 Fish and trade of developing countries US$ 1000 million Meat Rice Tea Sugar Cocoa Banana Coffee Fish

4 World production of fish Fao, Fishstat 2006

5 Fish production: Developed versus developing countries Millions Developing Developed Both from FAO FISHSTAT and FAOSTAT

6 Level of exploitation But: all demersal are fully exploited or overexploited!

7 West Africa: 3 Mt of 80 Mt 6 SRFC countries: 1.1 Mt

8 Declining resource availability in a context of trade liberalisation Biomass Fishing intensity Biomass and catch (million tonnes) Catch Fishing intensity 0.5 Biomass Biomass, catch and fishing intensity in West Africa (from Waston, 2002)

9 2015 Population versus wealth Population in 2015 GDP in 2015

10 Projections Summary results: projected world supply, demand, trade and price for fish and fisheries products Production Demand Net trade Prices million tonnes, live weight equivalent % changes Base period 1995/ Projections at constant prices Projections at equilibrium prices

11 Fish demand projections per continent 1965/ /97 2,015 2,030 Growth rates 1965/ /97 to to 2015 to 1995/ TOTAL DEMAND 000 tonnes, live weight percent per year Developing countries 17,796 77, , , Africa 1,873 5,296 8,971 13, Latin America 4,273 6,959 10,921 15, Asia 11,583 64, , , Oceania Developed countries 34,644 43,811 49,913 54, North America 5,713 7,611 9,106 10, Western Europe 14,727 15,345 18,967 21, Oceania , Others 7,201 14,084 14,820 14, E.Europe + Former USSR 6,737 6,153 6,111 6, Statistical discrepancy World 52, , , ,

12 Summar y Increasing population and fish demand from Asia (until 2030) Fish trade is a major source of income and foreign currencies Increasing trade opportunities

13 Fish trade paterns in West Africa

14 Trend of fish exports M US $ in Crustacean and molluscs Fish, canned Fish, dried, salted or smoked Fish, fresh, chilled or frozen Value of fish exports from the 6 countries of SRFC (Million US $) (source: FAO Fishstat, 2006)

15 Countries trends 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Cape Verde + Gambia + Guinea + Guinea Bissau Mauritania Senegal Volume of fish exports from the 6 countries of SRFC (tonne) (source: FAO Fishstat, 2006)

16 Senegalese fishermen: From the Banc d Arguin to the Bijagos Islands

17 Role of MPAs in West Africa trade of fish Europe About 8 M US $ in 2004 Autoconsumption Dom estic consumption Afric a Asia

18 West Africa fish chains Production Processing Market supply means Final market Artisanal Prod t No processing (Fresh or Chilled): t Local marketing: t National markets: t Industrial Prod t DWF (incl. Joint venture) t Traditional processing: t Frozen, Storage: t Routing to export market: t Afrique : t Asia (China, Japon, Philippines): t Europe: t UE DWF t Non-food use processing: t Export without landing t Eastern Europe: t Non-food use: t Average yearly ( ) (note: DWF:`Distant water fleets; all figures are in live weight equivalent)

19 Summary of impacts of fish trade Mauritania Cape Verde Senegal Gambia Guinea Bissau Guinea Conakry National value added Public receipts Exports Employment National market supply Coastal demersal resources Deep water Demersal species Small pelagics Big pelagics and sharsks Marine Ecosystems

20 Consumption issues

21 Fish consumption paterns Fish consumption in Mauritania, Guinea Bissau and Senegal (average ) Mauritanie Guinea Bissau Sénégal Consumption per inhabitant (kg/inhab./year) Proteins (Grams per day) Fish proteins /Total proteins of total population 5% 9% 13% Fish proteins /Total proteins of coastal population 30% 70% 80%

22 Consumption patterns (1) 1-a decrease in the availability of fish on the national markets and a rise in prices (a corollary due to the current scarcity of the resources), which in turn leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of West African households, the majority of which already live below the poverty line; 2- Traditionally consumed species are being replaced by species that were either not consumed, or rarely so, a decade ago. Equally, with species of high commercial value that are largely unavailable, there is an increase of the consumption of species that were previously left for households of lowest

23 Consumption patterns (2) 3-Fish consumption is more and more concentrated on coastal and urban areas (difficulties to supply landlocked areas) 4-The substitution of poultry for fish occurs because of lower prices for white meat than for fish (poultry which is to some extent imported from Europe thanks to export subsidies).

24 Nutritional consequences Nutritional values of some fish species and chicken Species FAO Code Species Group Energy(Kcal) Protein(g) Lipid(g) Octopus nei OCT Cephalopods 82 14,91 1,04 Lesser African threadfin GAL Demersal 87 19,2 0,6 Flatfishes nei FLX Marine fish, demersal 91 18,84 1,19 Cuttlefishes/bobtail/squids CTL Cephalopods 92 15,58 1,38 Pargo breams nei SBP Demersal 92 18,4 1,5 Congo dentex DNC Demersal 92 18,8 1,3 Groupers nei GPX Demersal 92 19,38 1,02 Goatfishes, red mullet nei MUM Demersal 96 20,4 1 Skipjack tuna SKJ Pelagic/Tunas ,51 1,34 Snappers nei SNA Demersal ,51 1,34 Sardinellas nei SIX Pelagic ,9 Shrimp CNZ Crustaceans ,9 0,6 Common shrimp CSH Crustaceans ,08 1,96 Shark SKH Demersal ,98 4,51 Chiken Hakes nei HKX Demersal ,8 5,4 European pilchard(=sardine) PIL Pelagic ,6 7,5 Jack and horse mackerels nei JAX Pelagic, small Plain bonito BOP Pelagic ,6 6 Yellowfin tuna YFT Pelagic/Tunas ,5 Atlantic mackerel MAC Marine fish, pelagic ,6 13,89 Source: Platt B.S., Tables of Representative values of foods commonly used in tropical countries; USDA Table of nutrient FAO and US Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Food Composition Table for use in Africa; "McCance and Widdowson's, The Composition of Foods. The Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge; CNRST and University of Oslo, The Composition of Malian Foods.

25 Nutritional consequences Demersal Pelagic = Improvement of energetic and nutritional values Fish Chicken (increase of Omega 6, decrease of Omega 3) Cultural losses???

26 Forecast s 2015

27 Food security issues 6,0 5,0 4,0 Million t 3,0 2,0 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant consumption per caput Apparent consumption with a growth rate of consumption per caput of 4% Apparent consumption of fish in West Africa ( ; 2002 as a starting point for projections)

28 Scenario 1: maintenance of the fish availability at its 2002 level for the period 6, ,0 4,0 2,7 m t 3,0 0,6 m t 2,0 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant fish consumption per capita Apparent consumption with a growth rate of fish consumption per capita of 4% Fish supply at its 2002 level

29 Scenario 2: increase of imports to satisfy the growing demand of fish consumption in cities 6,0 5,0 4,0 2,4 m t 3,0 0,4 m t 2,0 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant fish consumption per capita Apparent consumption with a growth rate of fish consumption per capita of 4% Fish supply increases by 1%/year due to an increase of imports or a decrease of exports

30 Scenario 3: assumption that the export of small pelagics to Asia will increase leading to a reduction of the fish supply by 5% annually 6,0 5,0 4,0 4,0 m t 3,0 2,0 1,9 m t 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant fish consumption per capita Apparent consumption with a growth rate of fish consumption per capita of 4% Fish supply decrease by 5%/year due to an increase of small pelagics exports to Asia

31 Scenario 4: increase of fish supply due to the increasing demand from the middle class and the increasing exports of small pelagics 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,8 m t 3,0 2,0 1, 8 m t 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant fish consumption per capita Apparent consumption with a growth rate of fish consumption per capita of 4% F. s. decrease by 4%/year: increase of imports of high com. val. and small pelagic exports

32 Climate variability: optimistic scenario 6,0 5,0 4,0 2,4 m t 3,0 1,5 m t 0,3 m t 2,0 0,7 m t 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant fish consumption per capita Apparent consumption with a growth rate of fish consumption per capita of 4% Fish supply at its 2002 level with climate variabiltiy

33 Climate variability: pessimistic scenario 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,6 m t 3,0 2,3 m t 2,0 1,3 m t 1,5 m t 1,0 0, Apparent consumption with constant fish consumption per capita Apparent consumption with a growth rate of fish consumption per capita of 4% Fish supply decrease by 4% per year with climate variability

34 Conclusion: research and policies issues

35 Research issues Definition of dependency levels of small pelagic abundances (main species) on climate variability; mainly for fish stocks that are affected by the Canary, Guinean and Benguela currents. Description of consumption patterns, consumption trends and changes in African countries, among fish species and between meat and fish. Analysis the changes of the supply chain of fish, both in Africa and foreign market like the Asian market. Realisation of forecasts (abundance, catches, supply, consumption) to better address the issue of food security (from animal proteins).

36 Policy issues Coherent African policy framework Incentive policy instruments

37 Coherent African policy framework 1-The development and improvement of the relationship between fishing and trade. 2-The definition and the development of a common position regarding fishing agreements and trade issues 3-The design and sitting up of a coherent policy framework.

38 Incentive policy instruments 1-Incentives to improve fishing: quality 2-Incentives to improve selling: value added 3-Incentives to improve trading: connections to markets (locals, national, regional and international)