The future orientation of agricultural research policy in times of increasing uncertainty

Transcription

1 The future orientation of agricultural research policy in times of increasing uncertainty Wolfgang Ritter Chair of the SCAR Foresight Group presented by Elke Saggau Conference on Enhancing Innovation and Delivery of Research in European Agriculture 7th of March 2012, Brussels 1

2 Future orientation of agricultural research policy in times of increasing uncertainty Structure of presentation What is the newness of the research challenge? Is the Agricultural Knowledge System (AKS) fit to cope with the new challenges? Are the framework conditions supportive? Are the incentive structures adequate? AKS: More value for money through cooperation Concluding remarks on governance & complexity 2

3 What is the newness of the research challenge? Era of the Anthropocene -> biosphere shaped by humanity Population growth: more food, energy, water & shrinking resources -> Unintended consequences are piling up Strong feedbacks between environmental, social and economic systems increase changes, uncertainty and risks about the world food situation over the next years & international security Frequency and intensity of interconnected crisis increasing (WEF Report 2012) New speed of change & shorter reaction time to prepare for unexpected developments and abrupt and irreversible consequences A much wider Research Agenda is required -> well beyond the traditional agricultural disciplines -> Goal: to produce more with less! 3

4 Providing enough Food, Feed, Fibre & Fuel without further endangering ecosystem services in a resource constrained world Biggest challenge of this century! Romano Prodi It is a challenge that will be difficult to gain but dramatic to lose. We have to get it right and we don t have the time to wait! Sir John Beddington Sustainability in agriculture is an essential aspect of the climate change agenda and offers a route to a green and low carbon economy! 4th Berlin Agriculture Ministers Summit, January 2012 Agricultural research on sustainable production has to receive a higher profile considering the limited resources, the increasing impact of climate change and the growing demand for foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials There is a broad consensus on the challenges ahead but 4 there is less agreement on how to achieve the necessary transformations

5 Is the AKS adequately equipped and fit for purpose? Major Problems: -under-funding for years despite of a much broader agenda - research is organised along disciplinary lines - only few incentives for systemic & practice oriented research How can we do better? - reliable & adequate funding for a much broader research agenda - balance between disciplinary, systemic & practice orientation - stronger stakeholder involvement (policy, industry, farmers) ->EIP - more inter- & trans-disciplinary research (cast a wide net) - strategic & long-term orientation of research agenda 5

6 Does the EU fall behind its competitors? Brazilian Government strategic decision in 1973 was to develop tropical agricultural research EMBRAPA (National Agricultural Research System) EMBRAPA has established Labex (research units) in USA, FR, NL, DE and in Ghana. Starting up with strategic research programmes 2006: Agri-energy; crop-livestock integration; competitiveness of production chains; quality assurance in food production; Advanced biology (GMO & nanotechnology), agroecology. Result: A strategic long-term research policy orientation! Annual productivity growth of 4-5%, 1 Real invested returned 14 to society 6

7 Are the framework conditions supportive? Major Problems at governance level: - short-term problems influence the political agenda - split of responsibility at decision making level - narrow focus of decision making despite of new realities - successful approaches of the past are inadequate for the future How can we do better? - to establish a strategic & long-term research policy orientation - governance has to be backed by forward looking activities - to consider side-effects on other policy fields or on other regions - policies at national, EU- and global level should be coherent 7

8 Are the incentive structures adequate? Major Problems: - the entire research funding and evaluation system is organized in a way which favours disciplinary oriented, short- term and individual career-oriented research approaches - funding and recognition of systemic, inter- and trans-disciplinary and long-term approaches is largely inadequate How can we do better? - revision of the entire research funding and evaluation systems in the light of the new interconnected challenges - important to break out of this lock-in situation - to make a better balance between short- and long-term needs - incentives for integrated approaches & practice orientation 8

9 Agricultural Knowledge System AKS - The general setting At least three levels: National, European, International At least two players : public and private sector research New challenges are the same for all players. However, their research ambitions and orientations can be quite different. But we have room for improving the overall performance of research outcome: By strengthening cooperation at three levels: Public to public (P2P): bi- or multilaterally: ERA-Nets, JPIs, Article 185 public and private partnerships (PPP) with international partners: CGIAR, global initiatives or programmes Cooperation is tool to get more benefit from the invested money 9

10 Starting Point Agricultural Knowledge System AKS - More value for money through cooperation in the public domain Most new challenges (e.g. climate change, biodiv. loss) demand a globally coordinated effort to manage the challenges -> better coordination needed Strong public research focus on common goods of strategic importance (ecosystems- & resilience research, transformation research) -> producing more from less (ecological intensification) & resource scarcities P2P cooperation is useful on research programme and infrastructure level to cover questions on common goods Various options in bi- & multilateral arrangements, in EU or wider Note: Concern of smaller countries: Increased coordination cost could exclude smaller countries -> need to re-think ERA concept) 10

11 Agricultural Knowledge System AKS - More value for money through cooperation in the private domain Starting Point Private research is an important factor in agricultural sector (~50% of research funding in OECD countries) Investment more in modern agricultural technologies and much less in agroecological innovations ETPs cover specific fields (10 ETPs linked to agri-sector) They complement public research which has a wider agenda PPP in areas of common interest as a means of knowledge and technology transfer (sharing of labour in innovation process) PPP could induce a shift in public funding towards areas of research leading to more PPP (+ effect on economic growth) 11

12 Concluding remarks on governance & complexity demand is growing while resource base is shrinking the world is getting more complex & interdependent strong feedback between environmental, social and economic systems amplify uncertainty, risks and speed of change current decision making processes are too narrowly focussed, sector specific and short-term oriented; trade-offs hardly considered largely inadequate given new challenges and speed of change new context of decision making is more knowledge intensive than ever strategic and long-term research priority setting is needed policy making key evidence-based research relevant for new challenges The new challenges call for an anticipatory governance approach to identify weak signals & emerging issues as early as possible SCAR with its established foresight process is prepared to help 12

13 SCAR Foresight Process Scanning and monitoring exercise of recent relevant national, regional or international foresight activities 13

14 Governing with foresight can help to avoid surprising developments Thank you for your attention 14