Economics and GHG emissions of Irish cattle systems

Transcription

1 Economics and GHG emissions of Irish cattle systems Paul Crosson, E.G. O Riordan and M. McGee Livestock Systems Research Department, Animal & Grassland Research and Innovation Centre, Teagasc, Grange, Ireland. 64 th Annual Meeting of the EAAP Nantes, France, 29 August 2013

2 Outline Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems

3 Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems

4 Irish economy Irish GDP (2000=100) Irish unemployment rate (%) Irish GDP Irish Unemployment rate Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office

5 Agriculture s role in the Irish economy Agriculture accounts for ~30% of net foreign earnings from the Irish manufacturing economy. Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office

6 Export-led Agri-food sector 1200 % of gross output from agriculture Self sufficiency (%) Cereals, 5 Sheep, 4 Other, 15 Beef & Cattle, 30 0 Pigs, 8 All Meats Beef & Veal Pigmeat Sheepmeat Poultrymeat Milk, 39 Other Meat Drinking Milk Cream Butter Cheese Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office

7 Land use Total land area 7 m ha (1/8 of France) 4.6 m ha for agriculture and 0.75 m ha for forestry Forestry, 14% Other, 2% Cereal, 15% Grassland, 69% Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine; Central Stats Office

8 Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems

9 Distribution of farms and cattle System Dairying Mixed Livestock Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep Tillage % farming population % of total cattle % of dairy cows % of suckler cows Source: Hennessy et al., 2012

10 Farm size & income System 140% 120% Dairying Mixed Livestock Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep Tillage Area farmed (ha) 100% DP as % of FFI Of which rented 80% (ha) % Stocking rate 40% (LU/ha) % Gross margin ( ) 0% 114,056 65,884 21,433 28,626 30,274 75,816 Dairying Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Mainly Sheep Mainly Tillage Mixed Livestock All Systems FFI ( ) 68,570 34,902 10,453 14,573 16,805 35,296 Source: Hennessy et al., 2012

11 Demographics % of total farmers 30% 70% 25% 60% 20% 50% 40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 5% 10% 0% Distribution of farmers ages Off farm job No off farm job < > Source: Hennessy et al., 2012

12 Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems

13 Production systems Pasture based production systems Spring-calving (March-April) Continental crossbred cow & latematuring sire of a different breed Cost of feed production ( /t DM) Grazed grass Grass silage Maize silage (without plastic) Whole crop w inter w heat Spring barley grain First calving at ~30 months of age Steers finished at ~28 months of age Heifers finished at ~24 months of age

14 Breeds Suckler beef cows LM CH SI BB EM (HE&AA) Other 31% 23% 12% 21% 5% 8% Sires used on beef cows

15 Breeds Dairy cow breeds HO-FR MO RB JE Other 94% 3% 1% 1% 1% Sires used on dairy cows

16 Numbers of breeding & other cattle Cattle numbers (m head) Cow numbers (m head) 0.90 Total Cattle Dairy Cows Other Cows

17 Cattle disposals 2,000 Slaughtered ('000 head) 1,600 1, Live Exports Meat Export Premises Home Market

18 Export destinations

19 Price trends Relative price (base 2000 = 100) Prime Cattle Cows Store Cattle Sheep Milk

20 Profitability Challenge Teagasc eprofit Monitor Stocking rate (LU/ha) Gross margin ( /ha) Bottom 5% Bottom 10% Bottom 33% Average Top 33% Top 10% Top 5% Stocking rate Gross margin

21 Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems

22 GHG emissions GHG emissions in steady decline since (JRC, 1998; 2011) 9% lower than 1990 But accounted for 30.4% of national emissions in 2010; EU average ~9% Of developed countries, only New Zealand has a higher proportion

23 GHG emissions 16 GHG emissions (kg CO2e/kg live weight) SRW SRS SRF DYS DYF STF Production system Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from Irish beef production systems. SRW = Suckler to weanling; SRS = Suckler to store/finish; SRF = Suckler to finish; DYS = dairy calf to store/finish; DYF = dairy calf to finish; STF = store to finish.

24 Green targets: GHG emissions Agricultural GHG emissions (Mt CO2eq) Historic data FH Scenario 2005 level Decline in animal numbers Natural restructuring of national herd Maximum reduction potential using BAT -10% target -20% target -30% target Source:

25 Overview Irish agriculture overview Structure of farms in Ireland Irish beef production systems GHG emissions from Irish beef systems Future perspectives for Irish cattle systems

26 Export-led Agri-food sector Increase beef output value by 20% (40%) Increase milk production by 50% Increase sheepmeat output value by 20% Source: Irish Dept Agr, Fisheries and the Marine

27 Implementation of CAP Flat rate 600 impact on more intensive farmers 0.8 Solution 400 partial convergence. Payments <90% of national 200 average increase by 1/3 of difference to to to to 272 Total SPS ' to to to to to Stocking rate (LU/ha) Total m LU/ha

28 Projected cattle numbers System Dairy cows 1,022 1,031 1,293 Dairy heifers Beef cows 1,134 1,086 1,032 Beef heifers Total cattle 6,232 5,574 5,844

29 Sectoral roadmap Sectoral Average Research Target Current (2011) 2018 Calving interval Calves/cow/year Grass (% of total DM fed) Herbage utilised (kg DM/ha) 4,760 5,997 10,009 Liveweight output (kg/ha) ,183 Carcass output (kg/ha) Costs per kg liveweight ( /kg) Gross output ( /ha) ,903 Gross margin ( /ha) ,038 Net margin ( /ha)

30 Summary Agriculture playing an increasingly important role in the depressed Irish economy Industry targets (Food Harvest) significant increase in output smart, green, growth. Challenge to meet GHG emissions targets Dairy industry projected to expand substantially with corresponding increases in dairy beef production. Sectoral targets have been set to improve productivity and profitability

31 Go raibh maith agaibh Paul Crosson Animal & Grassland Research and Innovation Centre, Teagasc, Grange, Phone: Fax: