Combining Climate Science and Social Science to Develop Decision Support Tools for Corn Producers and Advisors

Transcription

1 Combining Climate Science and Social Science to Develop Decision Support Tools for Corn Producers and Advisors Linda Stalker Prokopy, PhD U2U Project Director, Associate Professor Purdue University 1

2 Nearly one-third of global supply Over $50B to US economy U.S. CORN BELT

3 Agriculture and Climate Change Midwestern crop production highly dependent on favorable temperatures and appropriate precipitation patterns Climate variability limits season-to-season predictability and lessens ability to maintain viable farm operations Producers need enhanced information for decision making

4

5 U2U Vision Transform existing climate information into usable knowledge for agricultural decision making Give farmers the resources and training to more effectively manage variable climate conditions Increase Extension capacity to address agro-climate needs More and farms in a changing climate

6 U2U Team State climatologists Crop modelers Agronomists Economists Social scientists RCC staff NOAA staff

7 Objectives Five Year Plan ( ) 1. Examine impacts of past/future climate on crop productivity and implications for farm management 2. Understand stakeholder needs 3. Design decision support tools and prepare training materials and delivery approaches 4. Pilot test tools, methods and outreach 5. Disseminate across 12 state region Not clear yet what resources will be needed!

8 Key Issues Examine the financial, production, and environmental outcomes of short-term management decisions and longterm investment planning under different climate scenarios. Impact/interaction of weather and climate on: Spatial and temporal variability of yields Nitrogen management Fieldwork opportunities Planting date End of season crop dry-down rates Cost effectiveness of irrigation and tiling

9 Current Work Model the impact of climate and farm management on crop productivity and profits Using past and future climate scenarios Understand beliefs and concerns about climate change and willingness to use climate information Surveys and focus groups Models and Data Decision Support Tools Stakeholder Input

10 Crop Modeling and Data Analysis Objective 1: What are the contributions of anomalous weather to crop variability and implications for future management options? Develop an ensemble of crop models on a 4-km grid, Midwest DSSAT, Hybrid-Maize, ISAM Range of agronomic outcomes for various climate scenarios (past & future) Impact of climate and management on productivity and profits Agroclimatic trends analysis ( ) Regional ENSO analysis NASS field work days climatology trends, patterns, future scenarios Effects of crop mix, climate, etc. on capital investment decisions (case studies)

11 Climate-Based Decision Calendar for Corn Uniquely visualizes time of year and lead-time of climate forecasts relevant to ag decisions Recognizes that climate forecasts can affect Long term investment decisions if the environment is changing Short term management decisions if uncertainty is increasing

12 Climate-based decision calendar for corn Takle et al., in prep.

13 Social Science Tasks Objective 2: Understand the use and value of climate information in agricultural decision making, determine effective dissemination methods 1. Producer and advisor climate needs assessment surveys 2. Focus groups with stakeholders 3. Network analysis (flow of climate information through agricultural communities)

14 Climate Needs Assessment Surveys Producer Survey CS-CAP partnership Mail survey of +19,000 farmers 22 HUC6 watersheds, 60% of US corn production Data joined to NASS Ag Census Advisor Survey Web-based survey of 8,000+ advisors All advisors in pilot states, Extension in 12 states Crop consultants, Extension, bankers/lawyers, agro-business, state and federal, crop associations, etc.

15 Survey Question Topics Type and timing of farm management strategies Influence and use of weather/climate information Risk management strategies, roles, responsibilities Influential information sources Climate change concerns and beliefs

16 Percent Influence of Weather/Climate Info 100 Percent who said that each type of weather/climate information had a "moderate" or "strong" influence on their decisions/advice Producers Advisors Historical weather trends Weather data for the past 12 months Current weather conditions 1-7 day forecasts 8-14 day outlooks Monthly or seasonal outlooks Annual or longer term outlooks

17 Percent Use of Decision Support Resources 70 Percent who said they use the following weather-related decision-support resources Producers Advisors 0

18 Percent of Advisors who consider weather/climate information when giving advice on... Propane purchases Fuel purchases for irrigation Pesticide purchases Fertilizer purchases Irrigation systems Agricultural drainage systems Cover crops Crop rotations and field assignments Crop insurance Seed purchases Fall tillage Seeding rate IPM Conservation practices Planting/harvest schedule Timing of nitrogen Percent For all decisions, 13% - 19% of advisors said they would use weather/climate info if the information was better

19 Willingness to Use Climate Information 100% 80% 60% 40% Agree Uncertain Disagree 20% 0% Producers Advisors Producer Question: I am willing to use seasonal climate forecasts to help me make decisions about agricultural practices Advisor Question: I would like to provide advice based on climate forecasts

20 Confidence in Ability to Use Climate Info 100% 80% 60% 40% Agree Uncertain Disagree 20% 0% Producers Advisors Producer Question: I am confident in my ability to apply weather forecasts and information in my crop related decisions Advisor Question: I am confident in my ability to apply weather forecasts and information in my crop related advice

21 Please indicate how influential the following groups and individuals are when you make decisions about agricultural practices and strategies (producer survey). (16 options) 100 Family, chemical dealers, and seed dealers are most influential Influence of Extension is mixed Strong Influence Moderate Influence Slight Influence No Influence No contact 0

22 Least Trusted Most Trusted Advisors Trusted Info Sources How much do you trust or distrust the following agencies, organizations, and groups as sources of information about climate change and its potential impacts? (15 options) Distrust Neither trust nor distrust Trust 1. University Extension 4.2% 14.8% 81.1% 2. Scientists 10.9% 19.6% 69.6% 3. Farm groups 11.7% 43.1% 45.2% 4. Family and friends 7.1% 49.7% 43.2% Distrust Neither trust nor distrust Trust 1. The mainstream news media 64.9% 26.9% 8.2% 2. Online social media, such as blogs, Twitter, etc. 64.4% 31.8% 3.8% 3. Radio talk show hosts 63.1% 31.6% 5.2% 4. Environmental organizations 55.7% 26.3% 18%

23 There is increasing discussion about climate change and its potential impacts. Please select the statement that best reflects your beliefs about climate change. Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by human activities Climate change is occurring, and it is caused equally by natural changes in the environment and human activities Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment There is not sufficient evidence to know with certainty whether climate change is occurring or not Climate change is not occurring Producers 8% 33% 25% 31% 4% Advisors 12.6% 37% 24.9% 23.3% 2.3%

24 Percent Concern about climate-related risks Percent "Concerned" or "Very Concerned" about potential problems Modeling results suggest long-term trend of increasing precipitation and a net reduction of drought-related risk for growers Producers Advisors Increased flooding Longer droughts Increased weeds Increased insects More crop disease More frequent extreme rains More saturated soils Increased heat stress Increased nutrient loss Increased soil erosion

25 Beliefs about Climate Change Adaptation Producer and Advisor Question: It is important for farmers to adapt to climate change to ensure the long-term success of U.S. agriculture 100% 80% 60% 40% Agree Uncertain Disagree 20% 0% Producers Advisors

26 Uncertainty in Responding to Climate Change 100% 80% 60% 40% Agree Uncertain Disagree 20% 0% Producers Advisors Producer Question: There s too much uncertainty about the impacts of climate change to justify changing my agricultural practices and strategies Advisor Question: There s too much uncertainty about the impacts of climate change to justify advising others to change their agricultural practices and strategies

27 Results Summary Challenges: Demonstrate utility of weather/climate info Develop info that fits perceived needs and that is usable Opportunities: Concern about climate-related risks Willingness to use weather/climate info Some confidence in ability to apply weather/climate info Need to recognize and respond to differences in climate change beliefs in our tools, training, and communication Climate change beliefs influence perceived climate risks, willingness to use climate info, risk management, trusted info sources, etc.

28 Focus Groups Surveys alone are not enough! Input on survey results Explore more complex questions Listen to their concerns and needs Test newly developed resources Producers and advisors in pilot states Ongoing co-production groups in IN, NE Farmers, private advisors, public advisors One-time sessions Kickoff in Jan/Feb 2013 Pilot session held in July 2012

29 Number of Votes Pilot Focus Group Results Voting Results for Decision Tools/Topics of Greatest Interest Decision Tool/Topic

30 Pilot Focus Group Results Other Findings: Farmers have difficulty finding weather/climate, soil, agronomic, marketing, and other consumer data they need. Interested in a website that consolidates links into a single place Not interested in receiving more Farmers had a strong interest in global and regional conditions and events, in additional to local information. Specifically mentioned Brazil, China, and Russia Prefer information presented in tables, maps, and limited text

31 What s Next? Continue developing and testing models (ongoing) Impact of tile drainage, irrigation use, crop variety, and nitrogen application on yields under climate scenarios Stakeholder engagement (ongoing) Focus groups, Native American producer survey, network analysis Tool prototypes (year 3-4) Training materials (year 3-4) Program evaluation (year 4) Regional expansion workshop (year 5)

32

33 Thank you! Michigan State University: Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, Jim Hilker South Dakota State University: Dennis Todey University of Illinois: Jim Angel, Beth Hall, Steve Hilberg, Atul Jain University of Michigan: Maria Lemos, Yun-Jia Lo University of Minnesota: Tom Bartholomay, Whitney Meredith Purdue University: Linda Prokopy (Lead), Corinne Alexander, Larry Biehl, Otto Doering, Bruce Erickson, Ani Elias, Sajeeve E.M., Patrick Freeland, Ben Gramig, Olivia Kellner, Xing Liu, Amber Mase, Dev Niyogi, Paul Preckel, Carol Song, Melissa Widhalm, Lan Zhao Iowa State University: Roger Elmore, Chad Hart, Jean McGuire, Lois Wright Morton, Gene Takle, Adam Wilke University of Missouri: Pat Guinan, Ray Massey University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Juliana Dai, Tonya Haigh, Cody Knutson, Tapan Pathak, Martha Shulski University of Wisconsin: Tom Blewett, Rebecca Power, John Kriva This project is supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant no from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.