ASKBILL: to predict your livestock s future A tool to enhance sheep wellbeing and productivity

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1 Introduction ASKBILL: to predict your livestock s future A tool to enhance sheep wellbeing and productivity The most economically important endemic diseases that impact on sheep wellbeing and productivity in the Australian sheep industry include neonatal mortality, internal parasites, dystocia, weaner ill-thrift and mortality and flystrike. These conditions can be the end result of a number of complex factors of which nutrition, body condition score, live weight and weather stress are of key importance. Combined, these diseases cost the sheep industry more than $1.5 billion per annum as a result of production loss, costs of prevention and costs of treatment (Lane et al. 2015). Effective management of these health challenges relies on prediction and early detection in order to implement preventative actions and timely treatment. When management tactics rely on detecting the appearance of visual symptoms, the effects of subclinical disease will have already had a negative impact on wellbeing and productivity. The alternative approach of using forecasts of pasture availability, animal performance and disease risks to set management plans and take preventative action consistently results in benefits from better productivity and improved wellbeing. ASKBILL is a web-based program that has been developed to provide accurate forecasts to help sheep producers better manage the sheep production system. It represents a new approach that brings together farm data, information on weather and genetics with industry and scientific knowledge to predict pasture growth, animal performance and risks of flystrike, worm infection and weather stress (Figure 1). Figure 1: Schematic of the flow of data and information through predictive analytical models that underpin the ASKBILL program to provide alerts and what-if options to assist management decisions. 1

2 ASKBILL has been designed with the end-user in mind. The amount of information that needs to be entered is kept to a minimum. Wherever possible, data is accessed automatically from existing sources such as the Bureau of Meteorology. The program outputs are also easy to interpret to help make better farm management decisions. How does ASKBILL work? High-speed computing and reduced costs of data storage have created the opportunity to utilise information from multiple sources to achieve accurate predictions of climate patterns and the implications for grazing livestock. ASKBILL runs on a series of large computers with access to Bureau of Meteorology data including historic records, daily records and forecasts that extend to 3 months. The climate data is stored for each 5x5 km gridpoint for the main sheep producing regions of Australia and is therefore relevant for individual farms. These computers can also store individual farm data such as soil-type, pasture information and details of the livestock including their current status, and planned management events such as joining and shearing. Details of the genetic potential of livestock will be incorporated through links with the RamSelect program and inputs from genomic flock profiling and ram team information. Models run on the computers re-calculate the predictions each day, or on demand, to account for new climate data and any changes in farm information. ASKBILL doesn t try to tell producers how to run their business but provides prompts and alerts whenever the models predict changes due to the actual seasonal conditions that could have implications for the wellbeing and productivity of the flock. ASKBILL provides forecasts up to 90 days out for the following information: The amount and quality of pasture across a whole farm or for specific areas of particular interest Live weight and body condition score for each stock class within the sheep flock The level of risk from worms and sheep blowfly The risk from extreme cold and heat While predictions are automatically updated daily with new climate forecasts (on 5 km grids) they can also be updated with information entered by producers about pastures, animals, management events and treatments. Alerts of risk will be sent to producers using and SMS to notify when attention may be required. In addition to the forecasts, ASKBILL will use climate data from the last 30 years to calculate long-term average values for pasture, live weight, body condition score, animal health and exposure, allowing planning as well as comparison of the future with performance from the past. The models have also been designed to provide specific estimates of: Stocking rates to reach pasture targets Pasture to support a desired number of animals Supplementary feeding rates to reach live weight and body condition score targets Changes in the risk of worm infection and fly strike following treatments Later versions of ASKBILL will be able to use individual animal data, stored in farm management software, in combination with farm, climate and genetic information to rank animals. This ranked tag list can then be used for drafting of selected animals for targeted management or treatment. 2

3 Value from using ASKBILL The key question driving the need for a new approach to help sheep producers better manage their sheep production system is the adequacy of current approaches to manage wellbeing and productivity. A lot of research has been undertaken to investigate the costs and benefits of programs designed to achieve improved wellbeing and productivity. Results of some of these studies are relevant to the improvements anticipated to flow from using information from ASKBILL and key results are summarised below. The project: Integrated Parasite Management in Sheep, demonstrated that in summer rainfall regions, the annual cost of worms under typical management was $11/ewe. Providing extra information in the form of drench efficacy, worm tests, live weight, condition score, sheep genetics and grazing management reduced this annual cost to $6/ewe ( The Lifetime Ewe Management program ( aspx) has demonstrated the annual cost of not managing ewe condition score to meet recognised targets is $3 $5/ewe. A review of the potential for new technologies to improve decision making in southern livestock industries (MLA Code: B.GSM.0004; Henry, et al. 2012) identified 10 areas where better information would benefit decision making. Of these, information to aid with allocation of pasture feed and animal production were estimated to offer annual on-farm benefits of $81 $96/ha. Recent modelling indicates that the annual cost of treatment, prevention and production loss due to flystrike is approximately $7.50/sheep (Lane et al. 2015). Decision making about improved management practices to reduce the risk of flystrike requires intelligence about sheep susceptibility and forecast seasonal conditions. ASKBILL has been designed to address these needs and uses daily updates of climate forecast and on farm pasture, livestock, management and treatment information to provide forecasts for pastures, live weight, condition score, risk of worm infection and flystrike and extreme weather events. It is a truly predictive approach to help sheep producers manage the wellbeing and productivity of their sheep. ASKBILL has the added benefit of reducing the costs associated with manual monitoring while, at the same time, improving wellbeing and productivity outcomes. How to get started with ASKBILL? Access to the program ASKBILL will be available on a trial basis (B-version) from 22 May A limited number of trial licences will be available at a cost of $50 for a six-month period. During this time the Sheep CRC will continue to improve the user interface, in response to feedback from producers and researchers using the B-version, and the scope of the analytical models. In November 2017 the commercial site will be launched with provision for multiple licences. Attached to this summary about ASKBILL is a description of the information that will need to be entered in order to be able to monitor areas of your property, segments of your sheep flock or the whole farm and whole flock. It is recommended that a start is made with property information and then just one or two classes of the flock e.g. a ewe flock, or a mob of weaned lambs together with details of the area of the farm where they are grazing. This approach will allow understanding and confidence to develop before tackling all classes of sheep. Henry, D., Shovelton, J., de Fegely, C., Manning, R., Beattie, L., & Trotter, M. (2012). Final report. Potential for information technologies to improve decision making for the southern livestock industries (Vol. B.GSM.0004). Lane, J., Jubb, T., Shephard, R., Webb-Ware, J., & Fordyce, G. (2015). Priority list of endemic diseases for the red meat industries (Vol. B.AHE.0010) 3

4 Using ASKBILL Location The first step in establishing an ASKBILL account is to identify the location of the property and this is achieved by entering the street address and postcode and then confirming location using Google maps. The location is used to identify the climate data, latitude, longitude and elevation that are used by the analytical models to inform the predictions for your property. Farm area and pasture and soils description The second step is to describe the available grazing area of the farm and the pasture type, pasture quality, soil fertility and type. This information is used to inform predictions of pasture growth, quality and animal performance. Users enter the percent of the farm area occupied by different pasture types. Pasture type describes the main growth period for pastures and includes (i) winter/spring active such as ryegrass, phalaris, fescue, brome and forage crops; and (ii) summer active such as many native perennial grasses, subtropical and tropical grasses, fescue and lucerne. Pasture quality is set using the slider bars and relates to the digestibility of the pasture in its active growing phase. The range of the winter active pasture is 50 80% dry matter digestibility and 40 70% for summer active pastures. Soil fertility describes the level of major and minor plant available soil nutrients and other characteristics determined in a soil test. The slider covers the range from low to high fertility; where there remain no soil chemical restrictions to pasture growth. Soil type is set using the slider bar and relates principally to soil texture as determined by the relative proportion of sand, silt and clay particles. 4

5 Livestock inventory and details The third step is to enter the livestock inventory for the farm and the details about the major classes of sheep (e.g. Merino ewes, XB ewes, weaners, hoggets). This information is used to predict animal performance and pasture intake and susceptibility to flystrike. It is important to specify all stock (sheep and cattle) that are currently on the property to enable the models to properly account for pasture intake in the prediction of pasture availability. Users enter the number of animals in the stock class, current live weight, live weight at condition score 3.0, weaning rate and age, breech and body wrinkle, breech cover, dag score and fleece rot. Future targets for live weight and condition score can be set for ASKBILL to track progress against. Management events and fly and worm treatments The next step is to set the date for the major management events such as crutching, shearing, joining, pregnancy scanning and weaning for each stock class. The timing and details of fly and worm treatments can be entered against each stock class. This information is used to determine risk from worms and flystrike and extreme weather events and may be used in later versions to provide alerts ahead of planned management events and to remind of animal health tests and withhold intervals. Supplements Details about supplement type, rates and dates of feeding stock classes are recorded. Users can choose among cereals, protein seeds, hay or silage to use standard feeding values or enter the reported feed quality. This information is used by the animal growth model to predict live weight and body condition score and to advise on rates of feeding to attain production targets. Rainfall Climate data (historical and 90 day forecasts) are updated daily from the Bureau of Meteorology on a 5 km grid resolution. As rainfall is an important element for the analytical models, users have the option to enter their own measured rainfall for their location. Monitored areas and mobs To account for differences in pasture and soils within a farm, a user has the option to establish Monitored Areas. A Monitored Area is a set area, which can be a paddock or a group of paddocks, where the Monitored Mob(s) will graze. A farm may have a number of Monitored Areas (for example, sown paddocks, native paddocks, lucerne). The mobs grazing in these Monitor Areas are referred to as Monitored Mobs and this provides the flexibility of being able to have predictions for different stock classes (for example, twin bearing ewes, low condition score ewes, weaners). Users can adjust area, pasture and soil details within each Monitored Area and livestock details within each Monitored Mob. Forecasts of feed budgets, animal performance and risks Having customised farm and Monitored Area/Mob details, the analytical models use this information in combination with climate data to predict pasture growth, animal nutritional requirements, performance and the risks of flystrike, worm infection and extreme weather events. The first screen provides a summary of predictions at the property level as well as for Monitored areas of specified mobs. For each aspect of production and risk coloured icons show different levels of attention needed. Green, indicates no immediate attention needed while orange and red icons indicate moderate and high levels of risk. The example below indicates the property feed target has a high risk of not being met, while the live weight and condition score targets for ewes have a moderate risk of not being met. All other factors are indicated as low risk. 5

6 Detailed analyses To view a detailed analysis of the parameter associated with any icon just click on the icon. The example below shows pasture availability. The display indicates the long-term (last 30 years) average (LTA, green line), the current (blue line) and the forecast for the next 90 days. Predicting future feed availability relies on a weather forecast which has an associated probability. The forecast feed availability displays the median feed availability (50 th percentile; the midpoint of all forecasts) and provides the 25 th percentile (dry) and 75 th percentile (wet) estimates as the shaded areas. The actual feed availability over the next 90 days is most likely to fall within the 25 th to 75 th percentile range. In the example below, pasture availability was above the LTA during August-November, then fell well below the LTA due to low rainfall before recovering during the autumn period. The median forecast for the next 90 days indicates pasture availability staying above the LTA. forecast period The risk of flystrike has the same display format as for pasture availability and risk bands (low, moderate, high) are superimposed. The risk of flystrike over the last year (blue line) has been greater than expected from the LTA (green line) and forecast risk is low with the transition to cooler temperature during late autumn. Other displays are provided for the other indicators of wellbeing and productivity and these follow the same format as discussed for pasture and flystrike. 6

7 Daily updates The analytical models providing the forecasts are updated daily with new climate data and any changes provided by users of ASKBILL. Users can enter their estimates or measurements of pasture weight, live weight and condition score at any time and these values are used to adjust the models for the particular farm. The updating happens automatically and when risk is detected, alerts are sent using and SMS to users and other nominated people. Any changes to input data are date based, so that historical information and conditions are not lost from the calculations. Conclusion ASKBILL represents a transformational change for the livestock industry. It represents a new approach that brings together farm data, weather and industry knowledge to inform analytical models that predict pasture growth, animal performance, flystrike, worm infection and weather stress at the mob and individual sheep level. The predictions are customised to a farm or a Monitored Area and are updated daily in response to climate data and changes to pasture, livestock, management or treatments on the farm. Today s prediction of tomorrow will become yesterday s history as ASKBILL moves from forecast to recorded events. The beta version will deliver the essence of ASKBILL s value and the improvements planned for later versions will continue the transformation. 7