Obtaining and Using USDA Market and Production Reports

Transcription

1 Obtaining and Using USDA Market and Production Reports Curriculum Guide I. Goals and Objectives A. To create an awareness for the role of information in commodity markets. B. Describe pertinent market and production reports for crops and livestock. C. Determine where to gather market and production reports. II. Description/Highlights A. In a perfect market, all market participants would have the same timely and accurate information outlining supply and demand. However, a perfect market does not exist. Participants that have superior information hold a distinct marketing advantage over those who do not have the same information. B. Information can be divided into either public information or private information. Public information is commonly available from USDA and Land-grant universities. Private commodity firms have started gathering data and making the same type of reports. However, in order to have access to those private reports, interested persons typically have to pay a subscription or membership fee to the firm. C. Often, the impact that a USDA report has is not measured from the magnitude change from the previous report, but how it differs from the industry guesses. Therefore, it is important to factor in pre-report private estimates when gauging the impact of a USDA report. D. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report is released monthly and current estimates and projections are reported in four primary supply/demand categories: production, exports, domestic use and ending stocks. At any point in time, USDA will be reporting estimates for more than one crop year. The stocks to use ratio can be calculated using these figures. This ratio is highly correlated to price movements. 8/98 Page 1

2 E. The Crop Production report is published monthly and reports estimates by state the acreage, yields, and production of various commodities. Important supplements to this report include Winter Wheat and Rye Seeding, normally released around the tenth of January, Prospective Plantings, normally released near the end of March, and Acreage, normally released near the end of June. F. The Grain Stocks report is released on a quarterly basis and details the quantity of grain in storage in the U.S. The estimates are based on survey data. Stocks of grain are divided into on-farm and off-farm stocks. G. The U.S. Export Sales report is released weekly and outlines export sales during a particular week and outstanding sales. Outstanding sales are defined as grain which has been contracted but not yet shipped to foreign buyers. Normally, this report becomes very important after a crop has been determined, or near the end of a commodity s marketing year. H. There are other crop reports that users need to be aware of. The Crop Progress report outlines crop plantings and conditions across the country. USDA begins releasing this report in April with the last release at the end of the calender year. I. The Cattle Inventory report is published twice a year. The first report is released around January 30 th and reflects U.S. cattle herd dynamics as of the first of the year. A second report is released around July 20 th and reflects herd dynamics as of July 1. J. The Cattle on Feed report is a monthly report that is released around the fifteenth of each month. This report estimates the total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements in feedlots, marketings, and other disappearances. K. Livestock Slaughter reports animals that have been slaughtered in the U.S. This is a monthly report and provides the number of head slaughtered, live weight, and dressed weight of cattle and calves. L. The Cold Storage report contains estimates of the regional and national end of the month stocks of meats, dairy products, poultry products, and fruits and vegetables in public, private, and semi-private refrigerated warehouses. This is a monthly report and is normally released around the 20 th of the month. M. USDA provides several means of obtaining these reports. These include over the internet, subscriptions, fax or by mail. Some of these methods will cost the user. 8/98 Page 2

3 III. Potential Speakers A. County Extension Agents B. Extension Economists C. Commodity Brokers IV. Review Questions A. Why do producers need to be aware of USDA reports? Answer: Producers can use these reports to gauge when they need to price their commodities. B. The USDA Acreage report is normally released when? Answer: Around the end of June. C. When is the Cattle Inventory report released? Answer: It is released twice a year, once near the end of January and once near the end of July. V. For More Details Any USDA report Private commodity reports No other publications at this time. 8/98 Page 3

4 Obtaining and Using USDA Market and Production Reports! Why is information important? L The market will trade based on supply and demand information whether factual or false. L Information equality seldom exists. L Too much information can also be a bad thing.! Two Types of Information L Private L Public 8/98 Page 1

5 Obtaining and Using USDA Market and Production Reports! USDA Crop Reports L World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) L Crop Production T Wheat and Rye Seeding T Prospective Planting T Acreage L Grain Stocks L U.S. Export Sales L Others 8/98 Page 2

6 Obtaining and Using USDA Market and Production Reports! USDA Livestock Reports L Cattle Inventory Report L Cattle on Feed L Livestock Slaughter L Cold Storage Report! Where to Get the Information L Internet L L Fax L Mail L Other Report Services 8/98 Page 3