Developing Climate-Smart Adaptation Strategies for the Sagebrush Landscape Gunnison Basin, Colorado

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1 Developing Climate-Smart Adaptation Strategies for the Sagebrush Landscape Gunnison Basin, Colorado Gunnison Climate Working Group Betsy Neely, TNC & Renee Rondeau, CNHP 4 th Gunnison Sage-grouse Summit March 10, 2016

2 Ecological-Climate-Social Systems CLIMATE SYSTEM Ecosystems Species Functions Processes ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS Project Focus SOCIAL SYSTEM Knowledge Livelihoods Governance Culture Values

3 Objectives 1. Understand social-ecological vulnerabilities 2. Create scenarios & models to facilitate decision-making 3. Identify barriers & opportunities for adaptation 4. Develop actionable adaptation strategies ***

4 Adaptation Strategies Management efforts designed to help nature & people prepare for & adjust to climate change & associated impacts. Build ecosystem resilience by restoring hydrologic function of wet meadows using simple rock structures to help Gunnison sage-grouse adapt to climate change

5 rtain es in Climate c ons ystem and Species erva on Southwest Colorado & STUDY REGIONS inable Human uni es Project Area Upper Gunnison River Basin

6 Sagebrush Landscape Spruce-Fir Landscape

7 3 Climate Scenarios for 2035 Climate models using 72 models 2 emissions scenarios Hot & Dry Feast & Famine Warm & Wet Imtiaz Rangwala, NOAA, WWA, CU

8 Ecological Response Model: Feast & Famine Scenario Wyoming sagebrush is likely to transform to non-native grassland

9 Spatial Ecological Response Model Utah Juniper: Hot & Dry Scenario

10 Synthesis of ecological & biophysical projections 3 Narrative Scenarios

11 Social Science 22 Stakeholder interviews 4 Focus groups The Feast & Famine Scenario would be extremely challenging to manage for because [in the Hot & Dry], at least you have a set trend & you know which way things are going. Where this, its just bouncing like a yo-yo (Focus Group Participant, 2014)

12 Adaptation Workshops Identify impacts Brainstorm potential actions Develop goals & objectives In-depth social-ecological strategies

13 Sagebrush Goal Protect & maintain large interconnected, functional & resilient sagebrush landscapes that support viable populations of obligate species, livelihoods & ecosystem services in the face of climate change.

14 Selected Objectives -- By 2035: Protect or conserve sagebrush landscape climate refugia & linkages for obligate species Increase the grass & forb component of sage communities & maintain sage cover to improve habitat for obligate species Reduce the impact of invasive species (cheatgrass) so that sagebrush systems are more resilient to climate change.

15 Top Impacts & Strategies Across 3 Climate Scenarios Impacts Habitat conversion Decreased sagebrush condition due to drought Increased invasives Decreased wildlife Sagebrush die-off Reduced grazing capacity Altered succession Aspen mortality Sagebrush die-off & shifts Strategies Identify & protect/conserve refugia Proactive treatment for resilience Assist & allow for transformation

16 Identify & Protect/Conserve Refugia Outcomes/Actions Refugia & linkages are identified Refugia are protected &/or managed for resilience Reduced Impacts Reduced conversion Improved condition

17 Assist & Allow Transformation Outcomes/actions to improve sagebrush condition in face of drought BMPs are adopted to facilitate resilience & transformation Develop climate smart seed mixes Invasive species & undesirable natives are reduced Apply weed & mechanical treatments

18 Next Steps Refine strategies & link to spatial models Wyoming sagebrush Final workshop Report & manuscripts

19 Closing Thoughts Sagebrush landscape is changing Scenario planning helps identify climate-smart strategies Collaboration is key & gives us hope for the future!

20 Thanks to Gunnison Climate Working Group & Partners!