Transitioning Agriculture to the Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Benjamin Augeri ATS 320 2/14/2014 Transitioning Agriculture to the Changing Climate Introduction - Purpose Over the past few decades climate change has become a concerning topic of discussion. Partly this increase in awareness has been due to the possibility of recovering measurable data. Scientists can now produce statistical models predicting the altering climate. This paper will (a) highlight and define general regional changes in the United States climate, (b) implications the changing climate has on agriculture (c) provide favorable adjustments that increase blueberry yield capitalizing on the changing climate. Abstract In previous United Nation conventions, the topic of global warming and the changing climate has been met with fear and skepticism. Scientists that research the climate suggest that the climate is changing at an alarming rate. Predicted figures of the increase in Earth s global temperature and Earth s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration made by projected models are already being surpassed. The economic impacts vary by location, but the agricultural industry as a whole is being affected worldwide. A look at the United States, shows the weather over the past few years has broken many records. With the growing seasons and the lands climate being altered, farmers should begin growing in places not previously ideal for agriculture, or begin growing non-native crops for the local region; this could produce higher crop yields. Fruit growers have to be particular tuned in to the changing climate, as fruit growth is one of the most sensitive crops to temperature change. In these locations, blueberries will flourish or falter depending on the change in climate. Three Regions with Climate Change Over the last few decades, states in the Northeast have experienced measurable and noticeable changes in its climate. The annual temperature rose by 1.1 Celsius (2 Fahrenheit) and the average winter temperature by 2.2 Celsius (4 Fahrenheit) ( Northeast Impacts & Adaptations ). Heavy precipitation events (snow and rain) have increased in magnitude and in frequency. The majority of winter precipitation falls as rain, these trends are expected to continue ( Northeast Impacts & Adaptations ). Due to carbon dioxide emissions in Hartford, Philadelphia, and Boston to name a few, cities are experiencing multiple days reaching 55.6 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit) ( Northeast Impacts & Adaptations ). The average temperatures in the Northeast are projected to increase and precipitation patterns are projected to undergo continual change.

2 While other regions such as the Pacific Northwest indicate increased temperatures by 0.83 Celsius (1.5 Fahrenheit) over the last 100 years and projections indicate annual temperature increase another 0.28 Celsius (0.5 Fahrenheit) by 2020 ( Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, 2011). Pacific Northwest annual precipitation is projected to remain constant. The hydrology is affected from the changes in temperature, which decreases the snow pack in the Cascade Range. This in turns affects stream flow and water quality throughout the Pacific Northwest region. The warmer temperatures will result in more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow in the mid-elevation basins. With less snow accumulation, streams will have higher winter stream flows and earlier spring snow melts, thus seasonal stream flow timing will shift significantly in sensitive watersheds ( Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, 2011). California, which relies on the cascade snowmelt and precipitation, will see significant water shortages as summer nears. The Midwest has been experiencing variation in extremes over the past decade. Average annual temperatures are increasing and heat waves are becoming more frequent. Cold periods are becoming rare and snow and ice is arriving later in the fall and melting is beginning earlier in the spring ( Midwest Impacts & Adaptation ). The earlier spring melting creates flooding and heavy downpours occur twice as often, this precipitation increase also leads to increased flooding ( Midwest Impacts & Adaptation ). The last three decades have been the wettest in over a century in the Midwest ( Midwest Impacts & Adaptation ). Average temperatures in the summer are expected to increase by 0.56 Celsius (1 Fahrenheit) over the next decade ( Midwest Impacts & Adaptation ). In late summer and early fall the Midwest has more frequent heat waves and droughts. Implications on Agriculture With these changing temperatures and precipitation patterns in the Northeastern climate, changes will be needed in the agricultural sector. This climate change is going to affect the types of crops cultivated in the Northeast. Many major crop fields in the region are becoming unsuitable for growing certain types of crops: apples, blueberries, grain, and soybeans ( Northeast Impacts & Adaptations ). In Cape Cod, a peninsula in Massachusetts, cranberries are a staple, which due to increasing average temperature will no longer grow ( Northeast Impacts & Adaptations ). The region could be transitioning into a longer growing season for other crops. With the increase in annual average temperature and the earlier snowmelt means that agriculture in the low-mid elevation basins will be affected during the planting and growing season ( Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, 2011). Many parts of this area relies on snow melt to fill reservoirs during the summer, as winters and summers warm up, this snow melt occurs earlier in the growing season which leads to spring floods and low summer supplies (Wander M., 2010, p. 1). With less water to hydrate crops, limits will be set on fewer acres being planted or an adverse affect on crop growth (Wander M., 2010, p. 1). Agriculture in the Pacific Northwest and California will need to alter the growing process or switch to alternative growing. Decreasing supplies of water for irrigation threaten Northwest agriculture, mainly the production of apple and other fruit trees that require large amounts of water to flourish. In Agricultural Water Pricing:

3 United States, Dennis Wichelns describes that prices pertaining to irrigation water vary by geographic location. In western states irrigation provides most of the crop water requirements; irrigation costs and prices are rising due to a combination of increasing scarcity, changes in public preferences (policy) regarding water allocation among competing uses, and increasing awareness of climate change (Wichelns, 2010, p.6). In summary, the Pacific Northwest s warming climate causes snowmelt to occur earlier which will limit water supplies as summer nears causing farmers difficulty with irrigation. The changing climate deceivingly helps increase yield of field crops in the Midwest. The impacts the changing climate has on the Midwest leave greater chance up to unpredictable weather on the success of the farming season. Water is in sufficient availability through increased precipitation and the growing season is increased through the annual rising temperatures that create an early spring melt and late fall freeze (Midwest). Crops have the ability to grow larger and healthier more than ever before. The deception comes from the variable extremes of weather that challenge farmers. Extreme climatic events such as storms with high winds, flooding, heavy rains, hail, droughts, hard late or early frosts can be responsible for sever or total crop loss according to John Reilly in the publication Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation on page 432. Some weather driven scenarios facilitate an environment for harmful crop destroying insects (Midwest). From the University of Illinois Environmental Change Institute, planting would frequently be delayed, with shorter intervals of dry soil in the spring and for fruits and vegetables it would be more difficult to get into fields for harvest, the crops would likely have more disease problems and a shorter shelf life (Wander M., 2010, p. 1-2). Thus if these problems continued to increase farmers may try growing other crops or find alternative ways of growing. Adjustments Favoring Blueberries Agriculture is sensitive to climate instability; fruit trees and bushes are among the most sensitive crops affected by these changes in weather, mainly to late frosts (Kalra, 2007, pp (10)). While the public thinks of climate change as a negative impact, blueberry farmers could see it alternatively. A shortened winter with later fall freezing and earlier ground thawing in the spring facilitates a longer growing season (Kalra, 2007, pp (10)). Warmer climate patterns that increase the growing season allow for berries to grow larger and healthier than in previous years. In one region discussed there are irrigation and water difficulties (Kalra, 2007, pp (10)). Extreme weather events such as droughts, extreme heat, storms, or sporadic fog negatively affect crops in another region. The last region discussed benefits from the longer growing season. These events are the main climate change impacts faced by the agricultural sector. Blueberries are among the most sensitively grown fruits in agriculture. Blueberries require humid climates with winter chills (above -20 Fahrenheit), mild summers (below 101 Fahrenheit), and acidic soils ph (Tips). New breeds of blueberry climate adaptation bushes allow them to be grown in coastal areas, lower chill areas, and warmer areas but the bushes are still sensitive to temperature ranges and constrained (Tips). With a keen focus on temperature, availability of water, and weather extreme variability in the

4 Pacific Northwest and California, Northeast, and Midwest regions, blueberry growing can be altered to capitalize on the changing climate. (United States, 2013) Released by the USDA, this figure shows the blueberry growth geographic distribution in the United States and is derived from the 2007 Census of Agriculture data. For the last few decades the current blueberry growth distribution has remained unchanged given the same distribution of blueberry areas from the annual censuses of agriculture from the USDA (Recent). Traditionally the main regions of blueberry growth are the Pacific Northwest, Northeast, Midwest, and the South as seen above. In the past climate, the figure shows that high yields of blueberries have been successful in Washington, Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, New Jersey, and North Carolina. However, the shifting in regional climate is altering the success of growth in key blueberry growing regions. In the Northeast, the increasing temperatures and shortening winter would allow for a longer blueberry-growing season. Plants could receive proper amounts of irrigation due the high amounts of precipitation. It is likely few to no droughts will occur in the Northeast. As long as blueberries are not grown in low-lying areas that would concentrate possible flooding or over hydrated soils, blueberries can be grown effectively. The Pacific Northwest is a good temperate region for blueberry growth. Although water shortages may hinder the growth of blueberries as summer nears and irrigation becomes a challenge. Irrigation becomes a challenge because the agricultural sector is one of the last to receive water allotment due to changing policy for competing water uses (Wichelns, 2010, p.6). Thus, the matter of irrigation becomes a matter of policy in the region. The policy defines allotment of water for each of the different uses. As the amount of water flowing decreases from the Cascade Range and thus irrigation will become more

5 expensive due to lack of supply. As irrigation becomes more expensive the cost of blueberries will rise or farmers will need to seek alternative growing methods through simple economics. Midwestern climate change shows increasing danger to the agriculture sector including blueberries. Although the Midwest has one of the longest growing seasons for blueberries, there is an increased extreme weather variability occurring. Today, breeding programs exist around the world that have expanded the range of commercial growing regions, thus different variety of bushes can withstand higher temperature days and a variable humidity level (Handley D., Blueberry Basics). Droughts and late winter or early spring freezes that occur in March and April greatly hinder a blueberry bush. Apples, pears, cherries, and many other tree fruits require winter chilling periods for buds to set but can suffer near-total loss of the fruit crop if late frosts damage the blossoms (Reilly J., 2013, p. 432). A blueberry bush has blossoms that act the exact same way as an apple or pear tree blossom; late frosts can ruin entire crops of blueberry bushes. A drought leading up into summer and harvest season will starve a bush of the necessary nutrients ultimately causing a thirsty and unhealthy bush. The yield will be small and the berries will be lacking in size and girth. For farmers depending on blueberry crop yields, success is limited annually, due to the gamble each farmer takes with unpredictable weather and her variable weather of extremes. Conclusion The examination of three regions affected by climate change showed different implications on agriculture. The shift in climate change in the Midwest can expect variability of success from season to season. In other words, growing in the Midwest is a risk. In years with no extreme weather (heat waves, droughts, high winds, flooding), blueberries will grow bigger and healthier than in previous years, but in years with increased erratic weather, blueberry yields will be lower. In the Pacific Northwest blueberries will become increasingly harder to grow due to water shortages as summer approaches. Consumers should expect nutrient poor blueberries lacking in size and girth; unless, the farmer has alternative methods of recovering water for irrigation. In the Northeast as annual temperature rise, the region becomes more suitable for higher yields of blueberries. The Northeast, while still enduring winter chills, has a shortened winter as warming begins earlier in the spring. Consumers in the Northeast region should expect healthy, nutrient rich, well-hydrated (properly irrigated) blueberries. The shift in climate while negatively affecting the Midwest and Pacific Northwest blueberry farming is causing another one, the Northeast, to thrive. In the agricultural sector, change in climate causes a particular crop that may have grown better in a specific region in the past, now causes other crops to flourish and produce higher annual yields. References Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum)-incorrect soil ph. (n.d.). Pacific Northwest Pest Management Handbooks. Retrieved February 21, 2014, from

6 Bruulsema, T. (2006). Soil Fertility in the Northeast Region. Better Crops, 90(1), 8, 9, 10. Retrieved February 21, 2014, from B52/$file/06-1p08.pdf Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest. (2011, October 9). Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest. Retrieved March 3, 2014, from Handley, D., & Rivard, J. (2007, December 1). Growing Highbush Blueberries. Growing Highbush Blueberries. Retrieved March 4, 2014, from Kalra, N., Chander, S., Pathak, H., Aggarwal, P., Gupta, N., Sehgal, M., et al. (2007). Impacts of climate change on agriculture. Outlook on Agriculture, 36(2), (10). Midwest Impacts & Adaptation. (n.d.). EPA. Retrieved March 3, 2014, from Northeast Impacts & Adaptation. (n.d.). EPA. Retrieved March 3, 2014, from Recent Census Years. (n.d.). USDA. Retrieved March 3, 2014, from Reilly, J. (2013). Climatic Effects on Crop Plants. Agriculture in a Changing Climate:

7 Impacts and Adaptation (p. 432). USA: IPCC - wg2 government. Sherman, W., & Beckman, T. (2003). CLIMATIC ADAPTATION IN FRUIT CROPS. Corvallis: Acta Hort. ISHS. Tips on Growing Great Blueberries. (n.d.). : Outdoors : Home & Garden Television. Retrieved February 21, 2014, from United States: Blueberries (tame). (2013, December 5). World Agricultural Outlook Board. Retrieved March 2, 2014, from estame.pdf Wander, M., & Marlin, J. E. (2010, January 1). Will Climate Change Affect Food Production?. Change and the Heartland, pp Retrieved March 3, 2014, from n.pdf Wichelns, D. (2010). Agricultural Water Pricing: United States. Hanover College, Indiana, USA: Organization for economic Co-operation and Development.