Regional Programme: Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel

Transcription

1 Regional Programme: Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Chad, Cote d Ivoire, Cameroon World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 5 December 2016

2 Project/Programme Title: Country/Region: Regional Programme: Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Chad, Cote d Ivoire, Cameroon / The Sahel Accredited Entity: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) National Designated Authority: SP/CONEDD (Burkina Faso), CNEDD (Niger), DEEC (Senegal), The Environment and Sustainable Development Agency (Mali), Ministry of Environment and Fisheries (Chad), Ministry of Environment, Protection of Nature and Sustainable Development (MINEPDED, Cameroon), Bureau of Climate Change, Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (Cote d Ivoire)

3 A. Project / Programme Information A.1. Project / programme title A.2. Project or programme A.3. Country (ies) / region PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 1 OF 40 Please submit the completed form to fundingproposal@gcfund.org 1 Regional Programme: Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel ProgrammeProgramme Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Chad, Cote d Ivoire, Cameroon / The Sahel A.4. National designated authority(ies) SP/CONEDD (Burkina Faso) CNEDD (Niger) Department of the Environment and Classified Establishments-DEEC (Senegal) The Environment and Sustainable Development Agency (Mali) Ministry of Environment and Fisheries (Chad) Ministry of Environment, Protection of Nature and Sustainable Development (MINEPDED, Cameroon) Bureau of Climate Change, Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (Cote d Ivoire) A.5. Accredited entity A.6. Executing entity / beneficiary World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Executing Entity: WMO National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in each target country, with technical support of GFCS Partners Advisory Committee agencies and UN Country Teams (specifically World Bank, UNDP, FAO, WFP, WHO, IFRC and the UN Water Partnership) Regional Climate Centers (ACMAD) and other regional forecasting centers), (AGHRYMET), with Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (Dakar and CAPC-AC, Yaounde) Beneficiaries in each target country: At national level: Ministries in charge of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, Water, Energy, Environment, Health, Disaster Management, Tourism, Transport and Infrastructure At district level: District level governors and public officials At local level: Vulnerable farmers, fisher folks, pastoralists and communities at risk from rising climate risks. A.7. Access modality Direct International A.8. Project size category (total investment, million USD) A.9. Mitigation / adaptation focus A.10. Public or private Micro ( 10) Small (10<x 50) Medium (50<x 250) Large (>250) Mitigation Adaptation Cross-cutting publicpublic A.11. Results areas (mark all that apply) Which of the following targeted results areas does the proposed project/programme address? 1 Please use the following naming convention for the file name: [CN]-[Agency short name]-[date]-[serial number] (e.g. CN-ABC ).

4 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 2 OF 40 Reduced emissions from: Energy access and power generation (E.g. on-grid, micro-grid or off-grid solar, wind, geothermal, etc.) Low emission transport (E.g. high-speed rail, rapid bus system, etc.) Buildings, cities, industries and appliances (E.g. new and retrofitted energy-efficient buildings, energy-efficient equipment for companies and supply chain management, etc.) Forestry and land use (E.g. forest conservation and management, agroforestry, agricultural irrigation, water treatment and management, etc.) Increased resilience of: Most vulnerable people and communities (E.g. mitigation of operational risk associated with climate change diversification of supply sources and supply chain management, relocation of manufacturing facilities and warehouses, etc.) Health and well-being, and food and water security (E.g. climate-resilient crops, efficient irrigation systems, etc.) Infrastructure and built environment (E.g. sea walls, resilient road networks, etc.) Ecosystems and ecosystem services (E.g. ecosystem conservation and management, ecotourism, etc.) A.12. Project / programme life span A.13. Estimated implementation start and end date 5 years ( ) Start: January 1 st, 2018 End: December 31 st, B. Project/Programme Details The Fund requires the following preliminary information in order to promptly assess the eligibility of project/programme investment. These requirements may vary depending on the nature of the project/programme. The Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel Regional Programme aims to build the resilience of countries and vulnerable communities at the frontlines of a changing climate in the Sahel, through the generation, communication and use at large scale of co-designed and co-developed climate information services tailored to the needs of national and local users. B.1. Project / program me descripti on (includin g objectiv es) The region of the Sahel, characterized by chronic poverty and prone to rising climate-related shocks, has been chosen as a primary target. The country-identified needs and user priorities for climate services of seven countries will be addressed (Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Chad, Cameroon and Cote d Ivoire), with the goal to deliver high-quality, coordinated and salient climate services for the following 6 sectors, as well as promote their use and mainstreaming into planning and decisionmaking at both national and local levels: Agriculture & Food Security, Health, Disaster Risk Management, Water, Energy and Transport/Infrastructure. A critically needed institutional coordination and governance mechanism for climate services, bringing together all the relevant actors to link climate knowledge to action for resilience in the region, will be established through the National Frameworks for Climate Services in each country targeted for this Programme, with supporting Regional Coordination Mechanisms. In all seven target countries, the World Meteorological Organization through the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) has already conducted National Consultations on Climate Services and a National Action Plan on Climate Services has been formulated and nationally endorsed, providing a master plan to guide priority investments in support of national climate services

5 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 3 OF 40 It is important to note that this program proposal is a direct contribution to the implementation of the Africa Hydromet Programme: Strengthening Climate and Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa, a framework partnership between WMO, the World Bank and the African Development Bank to support hydromet modernization and enhanced delivery of climate and weather information services in Africa. This proposal will enable pilot learning for the Sahel region, initializing one component of the Hydromet Africa Program (the National Frameworks) and offering a model for up scaling functional coordination mechanisms for climate services co-production, delivery and use in future Hydromet Country programmes across the rest of Africa. Finally, at the continental level, the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology 2 (AMCOMET), a joint initiative of the WMO and the African Union Commission (AUC), promotes the development of weather and climate services, and their applications in Africa. AMCOMET led the development of the Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology 3, a policy document endorsed by the African Union Heads of State and Government in The Strategy positions weather and climate services as essential components in national and regional sustainable development frameworks in Africa, particularly in disaster risk reduction (DRR), poverty eradication efforts and strategies for climate change adaptation. The Strategy is also one of the key mechanisms for the implementation of a sustained GFCS in Africa, building on AMCOMET s important links to the Regional Economic Communities (RECs). Physical Context The Sahel is defined as the land area in West Africa between isohyets 200 and 600 mm, located between the Sahara desert and the more rain-abundant southern parts of Western Africa. This area is one of low rainfall, characterized by savannah, grassy steppe-type vegetation and dotted with trees in its southern part and shrubs the more one goes north. The rainy season does not exceed three months, historically between June and August, and rainfall is often erratic from one year to another. Large areas of land are characterized by infertile and fragile soils. In a region where over 80 per cent on average of the workforce is dependent on rain-fed agriculture, changes in rainfall have consequence on livelihoods, socio-economic development, culture and the natural environment. Need for Adaptation Rising Uncertainty in the Sahel Faced with rising uncertainty, the Sahel seems engaged in a historical process of increasing variability without doubt linked to global warming. During the twentieth century, three major climatic phases appeared distinctly: a relatively "wet" period; followed by a dry period from the early 70s onwards, with the descent of isohyets to the south that created the severe Sahel droughts of the 80s and demonstrated how climate shifts could threaten the delicate balance between man and the environment; finally followed since the mid-1990s by a return of the rains. Whether there is definite return of rains (a so-called greening of the Sahel) or whether we are in a wet cycle that could end soon with a return to drier conditions, is a question on which climate science still does not offer a final verdict. On the other hand, temperature changes in West Africa and more specifically in the Sahel follow a trend faster than global warming. Increase range from 0.2 to 0.8 C since the 1970s

6 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 4 OF 40 Fig. 1: High rainfall variability over the Sahel. Time series of standardized frequency of rainy days (solid line) and median intensity (dashed line) in Senegal and Burkina Faso during (Giannini et al, ) These characteristics render the Sahel a region of high climate variability, where the future remains uncertain, but where we can state with certainty that we need to adapt to rising climate variability is an imperative, as we brace for increased climatic changes over the years to come. Against this backdrop of rising variability and uncertainty in future climate, one important adaptation strategy will be to equip national governments and leaders in the Sahel countries with climate predictions, forecasts, and the capacity to empower them to confront rising variability and anticipate shorter-term climate shocks, at the intra-seasonal to inter-annual timescales, in support of a culture of forward planning and prevention ahead of forecast extreme events. Forecast skill at shorter timescales is higher than over longer time climate change projections, and therein lies the potential of using climate services to prevent catastrophes, in a context where climate change is already predicted to exacerbate current climate variability in the Sahel. Socio-economic context Vulnerability is a pervasive and multidimensional phenomenon in the Sahel countries. It is found in both rural and urban settings, in marginal areas as well as in areas deemed more opulent. The fragile Sahel region is the "front line" of locust invasions, famines and droughts, affecting West Africa 5 at regular intervals. The last major locust crisis, resulting from favourably wet climate conditions, dated back to and more recently in 2004; they caused extensive damage to crops and vegetation cover. The significant occurrence of dust/sand storms, malaria, meningitis and heat waves affecting human health and productivity are also noteworthy, and contributes to the climate burden of the Sahel. In the Sahelo-Sudanese areas, production systems are based on rain-fed dry cereals and long fallow. Productivity remains very low and increasing needs of rural households result in increased pressure on land. There is a significant degradation of land and more generally of natural resources by increasing population relying on rain-fed, non-irrigated and low-intensity agricultural systems. In the rare watered or irrigated areas, poor connection to domestic, regional or international markets, and limited access to credit and inputs prevents a real intensification and diversification of production of rice, corn, millet, and vegetable crops. Moreover, urbanization and population growth are key challenges affecting the Sahel and will most likely continue to impact household food security. Several countries have a 50% urban population and the regional average is around 30%. The Sahel is likely to have more than 100 million habitants by Half of this population will live in cities and will source its food at market stalls. 4 A. Giannini, S. Salack, T. Lodoun, A. Ali, A. T. Gaye and O. Ndiaye. A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intraseasonal, interannual and longer time scales. Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013) Including the central belt of Chad and the northern of Cameroon.

7 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 5 OF 40 Impacts of climate variability and change on ecosystems in the Sahel region are unequivocal. The most affected sectors are agriculture through soil degradation, declining productivity of crops, livestock and water resources. Recent simulations in tropical areas using agro-meteorological models to analyze the response of crops to a rise in temperature show that the yields of millet / sorghum crops will fall by 10% in the event of a temperature increase of 2 C and insignificant changes in precipitation by A rise of 3 C will result in low agricultural yields in the order of 15 to 25%. However, for rice, an increase in yields of about 10 to 35% could be observed over the next few decades if water resources are sufficient. Hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) are expected to increase the future. Although the extent of future changes are not yet known, it is expected that sub-region will increase in the variability of water resources due to climate change. Recent and historical changes in the Sahel show that this fragile part of Africa deserves special attention and, probably a specific treatment in national and international policies for medium and long-term development. The demographic, economic and climate transition is undoubtedly more painful and brings less opportunities than elsewhere in Africa. Core problem to be addressed The core problem to be addressed is the absence or under-use of tailored climate information services to inform adaptation decisions by policy-makers and vulnerable communities at the frontlines of a highly variable and changing climate s impacts in the Sahel region. Aside from the WMO Regional Climate Center (RCC with a continental mandate) hosted by ACMAD (which itself still faces capacity limitations), the current climate services provided in the region do not build on best available science and modelling as well as the prediction capability available through the WMO Global Production Centers for Long Range Forecasts (GPCLRFs) and other leading centres. As a result, current climate services in the Sahel are stymied by the lack of an effective end-to-end service delivery mechanism, which will truly design user-driven climate services, endeavour a process of co-design and codevelopment of such climate services bringing together best available climate science with sector specific knowledge to transform information into advisory services, and finally implement two-way communication mediums to reach end-users from the regional planner down to the last mile farmer or herder. The main tenacious obstacles to climate service generation and delivery in the Sahel include: (a) Human and technical capacity gaps within National Hydro-meteorological Services (NHMSs) (b) Limited observational infrastructure, data and poor network maintenance capabilities (c) Limited institutional capacities within national sectoral departments in charge of climatesensitive sectors, to tailor and package climate information to sectoral planning and information needs (d) Absence of user interface platforms that facilitate understanding of needs and available capacities, and development of feedback processes (e) Absence of institutional and legislative frameworks to govern inter-sectoral coordination essential for the delivery of climate services (f) Limited capacity of final end users (policy-makers, local communities) to integrate received climate services for decision making (g) Poor or inexistent climate information infrastructure able to relay perishable forecast information products and advisories to remote communities and back (h) Service delivery challenges across all climate-sensitive sectors. Table 1 Gaps and needs in national and regional capacities for effective climate services in the Sahel (prepared as part of the WMO GFCS Sahel Project baseline and other projects in the Region)

8 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 6 OF 40 Gaps/Needs National Regional Human and technical capacity Increased human capacity of NMHS Appropriate tools, models and equipment at NMHSs to ensure efficient climate services delivery to users Capacity development gaps for the collection, development and delivery of climate services and awareness raising of users Regular broadcasting of weather/climate information ACMAD and other technical institutions lack resource persons Infrastructural capacity gaps at RCC, technical institutions, and NMHSs Significant human and technical capacity gaps in NMHSs in the Sahel are limiting their ability to provide climate services to users Institutional capacities Observations and data Modelling capabilities Climate watch and environment monitoring including drought Forecasting and warning system for high impact weather User interface and services delivery In-country capacity to enable effective coordination between different technical institutions needed for the co-production of user-relevant climate services, and implementation of the action plans for the establishment of effective frameworks for climate services in each country Gaps in the observations network Quality control of data Modernization of equipment Data for sectorial applications Limited area model weather forecasts Crop models Urban and riverine flood models Vegetation status monitoring Analysis tools and EW Soil conditions (moisture, ETP, water balance) Water levels Needs for high value Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through cascading forecasting process Capacity development of NMHSs on interpretation of NWP products and guidance for making best use of the information in forecast and warning of high impact weather Improved interface/ systematic dialogue between users and providers to facilitate addressing the demand for tailored climate services in climate-sensitive sectors Improved access, packaging, tailoring and delivery of services/information User tailored products Improved users understanding of climate services Improved communication to tackle languages, format and communication channels Research Collaborative research to improve understanding and predictability of local climate and assessment of climate impacts on socio-economic sectors Research to develop decision support tools to facilitate application of climate services by decision-makers Absence of regional coordination mechanisms for the co-production, delivery and early action on weather and climate alerts by regional stakeholders Regional coordination mechanisms, bringing together RCCs with regional stakeholders to bridge the climate science and user divide in the Sahel Improved regional data bases and data management procedures Regional numerical prediction weather models Development of regional tools and procedures Improved support to countries Significant capacities gaps in NMHSs in the Sahel to provide services for high impact weather to users for improved decision making Capacity development of RSMC Dakar to enhance cascading of high value NWP information Significant gap between the supply of climate services by RCC and technical intuitions and the needs of users in the Sahel Users need access to expert advice and support to help them select, interpret and apply RCC information and products Collaborative processes need to be set up Staff to lead the research and participate in research programs, writing grant proposals, engage with Universities and research institutions is needed

9 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 7 OF 40 Communication Improve how climate services are communicated to users (to enhance uptake and use) A coherent communication strategy is lacking at ACMAD and other regional centres Baseline The Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel Regional Programme proposed for consideration by the Green Climate Fund, targets seven countries across the Sahel: Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Chad, Cameroon and Cote d Ivoire. National Action Plans on climate services developed by each target country between 2012 and 2016 detail the physical and socio-economic context of each country, and provide the baseline status of adaptation and climate services in each country. Please refer to the attached pre-feasibility study. The method used for identifying emerging investment options for climate services in the Sahel is based on the baseline needs assessments conducted during the process of developing the National Action plans for climate services in each targeted country. The Sahel National Action Plans are based on five years of stakeholder consultation, engagement and participatory activity planning in the region. The GFCS began its activities in the Sahel in Five countries were then targeted to pilot GFCS implementation on the ground in Africa, the continent most vulnerable to projected climate change impacts: Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, Niger, Chad and Senegal. These countries, reflecting differing climate service baselines and NHMSs capacities, were supported by WMO/GFCS to organize their National Consultations on Climate Services, and served as the first test beds for what later became the GFCS strategic approach for supporting the development of national frameworks for climate services globally. Today the GFCS approach to support countries in the development of their coordinated national frameworks for climate services (NFCS) consists of five (5) main steps, as outlined in Fig. 2. This systematic approach ultimately aims to support countries to develop the in-country capacity needed to effectively and sustainably develop and apply climate information. The approach also leads to the establishment of an urgently needed institutional framework that enables coordination between stakeholders and joint work among technical experts at national level to localize climate information and develop context-based advisories relevant to support national and local decision-making. Step 1: Baseline Capacity Assessment for the Development of Climate Services National Level Step 2: National Consultation on Climate Services, Development of NMHS Strategic Plan Step 3: Participatory Inter-sectoral Development of National Action Plan for the Establishment of a National Framework for Climate Services Step 4: National Action Plan Endorsement workshop (High level) Step 5: Launch of National Framework for Climate Services, Operational implementation of priority activities, rigorous M&E Fig. 2: GFCS Process for supporting Countries to Establish Coordinated National Frameworks for Climate Services

10 The National Action Plans on Climate Services PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 8 OF 40 The National Action Plans for Climate Services that resulted in Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, Chad, Senegal, Cameroon and Cote d Ivoire outline key priority actions to implement between now and 2020 to enable the successful co-production, communication, delivery and use at large scale of operational climate services, which will effectively support the decisions of regional/national policy-makers and local vulnerable communities alike in the face of an uncertain future climate. The National Action Plans across the board indicate four main components for action: Component 1: The generation of high quality hydro meteorological information and coproduction of climate services with sectorial technical experts (first level users) across national climate sensitive sectors to deliver user-tailored climate services Component 2: Enabling Communication and appropriate access to data and climate services at national level by final users Component 3: Strengthening the capacity of users to understand and act on received climate services, as well as provide feedback on the quality/relevance of services received Component 4: Defining an appropriate Governance framework for National Climate Services (the NFCS) ensuring linkages with adaptation efforts underway. Programme components presented in this concept note stem largely from priorities for action and investment options that have emerged from the National Action Plans to respond to user needs. Launch of the National Frameworks for Climate Services Frameworks for Climate Services as of today have been devised in all seven (7) priority countries to coordinate and improve climate services delivery and use. The launch event of the first NFCSs is planned to take place by the end of 2016 in Niger, Burkina, Senegal, Chad, Cameroon and Cote d Ivoire, staged around the signature of the legislative decree creating the National framework and signing it into law in each country. Chad was the first country in the region to sign its national ministerial decree establishing and governing the operation of its National Framework for Climate Services, on October 25, 2016.The current Sahel Regional Programme proposed for the consideration of the Green Climate Fund will support the implementation of their National frameworks, and provide Governments with initial resources to enable the functioning of this new institutional apparatus in supporting of bridging the gap between climate science and decisionmaking under a changing climate, while public resources are being mobilized by national governments between now and 2020 to render the national frameworks self-sustained and public demand-driven. As such, the proposed GCF Programme will come at a critical time in the institutional evolution of Sahelian countries to respond to the imperative of adaptation to their changing climate. Indeed, by providing Governments with needed funding (currently not available from public financing) to build the infrastructure, institutional relationships and collaboration necessary for climate services to be generated and used, and climate knowledge transformed into useable products and services, transformative change is anticipated through the joint work that will to take place between NMHSs forecasters and technical experts from climate-sentitive sectorial line ministries, bridging the gap between climate knowledge and action to inform public planning and disaster preparedness decisions across the Sahel region. Regional Coordination Mechanisms In order to deliver user-driven climate services at the regional level, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), active in several parts of Africa and the world, and which routinely produce consensusbased, user-relevant climate outlook products in real time through regional cooperation, will be leveraged. RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on a regular basis to produce a regional climate outlook based on input from global and regional producers of climate information as well as from NMHSs of the region concerned by: addressing regions of common climate characteristics, ensuring consistency in access to, and interpretation of, climate information, facilitating close user interaction to jointly assess the likely implications of the outlooks, and providing training on long-range forecasting and communication to end users, among others.

11 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 9 OF 40 The RCOF dedicated to West Africa is the Prévisions Saisonnières en Afrique de l'ouest (PRESAO) and is coordinated by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD), based in Niger a designated WMO RCC. The AGRHYMET Regional Centre is responsible for discharging outlooks and agrometeorological advices based on precipitation outlooks. RCOF activities in West Africa are not yet but ought to come under the auspices of ECOWAS. For Central Africa, the Economic Commission of Central African States (ECCAS) recently established a regional specialized meteorological centre, the Centre d Application et de Prevision Climatologique de l Afrique Centrale (CAPC-AC) in Yaoundé, Republic of Cameroon. Both Cameroon and Chad are founding members of the above RPMC. Program Objectives The Linking Climate Knowledge to Action for Resilience in the Sahel Regional Programme has the following three specific objectives: I. Support seven target countries to implement National Frameworks for Climate Services (NFCSs) and step up climate services delivery mechanisms for users The National Frameworks will bring together the diversity of actors in the national chain of climate services, straddling climate, policy and geographic scales, who will begin to work together hand-in-hand in order to link climate knowledge with action on the ground, from regional to local. The NFCSs will serve as a privileged platform for linking demand with supply of climate services at national level and delivering a suite of new co-designed and co-produced climate services that will address the needs of national and local level users of climate services across the priority climate sensitive sectors of: Agriculture and Food Security, Health, Disaster Risk Management, Water, Energy, Transport and Infrastructure. Fig. 3: Vision of the National Chain for Climate Services: various stakeholders working together hand-in-hand to Link Climate Knowledge with Action. Source: Tall II. Sustain the National Frameworks for Climate Services (NFCSs) Backed by coherent governance arrangements and fuelled by in-country-led demand, the National Frameworks for climate services are expected to become self-sustaining by the end of the Programme in 2022, and integrated into the regular budgets of national 6 Tall, A. (2013). What do We mean by Climate Services? Special Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization. Vol 62 pp 7-11.

12 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 10 OF 40 governments, paid for by contributions of sectoral departments who regularly use climate services for their routine planning and adaptation decisions. III. Development and implementation of Regional Delivery Mechanisms Support the process and initiate needed political discussions for the establishment of, bringing together existing regional institutions across the climate science and user divide in the Sahel region. Indeed, a wide gap is sustained at the regional level between existing the regional centres and regional stakeholders, who need climate services to better guide their planning decisions and improve regional planning and preparedness for rising risks linked to a changing climate in the region (droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, dust/sand storms, etc.). As such, this final programme component will invest to strengthen the role of the WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC) hosted by ACMAD and the technical intuitions CAPC-AC and AGRHMET in the Sahel covering the West African Sahelian countries (Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and northern Cote d Ivoire) and for the Central African countries, Cameroon and Chad. Regional User Interface Platforms linking the RCC and regional specialized centres with their regional stakeholders will be strengthened to enhance user engagement and service delivery, providing a critical bridge to improve climate services delivery at the regional level and support regional preparedness to rising climate variability and change in the Sahel, backed with improvements in the technical and scientific capabilities of the RCCs to deliver user-tailored decadal, inter-annual, seasonal and sub-seasonal seamless predictions across timescales. Furthermore, WMO s vision of linking global scientific capabilities (sitting within Global Production Centers and Climate data providers, see fig. 3), with regional climate modelling capability (within the RCC and specialized regional centers) through a coordinated Climate information in order to improve the technical capability of NMHSs to deliver climate services for national and local users, will be finally translated into reality through this programme component. This objective aligns with the core foundational Pillars of the GFCS, and emphasizes the scientific and capacity needs required to ensure that the development and delivery of climate services are based on sustained observing systems, cutting edge research and prediction system, effective platforms for knowledge transfer, and capacity development. This implies a special effort on the coordination between different international research programmes with the regional and national scientific efforts, seeking for complementarities to connect the available research with the operational gaps (mostly related with sub-seasonal to inter-annual prediction) at regional and national scales 7. Expected results from this work are a clearer and more pronounced role of the RCCs in supporting the technical capacities of NMHSs to deliver climate services for national-level and local users, as well as an improved delivery of climate services for regional stakeholders to better inform and support regional disaster risk preparedness and mainstreaming of climate services into policy and planning for adaptation in the Sahel region. Examples of regional stakeholders include: Regional humanitarian UN agencies and non-governmental organizations, Regional Economic Commissions (RECs) namely ECOWAS and ECCAS, regional sectoral boundary organizations (e.g. FARA for agriculture, regional river basin organizations for the water sector, the Africa Climate-resilient infrastructure alliance for the transport and infrastructure sectors, etc.), regional development banks, and any other relevant regional user organizations. To sustain and scale up this work, the program will leverage and build on the recently endorsed ECOWAS Regional Strategy on Meteorology, which is already aligned to the pan-african Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology developed by AMCOMET, in collaboration with WMO and the African Union Commission, and will also work hand-in-hand with regional climate services institutions in Africa, such as the Clim-Dev Africa Climate Policy Center (ACPC), in order to facilitate upscaling and policy mainstreaming of climate services into existing regional and national strategies 7 Please refer to the GFCS Operational and Resource Plan for , available online at:

13 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 11 OF 40 Gender There is increasing recognition of the role of social differentiation in delivering relevant climate services for farmers and rural communities (CCAFS, 2014) 8. Gender, power and equity considerations are at the heart of who has access to and uses climate services at the local level (Tall et al ). In November 2014, WMO organized an international conference on the gender dimensions of Weather and Climate Services, the first of its kind, recognizing the central role of gender considerations in the design, implementation and evaluation of climate services for rural communities and users. This Conference enabled WMO to establish a network of international experts on the topic, who will be consulted to gender-screen the activities proposed as part of the Regional Programme. Particular attention will be paid during implementation of the proposed Regional Programme to gender-specific climate information needs as well as specific communication channels, formats and lead times needed to reach women users with salient and actionable climate services. The needs of other marginalized community groups, included youth and handicapped community members, will also be identified through a proper needs assessment phase proposed as a part of the programme Monitoring and Evaluation component. Indigenous Knowledge The project will pay particular attention to pre-existing local knowledge within beneficiary communities. Utmost respect will be paid to local knowledge, as a source of information as valuable as scientific modern climate knowledge. Proposed activities for example under the Programme component 2 include the development of hydromet extreme databases building on indigenous knowledge, as well as an inventory and integration of indigenous predictors of change as entry point for developing locally salient and trusted climate service products. UNESCO s expertise in this area will be leveraged, to develop guidance materials on how best to integrate indigenous knowledge into the boundary of climate knowledge production. Capacity-building As one of foundational pillars of the GFCS and a core constitutive element of sustainability, capacity-building will occupy an important part in the proposed regional Programme. The training and preparation of a new generation of staff prepared to enter climate services will be fundamental to the sustainability of the regional and national frameworks for climate services that will result from the proposed regional programme. To this end, the programme will implement the new WMO Climate Services Competency Framework which outlines all the knowledge and skills required to fulfil the competencies. These will then inform the development of a Basic Instructional Package for Climate Services, which can become the basis for university or professional curricula to prepare African graduates for professional practice in climate services. Several WMO Regional Training Centers (RTCs) in the region will also be called upon to help serve the sustainability of the programme by preparing people to enter the profession using such a curriculum package. These RTCs are in Niger (AGRHYMET), Algeria, Nigeria, and also Egypt. Other RTCs outside Africa (Italy-IBIMET and Israel) also serve the region by offering courses in climate services. These Centers might also be incorporated. It is proposed to implement in-country capacity development, which is an efficient means of simultaneously developing the capacity of multiple staff members in a given NMHS through an embedded mentor-scientist, who can furthermore be leveraged by several staff members of an NMHS, resulting in an multiplier effect. At the same time, the embedded mentor-scientist will also 8 A. Tall, J. Hansen, A. Jay, B. Campbell, J. Kinyangi, P.K. Aggarwal, R. Zougmoré (2014). Scaling up climate services for Farmers: Mission Possible - Learning from good practice in Africa and South Asia. CCAFS Peer-Reviewed Report no. 13. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: 9 A. Tall, P. Kristjanson, M. Chaudhury, S. McKune, R. Zougmore (2014). Who gets the information? Gender, power and equity considerations in the design of climate services for farmers. CCAFS Working Paper no. 89. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at

14 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 12 OF 40 have an opportunity to assess the institutional and infrastructural environment specific to the country and identify gaps that can be addressed in a targeted manner. Program Components Based on the identification of national baseline capacities, user needs, current gaps and emerging investment priorities from the National Action Plans endorsed in the seven target Sahelian countries (detailed in the attached Pre-feasibility study), a regional synthesis of gaps for climate services emerges in the Sahel. These gaps common across the seven countries of the Sahel scoped for the programme form the basis of the Regional programme proposed for the consideration of the GCF. A number of additional regional activities are proposed based on scoping and consultations with regional stakeholders, including the RCC and technical institutions (AGRHYMET, ACMAD), regional UN agencies (UNDP, FAO, WFP, WHO and World Bank), and regional institutions (ECOWAS, African Development Bank, West African Development Bank, Niger Basin Authority). The proposed programme will consist of the following six Result Areas: Result Area 1. Enhanced hydro-meteorological information, products, tools, and technical advisory services Result Area 2. Co-designed and co-developed weather and climate information services by strong hydro-meteorological services (NMHSs) and sectoral partners available for the use of national governments, policy-makers and vulnerable communities Result Area 3: Two-Way Communication of Climate Services at National Scale Result Area 4. Linking Early Warning with Early Action: Capacity strengthening of final users of high impact weather and climate services Result Area 5. Monitoring and Evaluation of Climate Services Result Area 6. Knowledge Management, Capacity-building and Programme Coordination. Result Area 1: Enhanced hydro-meteorological information, products, tools, and technical advisory services This Result Area aims to achieve two main outcomes. OUTCOME 1: A cascading forecast process for high impact weather and Climate Information System in the Sahel, providing enhanced hydro-meteorological information, products and tools for implementation, through strengthened linkages among WMO centres and NMHSs from global to regional, national and local scales Outputs under this component are: (a) Strengthened national observing systems (b) Historical datasets on essential climate variables (c) Climate and hydrological data management systems (d) Monitoring systems (e) Forecasting of High impact weather: support to development of cascading extreme weather forecasting products from global to local leveraging the WMO Severe Weather forecasting Demonstration project (SWFDP) including developing capacity of the NMHSs in the Sahel on interpretation and making best use of the cascaded high value information and guidance in forecasting of high impact weather (f) Flash flood and riverine flood guidance systems (g) Sub-seasonal forecasting systems (h) Objective regional seasonal forecasts downscaled and tailored for decision-support at national level OUTCOME 2: Technical advisory services for the implementation of hydro-meteorological services and their integration into policy, planning and decision support processes for adaptation, resilience and mitigation Outputs under this component are: (a) WMO Technical advisory support and quality assurance to guide the generation of high quality climate information and implementation of robust weather and climate forecasting systems in the region, according to WMO global standards (b) WMO Technical advisory support and quality assurance to guide NMHSs in the translation of climate information into climate services relevant for the following sectors, building on

15 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 13 OF 40 global experience and standards in this realm: Agriculture and food security, Disaster Risk Management, Health, Water, Energy, and Infrastructure and transport. Result Area 2: Co-designed and co-developed high impact weather and and climate information services by strong national hydro-meteorological services (NMHSs) and sectoral partners available for the use of national governments, policy-makers and vulnerable communities This Result Area will focus on the development of a new suite of user-tailored seamless weather and climate services for the following country-prioritized sectors of the national economy highly vulnerable to climate variability and change: Agriculture and Food Security, Disaster Risk Management, Health, Water, Energy, Transport/Infrastructure (with the addition of Tourism for Senegal). OUTCOME 3: Series of new user-driven and tailored climate services including for high impact weather are developed and effectively address the climate service needs of national planners, decision-makers and vulnerable communities in the face of uncertain future climate conditions; across 7 target climate-sensitive sectors: Food Security, Health, DRR, Water, Energy, Transport/ Infrastructure, and tourism. Outputs will include: (a) Tailored weather and climate-related advisories are developed, tested, evaluated and promoted in target climate-sensitive sectors in each country. (b) The national observation networks of hydro meteorological services are strengthened and operate automatically (c) The national Hydro Meterological Services and sectoral ministries in charge of food security, fisheries, health, disaster risk reduction, water, energy and tourism are strengthened in the co-development of tailored climate services. (d) National Frameworks on Climate Services are in place, operational and sustainable in each country (e) A Regional Coordination Framework for Climate Services is in place, operational and sustainable OUTCOME 4: Strengthened capacity of national hydro-meteorological services (NHMSs) and their national sectoral partners to co-develop, communicate, use and evaluate user-tailored climate services Outputs will include: (a) National observation networks of hydro meteorological services are strengthened and operate automatically (b) National meteorological and hydrological services and sectorial ministries in charge of food security, fisheries, health, disaster risk reduction, water, energy and tourism are strengthened in the co-development of tailored climate services OUTCOME 5: By 2022, Functional and self-sustaining Regional and National frameworks for Climate Services oversee the co-production, delivery, use and evaluation of climate services in each country. Outputs will include: (a) National Framework on Climate services are in place, operational and sustainable in each country (b) A Regional Coordination Framework for Climate Services is in place, operational and sustainable Result Area 3: Two-Way Communication of Climate Services that Reach the Last Mile OUTCOME 6: Two-Way Communication Systems for Climate Services are in place in each country, and reach the last Mile Outputs will include:

16 GREEN CLIMATE FUND PAGE 14 OF 40 (a) Communication plans for better access and use of climate services are designed and implemented by the NMHSs, partners and media; (b) Climate information communication system for different types of users of weather and climate services is established in each country; Result Area 4: Linking Early Warning with Early Action: Capacity strengthening of users to access, understand and act on high impact weather and climate services Under this Result Area, the final beneficiaries of the programme (end users of climate services at both national and local scales), will be supported to understand, use and act on climate services, and provide feedback on the quality/relevance of services received. OUTCOME 7: Early warning linked to early action in the region The output will be early warning systems are reviewed, revised and / or established, tested and evaluated for all weather and climate-related hazards (addressing the specific needs of the DRM sector) OUTCOME 8: Improved climate-informed planning and decision-making processes by national governments in the Sahel Outputs will include: (a) Planning and budgeting tools in the short / medium / long term to manage climate-related uncertainties are co-developed and / or updated and used by sectorial ministries) (b) Sectorial ministries planning services are strengthened in the use of climate services and evaluation of tools developed OUTCOME 9: Reduction in the chronic loss in livelihoods caused by recurrent climate-related shocks in the region Outputs will include: (a) National index-based insurance are strengthened (b) Communities most vulnerable to rising climate risks in each country are accompanied with development of alternative economic activities Result Area 5: Monitoring and evaluation of Climate Services Impact This Programme will offer a valuable opportunity for demonstrating the value of climate services in action, when these are designed right, with the needs of users in mind. As such an important Result Area for Programme implementation will consist of generating evidence on the value of climate services against the baseline, working with program partners. For the Agriculture and Food security sector for example, FAO s experience in M&E of climate services impacts in the agricultural sector should be leveraged. Guidance from WHO on health impact indicators will be used, and so forth. OUTCOME 10: Improved climate-informed planning and decision-making processes by national governments in the Sahel Outputs will include: (a) The salience of the newly developed climate services, their relevance to meet user needs and their used is continuously assessed (b) Programme Baseline data collection, Mid-term evaluation and Final Programme Impact Assessment are undertaken successfully Result Area 6: Programme Coordination, Knowledge, Management, and Capacity-Building Dedicated knowledge management personnel and activities as part of this programme will enable the synthesis and widespread communication of programme findings all along programme