T i t l e. Andes. agriculture. Food security. Tailored climate information in pilot basins for food security and agriculture in the Andes. in the.

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1 Food security and agriculture in the Andes Tailored climate information in pilot basins for food security and agriculture in the Andes T i t l e Juan José Nieto, CIIFEN

2 Issue to be addressed clients Authorities must ensure infrastructure to deliver of farm products be operative (roads, gathering center) Farmers need climate forecasts to plan crop cycles.

3 Issue to be addressed Local authorities and farmers do not have forecast information at the level of detail required or bulletins use too technical language. Forecasts are made for large scale and only in terms of probability in tercile categories (above, below, normal) which have little meaning to local authorities and farmers.

4 How will the problem be solved? All actions are focused on two of the pillars of food security: Access to farm products (Availability) Offer of farm products (Stability) ECMWF S4 Hindcast data Statistical model Dowscalled tercile in terms of amount Forectast in categorical probabilities Transform terciles in terms of 90P and 10P (probability of extremes) Transform data into índices to be forcasted (CDD, CWD, SDI) Transform terciles in terms of analog years (probability of being like X year)

5 Data to be used S4 model outputs (precipitation and temperature Re-forecast). S4 Re-forecast initialized on each month (6 lead times: 1-6 months). Pre-processing: S4 daily data will be aggregated to monthly and quarterly data for downscaling

6 Indicators to calculate Mean maximum temperature Mean minimum temperature Consecutive dry days Consecutive wet days Daily temperature range Rain above 90P Rain below 10P

7 Workflow progress Data download Any progress, data to be obtained Stations data processing Completed..CII calculated at station point

8 Workflow progress Bias adjustment / QC Stations data quality controlled Bias adjustment.. pending Downscale at higher resolutions Pending, to be completed when data is obtained

9 Workflow progress Web-mapping First draft completed by Wageningen Environmental Research Pending to send information about basins and examples of model outputs Downscale at higher resolutions Pending, to be completed when data is obtained

10 Knowledge brokering Interactions have been made with users in: Chinchina-Colombia Workshops that dealt with four themes: Ecosystem Services of the Páramo; Concepts about climate change; Impacts of climate change and variability; and adaptation and mitigation

11 Knowledge brokering Participants were asked to commit themselves to adopting an adaptation measure that fits their own reality. The agreements that were obtained from the participants include The commitment of conservation areas by the inhabitants of the area. The creation of a local climate committee.

12 Knowledge brokering Coffee bean farmers in Chinchiná-Colombia

13 Impact/importance of results/issues/lessons A proxy of climate change adaptation measures can be adapted to the seasonal scale, as a community prepared for climate variability is more resilient to climate change. The lessons learnt are that although the projections or seasonal predictions are not infallible, they provide an idea of what can happen to the climate in the long and short term, and as authorities are constantly removed, then sustainable strategies for proposed measures must be defined.

14 Impact/importance of results/issues/lessons It is necessary that the information be treated in an inter-sectoral space in order to be able to analyze the possible impacts in different sectors and to have more integrated proposals, which are more likely to be successful. Further, the information needs to reach the relevant management level. To do this, considering the level of education and internet access, a multimodal approach should be used to disseminate information: local radios, extensionists and government programs working with the same products, producer associations, religious services, commercial houses, etc.

15 Impact/importance of results/issues/lessons change information and possible impacts have to be translated into a simple language for easy understanding by those who will potentially be affected. The definition of possible ways to face and reduce impacts should consider local knowledge as they are those who have already experienced similar situations and have traditional practices to cope with similar events.

16 Impact/importance of results/issues/lessons Usually climate and variability assessments are based on global projections and poorly quality controlled data from meteorological stations, and generally do not consider food security concepts. The focus is usually on specific crops, without considering the vulnerability of that crop to climate change, or as a component of the food sector as a whole. Traditionally these assessments are cropcentric and not user-centric.

17 Impact/importance of results/issues/lessons information can be particularly helpful to anticipate, prepare for and respond to agriculture or food security risks, to address problems triggered by climate extremes (i.e., droughts, thermal extremes) as well as longer term risks associated with climate change (e.g., increased frequency of floods, desertification). The service is driven by the needs of the user community, products are tailored for local use, and resources are based on collaboration and consultation with local partners and stakeholders (authorities and farmer associations). Extension services in agriculture, are often the link between the scientific community and the agricultural users.

18 Impact/importance of results/issues/lessons change will act as a hunger risk multiplier, exacerbating the risk factors that impact food security. Without significant efforts to improve livelihoods and build resilience, climate change is projected by 2050 to increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 10 to 20 per cent and to increase the number of malnourished children by 21 per cent. Some benefits arising from decision making based on this approach of adaptation can be: Identification of extreme climate hazards over agriculture and food security; Identification of populations vulnerable to climate hazards; sensitive decisions in the agriculture and food security value chains;

19 What to be done Obtain hindcast data Process data to downscale Made demonstration forecast of CII Continue contacting users

20 THANK YOU