WORLD GAS DEMAND REPORT IGU - WOC 9, Demand Study Group WGC Tokyo, June 2003

Transcription

1 WORLD GAS DEMAND REPORT IGU - WOC 9, Demand Study Group WGC Tokyo, June 2003

2 GENERAL FRAMEWORK METHODOLOGY SCENARIOS DEFINITION BACKGROUND IGU - WOC 9, Demand Study Group WGC Tokyo, June 2003

3 METHODOLOGY 30 Questionnaire answers, representing 80% of the current worldwide demand NORTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA AFRICA WEST & CENTRAL EUROPE MIDDLE EAST EAST ASIA SOUTH ASIA EAST EUROPE NORTH ASIA SOUTH EAST ASIA & OCEANIA

4 SCENARIOS DEFINITION BASE CASE HIGH CASE LOW CASE GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS No restrictions on natural gas supply 90 s energy price context Natural gas is the fuel of choice for power generation Natural gas is the leading fuel in environmental issues SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS

5 MAIN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LAST 30 YEARS Worldwide gas consumption 1.2 Trillion cm/y 2.4 Trillion cm/y Worldwide gas share in primary energy: + 5% Nuclear and Hydro Power: + 7% Oil: - 9% Coal: - 3% Trillion : 10 12

6 Rivers of steel are crossing my country

7 WORLD GAS DEMAND REPORT Questionnaire Feedback Prospects for energy demand and gas share evolution Prospects for gas demand and 2 sensitive cases Market segments breakdown Regional breakdown

8 QUESTIONNAIRE FEEDBACK BASE CASE Worldwide population (billion people): 6.1 (2000) 8.3 (2030) Questionnaires assumptions were generally validated Few cases mentioned the promotion of nuclear or coal based power generation Energy intensity is expected to decline Billion: 10 9

9 QUESTIONNAIRE FEEDBACK HIGH CASE - Economic growth stronger than expected. - Faster penetration of natural gas in energy markets. LOW CASE - Economic growth lower than expected. - Government policies promoting nuclear and coal for power generation.

10 PROSPECTS FOR ENERGY DEMAND AND GAS SHARE EVOLUTION PRIMARY ENERGY (EJ/y) % NATURAL GAS (EJ/y) % BASE CASE % GAS IN ENERGY 23.2% 25.5% 26.5% EJ : exajoules J

11 PROSPECTS FOR GAS DEMAND Volumes in trillion cm/y (10 12 cm/y) TOTAL WORLD HIGH CASE % 2.9% BASE CASE % 2.3% LOW CASE % 1.8% Rates according to non-rounded volumes

12 WORLDWIDE GAS (Trillion cm/y) WORLDWIDE GAS ACTUAL CONSUMPTION PROJECTED DEMAND HIGH BASE LOW Trillion : 10 12

13 MARKET SEGMENTS BREAKDOWN variation Residential and Commercial 32% 26% 1.6% Industrial and Chemical 32% 31% 2.2% Power generation 30% 38% 3.1% NGV and others 6% 5% 1.7% TOTAL (Billion cm/y) % Billion : 10 9

14 REGIONAL BREAKDOWN Billion cm/y (10 9 cm/y) North America % Eastern Europe and North Asia % Western & Central Europe % Middle East % East Asia % South East Asia & Oceania % South America % Africa % South Asia % TOTAL %

15 REGIONAL BREAKDOWN Billion cm/y (10 9 cm/y) North America % Eastern Europe and North Asia % Western & Central Europe % Middle East % East Asia % South East Asia & Oceania % South America % Africa % South Asia % TOTAL %

16 REGIONAL BREAKDOWN Billion cm/y (10 9 cm/y) North America % Eastern Europe and North Asia % Western & Central Europe % Middle East % East Asia % South East Asia & Oceania % South America % Africa % South Asia % TOTAL %

17 REGIONAL BREAKDOWN Billion cm/y (10 9 cm/y) North America % Eastern Europe and North Asia % Western & Central Europe % Middle East % East Asia % South East Asia & Oceania % South America % Africa % South Asia % TOTAL %

18 STUDY GROUP MEMBERS

19 AREA REPORTERS

20 AFRICA BANCOURT, Pascal - FRANCE

21 MIDDLE EAST VAN MERWIJK, Kees - THE NETHERLANDS

22 EAST ASIA OHSAKI, Kazumasa - JAPAN

23 SOUTH ASIA OHSAKI, Kazumasa - JAPAN

24 SOUTH EAST ASIA & OCEANIA MALTESSON, Hans - SWEDEN

25 EASTERN EUROPE & NORTH ASIA CORNAGGIA, Davide - ITALY

26 WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE ALTSTÄTTER, Martin - GERMANY MORALEDA, Pedro - SPAIN

27 NORTH AMERICA KALISCH, Robert - UNITED STATES

28 SOUTH AMERICA LA FEMINA, Paola - ARGENTINA

29 OTHER MEMBERS

30 SELC, L ubomir - SLOVAKIA

31 TJERSLAND, Runar - NORWAY

32 WOLFF, Jiri - CZECH REPUBLIC

33 SECRETARY LA FEMINA, Paola - ARGENTINA

34 WORLD GAS DEMAND REPORT DI CINO, Flavia ARGENTINA