Tanzania Food Security Report: October 10, 2002

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1 Tanzania Food Security Report: October 10, 2002 Summary Food security conditions this month were satisfactory in most parts of Tanzania. However, normal food shortages were reported in the Kilimanjaro and Tanga regions of northern Tanzania. Compared to August prices, September wholesale prices for maize were stable in Dar es Salaam and Rukwa, but increased at different magnitudes on most of the other monitored markets. Meanwhile, rice prices dropped on most markets, suggesting that better off consumers may have increased consumption of rice relative to maize. Vegetation, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), was light to semi-arid in most parts of the country and below normal in most of Mara and parts of other regions in the Lake Victoria basin. Pasture and browse for livestock as well as consumption of livestock products by pastoralists were reduced, but no unusual migrations and loss of animals were reported. A Household Budget Survey, published in July, compared current Tanzanian incomes to those of , revealing an increase, in real terms of 17 percent. Growth was higher in Dar es Salaam than in other places, especially the rural areas. In both cases proportions of household expenditure devoted to food declined from 69 to 61 percent between and Food Security Overview The food security conditions for crop farmers and agro-pastoralists were satisfactory in most parts of Tanzania in September. Following the recent harvest, households still have sufficient quantities of grain in storage facilities and some amounts of root and tuber crops and banana, as well, on farms. However, authorities and the media from Korogwe district (Tanga region) reported shortages of staple food crops, attributed to below normal production during The Food Security Information Team (FSIT) is preparing to visit Korogwe and other districts, reported to have food deficits, to carry out vulnerability assessments and inform their recommendations to government and other agencies involved in food security of appropriate interventions to undertake. Food security for market dependents was also satisfactory. Compared to last month, wholesale maize prices declined slightly in Sumbawanga (Southern Highlands), were stable in Dar es Salaam (East Coast), and increased modestly on other monitored markets (Figure 1). Substantial wholesale maize price variations were observed from one market to another when comparing September to last year and the five-year ( ) averages. September prices were somewhat higher in Sumbawanga, Iringa (Southern Highlands), and Dodoma (Central Tanzania), due to the influence of food grain shortages in southern Africa and low maize production in northern regions of Tanzania (Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Manyara, and Tanga) during the production season. In Mtwara (South Coast), the September price was below that of last year by 88 percent. This marks a return to near normal levels and is attributed to improvements in food FEWS NET is a USAID PROJECT managed by Chemonics International Inc. ( Fifth Floor, PPF House Tel./Fax.: P.O. Box grunyoro@fews.net Dar es Salaam Website:

2 production and availability in Mozambique s provinces bordering Tanzania (Cabo Delgado and Niassa), consequently lowering volumes of maize and other food crops traded from Tanzania to Mozambique. Figure 1: Wholesale Prices for Maize on Selected Markets in Tanzania 21,000 18,000 15,000 Average Sept Sept Aug Sept.2002 TShs per 100 kg 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 - Mtwara (S. Coast) Sumbawanga (S. Highlands) Mbeya (S. Highlands) Iringa (S. Highlands) Dodoma (Central) Dar es Salaam (E. Coast) Arusha (Northern) Shinyanga (Lake) Source of data: Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing On all key markets, wholesale prices for rice in September were below last year s prices and the five-year ( ) average price. Prices were reasonably stable, ranging from 3 percent below to 10 percent above last month s prices for some markets (Figure 2). Figure 2: Wholesale Prices for Rice on Selected Markets in Tanzania 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 TShs per 100 kg 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Average Sept Sept Aug Sept Mtwara (S. Coast) Sumbawanga (S. Highlands) Mbeya (S. Highlands) Singida (Central) Tabora (Central) Shinyanga (Lake) Mwanza (Lake) Morogoro (E. Coast) Dar es Salaam (E. Coast) Source of Data: Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing 2

3 The relative stability of maize prices, together with low rice wholesale prices, is a result of good supplies of the commodities to key markets. The prices suggest that households with good income might have increased rice consumption relative to maize consumption. Shortages of staple food crops, mainly maize and rice, were reported in some districts, such as Korogwe (Tanga region) and Same (Kilimanjaro region) in northern Tanzania. These shortages have resulted in an earlier than normal start to the increase in maize wholesale prices, relative to the trend of five-year ( ) averages (Figure 3). Figure 3: Wholesale Maize Prices for Moshi and Tanga Markets Average Wholesale Price of Maize in Moshi Market Average Wholesale Price of Maize in Tanga Market Average Average Tsh per 100kg Tsh per 100kg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing 2. Vegetation and Pastoral Food Security Vegetation conditions for the third dekad of September, as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), are shown in Figure 4. During this period vegetation was very-light to light in most parts of the country, while semi-arid conditions prevailed in a few areas in the north (parts of Arusha and Shinyanga regions) and medium to heavy vegetation conditions prevailed in the east (along the coast) and near Lakes Nyasa and Tanganyika. Compared to the long term average, the Lake Victoria basin, including Mara, north-western parts of Shinyanga, south-eastern areas of Kagera, and western Mwanza regions experienced dry season of below normal vegetation. Vegetation was above normal in the south-western parts and was normal in the rest of the country. Figure 4: Current NDVI for September Current (2002) Legend Current minus long term average Legend Source: NASA, USGS 3

4 The light and semi arid vegetation conditions that prevailed in most pastoral areas reflect diminished availability of pasture and water and subsequently reduced growth, reproduction, and milk production by livestock. Consequently, the contribution of livestock to both food and cash income for households in these areas was also reduced. To mitigate the situation, livestock keepers grazed and watered their animals at distant locations, as they normally do during periods of drought. However, no unusual migrations were reported. The dry season has had different food security implications for different kinds of livestock keepers. Agro-pastoralists (mostly in the Lake Victoria Basin and Southern Highland regions), whose diets include a large contribution of food crops, were able to maintain their food consumption and food security levels as they have sufficient stocks of grains from their recent food crop harvests. For pastoralists, especially in Arusha and Manyara regions (northern Tanzania), food security is likely to have declined during September because, in such situations, pastoralist households have less livestock products to consume and sell to earn cash income for purchasing other foodstuffs. Despite the government s reiteration of their advice to pastoralists to reduce sizes of their livestock herds, which would reduce pressure on pasture and production costs and improve incomes, pastoralists have remained reluctant to sell their livestock. 3. The Household Budget Survey A recently released report on the Household Budget Survey (HBS) conducted in shows that presently, as in , agriculture is the main source of cash income, but the proportion of households depending on agriculture has dropped from 67 to 62 percent during this ten year period. Households dependence on business, wages and salaries, and remittances for cash incomes has increased (Table 1). In and at present, about 41 percent of households have depended specifically on food crops to earn cash income. To ensure that food security is maintained following a drop in the ratio of farmers to market dependents, government should put in place strategies to increase farmer productivity and real incomes of market dependents. Improving farmers access to and use of Table 1: Distribution of Main Sources of Household income in Tanzania Source of cash income Percentage of population Sale of food crops Sale of livestock & products Sale of cash crops Business Cash wages or salaries Other casual cash earnings Cash remittances Fishing Others Total Source: National Bureau of Statistics Tanzania, Household Budget Survey, better and more affordable technologies, such as oxenization and high yielding seed varieties with tolerance to pests and diseases, can improve their productivity. Better access to credit can help both farmers and households engaged in business to improve performance of their activities. The same report disclosed that between and , household consumption rose in real terms by around 17 percent. However, the consumption gap between Dar es Salaam and rural areas widened with increases registering at 47 percent and 11 percent, 4

5 respectively. Over the past 10 years, average monthly expenditures in Dar es Salaam rose from TShs 14,900 to TShs 22,000, while rising more modestly in rural areas, from TShs 7,600 to TShs 8,500 (Table 2). Table 2: Mean Expenditure per Capita by Category of Item (Nominal Figures) for 28 Days Category of Expenditure DSM Other Urban Rural Mainland Tanzania DSM Other Urban Rural Mainland Tanzania Foodpurchased 9,644 7,126 2,517 3,479 10,301 7,114 3,118 4,085 Food non ,926 2, ,378 2,051 purchased Sub Total 9,733 8,025 5,443 5,996 10,668 7,989 5,492 6,137 Durables 1,437 1, ,565 1, Medical Education Other non 3,429 3,080 1,452 1,763 7,172 4,118 2,012 2,602 durables Sub Total 5,159 4,706 2,216 2,687 11,280 6,388 3,046 3,984 Total 14,893 12,731 7,659 8,683 21,948 14,377 8,538 10,121 Source: National Bureau of Statistics Tanzania, Household Budget Survey Note: The values are inflated to prices Computation of statistics from table 2 shows a considerable decline in food expenditure as proportions of total household expenditure in both the urban and rural areas. Overall, the proportion dropped from 69 to 61 percent between the two HBSs, but the proportion of household expenditure spent on food is higher in rural areas than in Dar es Salaam. This indicates that poverty remains overwhelmingly rural: 87 percent of the poor are living in rural areas. Also, above average poverty levels were noted for households that depend on agriculture, particularly those relying on sale of livestock. It is probably for this reason that rural households tend to depend on a wider variety of income sources than urban households; diversification remains an important way by which rural households try to raise their incomes. The proportion of Tanzanians that fall below the food poverty line, defined as the minimum spending per person needed to provide 2,200 calories a day for one month based on the foods consumed by the poorest 50 percent of the population, decreased from 22 to 19 percent over the past 10 years. The proportion of Tanzanians who fall below the basic needs poverty line, which is the food poverty line adjusted to incorporate other basic needs such as clothes, decreased from 39 to 36 percent..the report, however, stated that the decline is not considered large enough to be statistically significant. 4. Food Security Outlook for the Coming 3 Months The food security outlook for the coming three months is good. This is evidence by ample grain stocks held on farm, by traders, and by the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR). In addition, there are some amounts of root and tuber crops and banana on farmers fields. However, wholesale prices for maize on monitored markets in the major maize producing regions (including Rukwa, Mbeya, and Iringa in the Southern Highlands, and Dodoma in Central Tanzania) were higher this month than their five-year ( ) averages. Also, on some other markets such as Kilimanjaro and Tanga (northern Tanzania), wholesale 5

6 prices for maize have already started to rise at earlier dates relative to their five-year average trends. If these trends continue and are coupled with limited opportunity for market dependents to diversify their sources of income, food security may be jeopardized. Facing higher food prices, the market dependents might have to reduce the quantities they buy or switch to cheaper alternatives. Also, at rising prices, farmers can be stimulated to sell more to earn cash, compromising their near future food requirements. The government and other stakeholders, particularly the institutions forming the Food Security Information Team (FSIT), are monitoring the trends closely to enable timely formulation and implementation of appropriate interventions if threats to food security are noted. In the long run, the price increases may have a positive effect on food security if they encourage farmers to invest more in agricultural production, especially at the moment when preparations for planting are going on in many parts of Tanzania. Pastoral food security is expected to improve in the near future following the start of rains this month, which will improve availability of water and pasture and subsequently growth of livestock, reproduction, and milking. 6