TANZANIA Food Security Outlook January to June 2011

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1 Key Messages At a national level, food security is generally satisfactory and markets across the country are adequately supplied following 2010 harvests that exceeded the national food requirement by 12 percent. Prices are increasing, and though this is typical for this time of year, they remain above the recent five-year average. Figure1. Current estimated food security outcomes, January, 2011 The Rural Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) conducted by FIST during August 2010, projected that 1,253,500 people across the country would be moderately food insecure between January and March. In addition, lean periods that normally end in December (bimodal areas) and March (unimodal) are likely to persist longer than usual following poor performance of 2010/2011 vuli seasonal rains in bimodal areas and a delayed start of musimu rains in unimodal areas. Food security is expected to improve after April, though localized food insecurity will persist in some northern and central zones. For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Most likely food security scenario January 2011 through June 2011 Source: FEWS NET At a national level, food security is satisfactory following good harvests from last season, which exceeded the country s food requirement by 12 percent. Traders sourced and stocked adequate food supplies from surplus producing areas and are continuing to release their stocks in markets. All markets across the country have adequate supplies. Despite the good harvest, the lean period is currently at its peak level and rural household stocks have diminished. After depletion of household stocks from own production, many households are sourcing their food requirement from markets. This has increased demand for major staple foods, mainly maize, bean and rice. Food prices are increasing, and though this is typical FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Tanzania FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in 1717 H St NW Tel: this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Washington DC Tanzania@fews.net Agency for International Development or the United States Government. info@fews.net

2 for this time of year, they have remained above the five-year average in most markets, most likely due to high fuel prices and the below-normal 2010/2011 vuli harvests in bimodal areas. The Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) conducted by the Food Security Information Team (FSIT) in August 2010, indicated that 1,253,500 people would be moderately food insecure from January to March. This population is distributed throughout the country and does not constitute a majority of poor households in any given district. However, since this assessment was conducted, seasonal performance has been poor in a number of key areas and the number of food insecure people is likely higher than estimated in August. The 2010/2011 vuli season harvests, which normally replenish stocks, and mark the end of the lean period in bimodal areas, have been below normal. Vuli season production contributes about 30 percent of annual crop production in bimodal areas and 18 percent of the total national crop production. Below normal vuli harvests have been caused by the poor start and erratic performance of seasonal rains in many parts of the bimodal areas, likely related to the ongoing La Niña phenomenon. These poor rains damaged crops, necessitated replanting of maize and bean crops around Lake Victoria areas, and limited crop planting in northern and northeastern zones. Poor vuli performance also reduced the vigor of perennial crops (bananas, coffee, and fruits) in bimodal highland areas and limited rejuvenation of pasture and replenishment of water points in pastoral areas, thus limiting recovery of pastoral conditions in the northern and northeastern areas. Reduced crop production has limited agricultural casual labor opportunities, reducing incomes of casual labor dependent households and constraining their access to food non-food needs. In unimodal areas, the start of the msimu rains has been delayed. The September RVA recommended free food aid and subsidized grain distribution to the food insecure population between November and January. However, food aid distribution by the government has been delayed. As a result, poor household food access has been highly constrained, with impacts on dietary diversity and the quantity of food consumed. Negative coping strategies like excessive charcoal making, sale of productive livestock, and reduction of number and quality of meals are also more prominent. Currently there are food deficit in many localized areas within the country. Although the better-off and middle-income households continue to accee their food needs, poor households, especially in many parts of bimodal areas and central parts are moderately food insecure. Looking ahead, the most-likely scenario for January to June 2011 is based on the following key assumptions: The lean periods that were supposed to end in December (bimodal areas) and in April (unimodal areas), are likely to extend longer than usual due to poor vuli season performance. Ongoing Vuli food and crop harvests will be below average. The second half of the Msimu rains will start late. Given the likely persistence of a La Niňa phenomenon until at least April, the March-May masika rains are expected to start late. In the absence of a clear forecast, it is assumed that they will perform normally after starting, but that overall rainfall totals will be below-average Seasonal declines in food prices, which normally begin in May, are expected to be delayed Over the coming months, the food insecure population is likely to be concentrated in four primary areas: the Singida-Dodoma, Sorghum, Bulrush, Millet, Sunflower, and Livestock livelihood zone (Manyoni, Mpwapwa, Kongwa, Chamwino, Bahi), the Northern and Southern Maasai Pastoral livelihood zones (Longido, Monduli Ngorongoro, Simanjiro, Kiteto, Handeni, Siha, Same, and parts of Meatu districts), and the Kagera Kigoma-Mara banana, coffee and beans livelihood zone Bukoba, Muleba, Rorya) (Figure 2). Households in the Northern and Southern Masaai Pastoral livelihood zones depend on livestock (mainly shoats) and livestock product sales to earn income to purchase food and non-food items. The Northern Zone is mainly in the bimodal rainfall regime while the southern zone is mainly in the unimodal rainfall regime. During the vuli season pastoralists in Southern zone normally migrate to northern zone in search of pastures and water. These livelihood zones were seriously affected by an extended drought from 2007 to 2009, which affected pasture, water availability, and led to high levels of animal mortality, reducing herd sizes. The 2009 vuli and 2009/2010 masika rainy seasons were adequate and pasture and water availability improved. However, the 2010/2011-vuli rains that were expected to start in October 2010 began two months late and were poorly distributed once they did begin. Poor performance of vuli season has resulted in deteriorated livestock body conditions, limited milk production, and declining livestock to cereal terms of trade. The poor pastoral conditions are also likely to affect the livestock reproductive cycle, thus hampering livelihood recovery in both zones. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 Given the likely persistence of a La Niňa phenomenon until at least April, the March-May masika rains are expected to start late, shortening the season. Though rains are likely to be normal once they begin, reduced rainfall totals are expected, leading to depleted rangelands and abnormal livestock migration, further limiting milk availability and consumption in pastoral households and driving increased conflict between livestock keepers and crop farmers in some areas. Normally pastoralists from Kenya move into these areas in search of pasture when there is drought. Given current conditions in Kenya, this is likely to occur beginning in February. This would result in overgrazing and livestock concentration in the few areas where water and pasture are available, such as the peripheries of Tarangire, Serengeti, and Ngorongoro national parks, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks, both from overcrowding and contact with wild animals. Figure 2. Affected livelihood zones Throughout the outlook period, better-off households in this zone will meet their food and non-food needs through sales of Source: FEWS NET shoats, which are better able to withstand drought than other species, and will not face any acute food insecurity. Middle-income households will likely be able to meet their food requirements but will have trouble meeting some non-food needs during outlook period due to the reduction in animals available for sale. Between January and March, poor households who lost their livestock and those without animals will continue to work for wealthier households or migrate to urban areas in search of employment. Given the likely increase in food prices, these households will have trouble meeting food and non-food needs and will be highly food insecure, and in need of assistance, until the late start of masika rains in April. After April, conditions will improve and poor households will move from highly to moderately food insecure. The Singida-Dodoma, Sorghum, Bulrush, Millet, Sunflower, and Livestock livelihood zone is a dry lowland zone that receives mm of rain per year. This is often enough for households to grow food and cash crops, though households in this zone also depend on livestock as a main source of income. Better-off households earn most of their income from selling shoats and poultry to traders at the village level. Better-off households may also earn portions of their annual income from selling cash crops like sesame, groundnuts, and sunflowers. The amount of food produced by poor households does not usually sustain them for the entire year. Poor households are therefore reliant upon food purchases that are funded through paid work in rural areas or nearby towns. Food security and livelihood stability for this zone are largely dependent upon rainfall. Currently poor households in this zone are experiencing moderate food insecurity following poor 2010 crop harvests that resulted from below-average and unevenly distributed 2009/10 msimu rains. Increased food prices have also increased household expenditure on food, making it difficult for many households to meet non-food needs. This has triggered excessive selling of livestock and the employment of other coping strategies (such as charcoal making and selling of firewood) to meet household food requirements. Increased charcoal making and firewood sales will increase market supplies of these products and reduce their prices, thus reducing the effectiveness of this coping strategy. This is likely to trigger employment of other negative coping strategies such as disposing off productive assets, like farm implements, which will affect future production and food security. The delayed start of 2010/2011 msimu rains is likely to shorten the December-April crop-growing period and result in reduced 2011-crop production, reducing food availability and limiting incomes from crop sales. Between January and March, following the typical lean season in this area, below normal food stocks will increase household s dependence on markets and this increased market demand could affect food prices. During this period, betteroff households will continue to meet their food and non-food needs through sales of shoats and poultry. Middle-income households will slip into moderate food insecurity after exhausting low-cost coping strategies, like increased poultry sales. Poor households will be obliged to rely on charcoal and firewood sales and some will migrate to other zones and urban Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 centers for casual labor. Poor households will have difficulty meeting their basic food needs will most likely be moderately to highly food insecure. Figure 3. Most likely food security scenario, January - March 2011 Between April and June, the green cereal harvest and the sale and consumption of vegetables will reduce food insecurity. Better-off households will continue to meet their food and nonfood needs through sales of shoats and poultry. Middle-income households will start recovering and their dietary diversity will improve. For poor households, the green harvests will provide some crops but they will rely primarily on laboring for wealthier households in order to meet food needs. However, income will be limited and meeting food needs will remain difficult. The Kagera-Kigoma-Mara Banana, Coffee, and Beans Livelihood Zone is a surplus-producing livelihood zone that normally receives between 1,000 and 1,200mm of rain annually. Bananas are the main staple food followed by other minor crops, mainly cassava, yams, and potatoes. Beans are the main source of protein, while coffee has been the main cash crop in this zone, though as of late, bananas and beans have also served as important source of cash to many farmers. Household crop production is adequate to support consumption for the majority of the year and serve as the main source of annual income. Livestock sales supplement cash earned from selling coffee, bananas, and beans. Poorer households sell their labor to wealthier households in exchange for cash, but the contribution of wages to their annual income is less important than that of crop and livestock sales. Most labor opportunities are found in the rural areas and only a small number of laborers migrate to towns in search of casual labor. Market access in this zone is good as road networks link the zone to larger trading centers. Figure 4. Most likely food security scenario, April June, 2011 However, in the eastern Kagera region portion of this zone, bananas have been highly affected by pests and diseases, mainly Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW), panama and banana weevils. The continued spread of these diseases and pests are pose a significant threat to food security. In addition, this zone experienced poor 2010 vuli rains (the area s main crop growing season). Poor seasonal performance is uncommon, and it has reduced January harvests of beans and maize and affected coffee flowering that normally starts in October. Reduced For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: coffee bean harvests are expected in June Other perennial crops (e.g. bananas and fruits) have also been affected. Reduced crop production will most likely extend lean period and limit availability of the main protein source (beans) and cash from bean sales throughout the outlook period. Reduced banana production will result in many households turning to markets to purchase food to supplement their own produced food through May. This will constrain food access for lowincome households. Reduced purchasing power will coincide with atypically high food prices. Also, field reports have indicated that significant number of households lost their animals from poor pasture and diseases, exacerbated by extended dryness, during October December thus further reducing income source from milk, manure and livestock sales options. Wealthy and middle-income categories are expected to continue to access adequate food from their own farms given the large amount of land owned. Between January and March, poor households will access food from the limited vuli season harvests. However, between April and May poor households will need to supplement their own produced food with market Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 purchases and due to limited income from reduced banana and beans production and limited agricultural labor opportunities, this will be more difficult than usual. Limited access to food and non-food needs is likely to lead into adverse coping strategies including sales of productive assets (farms land, farm implements, firewood and mulching grass). However from June non-cereal crops (cassava, yams, sweet potatoes) harvests, will improve both food stocks and labor demand. Table 1: Less likely events over the next six months that could change the above scenarios Area Event Impact on food security outcomes Northern Maasai Pastoral livelihood zones Disease outbreak Will result in worsening animal conditions and productivity Singida-Dodoma, Sorghum, Bulrush, Millet, Sunflower, and Livestock livelihood zone If the government will enforce bylaws to restrict charcoal and firewood making and sales The incomes earned by poor households will be affected and their food access will be limited. Kagera-Kigoma-Mara Banana, Coffee, and Beans Livelihood Zone If masika rains start normally, and are well distributed Food security conditions will improve. All categories of households will be able to access food normally. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5