Factors affecting agricultural production

Transcription

1 Annex 11 Factors affecting agricultural production Agricultural production, including food and other crops and livestock husbandry, is determined by the interaction of farmers with: natural resources - biophysical framework of soils, water, temperature, flora and fauna; traditional practices; government policies (e.g. land tenure, marketing, animal welfare, labour relations); international trade agreements; public opinion and concerns; environmental fluctuations. The above interactions result in farming systems. A farming system may be defined as a combination of elements in recognisable proportions, which, over a predetermined period, produces an identifiable agricultural product/s of an anticipated standard in anticipated quantities. Table I offers a comparison between the components of two extreme farming systems. Table 1: Typical Components of and Agribusiness Farming Systems System Land Subsistence + near subsistence Multi-product Vulnerable Risk averse Traditional Low input / low output User rights based Unsurveyed Tribal / state land ownership Agribusiness Commercial Single product Protected Risk taking Progressive High input / high output Owned or leased Surveyed Secure tenure Marginal Structurally deficit (often) Favoured Area size suited to enterprise 277

2 Labour Intensive Non-mechanised Agribusiness Extensive Highly mechanised Informal skills Formal training Labour Family Non-family Planting material Land races Composites Carry-over seeds Untreated High yielding varieties; high response varieties Hybrids Purchased yearly Treated with seed dressing Water Seasonal - insecure High potential areas or irrigated fields - secure Credit No credit or informal credit only Wide range credit available Services Rare; government only Public / private extension Markets Surplus sold on local markets Post-harvest sales No added value Produce entirely for sale Controlled marketing strategy Quality control Table 1 shows that in most cases, the components of the two systems are at opposite ends of the component spectrum. Therefore, although in any system the quantity of production is essentially area x yield per unit area, the type of system affects dramatically the nature of the work required to obtain an accurate assessment of the crop produced. The panel below compares crop assessment approaches appropriate to the agri-businesses of pre-independence and post-independence Outer Mongolia with the approach to assessing the production of a peasant-based economy of a similar size (c. 1 million ha). Assessments of farming systems that are predominantly agribusiness or peasant-based In pre-independence Outer Mongolia, all agricultural production came from less than 50 state collectives (vertically-integrated agri-businesses) of some 20,000 ha each. Such collectives were staffed with a cadre of resident Subject Matter Specialists (SMSs) who were conversant with every aspect of production/processing and the factors affecting the components of performance. The collectives were fully-recorded in every detail and data were accessible to authorized missions. Consequently, CF- SAMs had only to audit the data already collected and processed to obtain a very reasonable understanding of the annual national production of crops. Following independence, the collectives were privatised and, during the first 3 years, the 50 collectives were fragmented with the result that the number of independent units increased to around 500 private enterprises of about ha each. The SMSs left most of the units and farm recording was abandoned in most places. Crop assess- 278

3 ments thus became a much more complex task as basic data regarding area, yield and the factors affecting both area and yield were no longer immediately available. Nevertheless, the relatively small number of production units on about 1 million ha, compared to a peasant farming economy, still enables CFSAMs to visit all, or a least a substantial proportion of, farms and obtain production estimates by measuring areas and sampling yields in each enterprise. By contrast, a similar area farmed in a peasant-based economy necessitates estimating performance of some 500,000 independent units, each with their own components and perspectives. Contrary to general perceptions, peasant systems of agriculture, which determine the level of national production in most developing countries, are influenced by a complicated network of factors as shown in Figure 1, below, of which half are outside the control of the farmer. A basic understanding of the inter-relations between factors affecting production is an essential prerequisite for an accurate assessment of production. Assessment procedures need to take into consideration any disruption or disturbance to the factors involved in the inter-acting network shown in Figure 1 when looking for variations from expected levels of production based on data from the available time-series. The most direct source of information regarding factors affecting agriculture are the farm-families themselves, the ones who actually do the work. Their knowledge of the season in their own localities is essential for each team to obtain. This may be through interviews using a common checklist as outlined in the next section. Interviews, then, may be considered as the building blocks of qualitative data but they need mortar to hold them together. Such binding material should come through the team s own continuous observations of the rural situation, formalized through the simple procedure of turning every journey into a transect. ( Technical Note P1) Checklist To explain the level of food production in any one year you need to identify and, to the best of your ability, quantify the following: Fixed factors Access to land Household labour availability Season s rainfall both quantity and quality Irrigation possibilities Variable factors Credit, access and cost Mechanical power, spare parts access, fuel availability. Draught animal health and availability 279

4 Seed availability and quality; actual planting times. Fertilizer use, availability and cost Migratory pest challenges and responses - army worm - locusts - quelea quelea - Non-migratory pest attack - movement from norm - control, both traditional and pesticide use Fungal disease challenges- seed dressing Weed challenges- weeding regimes and herbicide use. Natural disasters: floods, landslides, hail Civil disturbances: wars, threats of wars, raiding/theft Population disturbance - settlements, resettlements - political pressures to move Market control measures - local taxes - restrictions on movement of grain or traders. 280

5 Figure 1 Main factors influencing enterprise choice and productivity of a peasant farmer Factors affected negatively by unrest/conflict are marked * Climate Credit* Availability* of inputs Cultural and Sociological* constraints Crop Yields Quality and type of land Total and seasonal farm labour Availability* family size Subsistence needs Offfarmwork Opportunities* Community obligations Size of holding Hired and exchange labour supply Access to Firewood* Price ratios Human population Fuel needs Manure produced Access to and use of Communal* grazing Legend: Factors essentially beyond the control of the smallholder Factors essentially under the control of the smallholder Crop rotation Enterprise choice Draught power Livestock holdings Consumer purchases & debts Taxes, tithes and rents Post-harvest Prices* Cash income Trading acumen Subsistence Total farm production Expansion/ contraction of livestock holdings Animal feed supply Disease Livestock productivity 281