Yvette Everingham 1 & Sarah Park 2

Transcription

1 The value of agrometeorological information the Australian sugar industry for Yvette Everingham 1 & Sarah Park 2 1 James Cook University 2 CSIRO yvette.everingham@jcu.edu.au sarah.park@csiro.au

2 Australian Sugar Industry

3 The Australian Sugar Industry 2nd largest export crop >$1 billion export income p.a. 500,000 ha (harvested Jun-Nov) approx 6,500 farmers varying soils, management, climate 2100 km coastline

4 The Australian Sugar Industry Mean annual rainfall 4000 mm Mean annual rainfall 1000 mm

5

6 The Australian Sugar Industry Farming and Harvesting Milling Marketing

7 Farm water management dam construction planting ploughout/replants herbicide application nitrogen management to meet reef water quality objectives crop size

8 Farm Harvesting & Transport start/finish harvest season scheduling paddocks crop size

9 Farm Harvesting & Transport Milling start/finish season maintenance planning labour schedules crop size

10 Farm Harvesting & Transport Milling Marketing crop size storage shipping

11 Farleigh rainfall (mm) planting mill prep harvesting fertilising jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

12 strong ENSO signature along Sugar Strip

13

14 ENSO Decadal Interdecadal Multidecadal IPO warm (positive) phase cool (negative) phase Source: Meinke et al. Journal of Climate (2005)

15 ENSO Decadal Interdecadal Multidecadal Climate Change IPO warm (positive) phase cool (negative) phase Source: Meinke et al. Journal of Climate (2005)

16 Med ian 134 mm Australian Sugar Industry Agrometeorological Information There have been 24 years when the SOI Phase at the end of Aug was Consistently Positive (black bars). In 18 of those years rainfall during Sep-Nov exceeded the median ( 134 mm) The chance that rainfall during Sep-Nov will exceed the median = 18 / 24 = 75 % (Blue) The chance that rainfall during Sep-Nov will not exceed the median = 6 / 24 = 25 % (Red) Sep-Nov Rainfall at Macknade Year

17 Table 5.3: Decision support tools and sources of information for managing climate variability that have been specifically developed or applied to the Australian sugarcane industry. Growing Harvesting Milling Marketing Source: Park et al. Sugar Cane in Climate Change and Adaptation

18

19 Water Sense

20

21

22 Med ian 134 mm value Australian Sugar Industry Agrometeorological Information There have been 24 years when the SOI Phase at the end of Aug was Consistently Positive (black bars). In 18 of those years rainfall during Sep-Nov exceeded the median ( 134 mm) The chance that rainfall during Sep-Nov will exceed the median = 18 / 24 = 75 % (Blue) The chance that rainfall during Sep-Nov will not exceed the median = 6 / 24 = 25 % (Red) Sep-Nov Rainfall at Macknade Year

23

24 by unconventially planting on a ridge instead of a furrow I saved $80,000 in one season only 5 phase SOI system valued at $1.7m

25 by unconventially planting on a ridge instead of a furrow I saved $80,000 we have used it [water sense] quite effectively after this last rainfall event to help prioritise those blocks that we irrigate first in one season only 5 phase SOI system valued at $1.7m

26 by unconventially planting on a ridge instead of a furrow I saved $80,000 we have changed our fertiliser practice we have used it [water sense] quite effectively after this last rainfall event to help prioritise those blocks that we irrigate first in one season only 5 phase SOI system valued at $1.7m

27 by unconventially planting on a ridge instead of a furrow I saved $80,000 if it looks like an El Nino year you can make sure your dams are full before the season starts we have changed our fertiliser practice we have used it [water sense] quite effectively after this last rainfall event to help prioritise those blocks that we irrigate first in one season only 5 phase SOI system valued at $1.7m

28 by unconventially planting on a ridge instead of a furrow I saved $80,000 if it looks like an El Nino year you can make sure your dams are full before the season starts we have changed our fertiliser practice I ve gone to one [farming system], which is aimed at the La Nina we have used it [water sense] quite effectively after this last rainfall event to help prioritise those blocks that we irrigate first in one season only 5 phase SOI system valued at $1.7m

29 by unconventially planting on a ridge instead of a furrow I saved $80,000 if it looks like an El Nino year you can make sure your dams are full before the season starts we have changed our fertiliser practice I ve gone to one [farming system], which is aimed at the La Nina we have changed our outlook of how we plan farming we have used it [water sense] quite effectively after this last rainfall event to help prioritise those blocks that we irrigate first in one season only 5 phase SOI system valued at $1.7m

30

31 oh well it s an El Nino year we won t spend money on tipper bins you know it can sort of push you one way or another.

32 oh well it s an El Nino year we won t spend money on tipper bins you know it can sort of push you one way or another. In the past there has been a lot of guess work on the irrigation side of things. You just think this block looks like it needs a drink now, whereas now I m probably taking a bit more time and attention into how much water we are using. I am starting to trust watersense more.

33 oh well it s an El Nino year we won t spend money on tipper bins you know it can sort of push you one way or another. The nitrogen modelling was very fascinating In the past there has been a lot of guess work on the irrigation side of things. You just think this block looks like it needs a drink now, whereas now I m probably taking a bit more time and attention into how much water we are using. I am starting to trust watersense more.

34 oh well it s an El Nino year we won t spend money on tipper bins you know it can sort of push you one way or another. I was just fascinated with the different responses of the soil types The nitrogen modelling was very fascinating In the past there has been a lot of guess work on the irrigation side of things. You just think this block looks like it needs a drink now, whereas now I m probably taking a bit more time and attention into how much water we are using. I am starting to trust watersense more.

35 oh well it s an El Nino year we won t spend money on tipper bins you know it can sort of push you one way or another. I was just fascinated with the different responses of the soil types The nitrogen modelling was very fascinating Take prediction into account when making herbicide recommendations In the past there has been a lot of guess work on the irrigation side of things. You just think this block looks like it needs a drink now, whereas now I m probably taking a bit more time and attention into how much water we are using. I am starting to trust watersense more.

36 If the MJO was to pass over just at the start of the harvest, I would put extra shipping contingencies in place for the pickup of sugar. Look at an extra 300 hours wet weather stops in the mill & start crushing 2 weeks earlier. harvest lower lying paddocks earlier in season

37 Value of Agrometeorological Information - Summary Improved practices to deliver enhanced economic, environmental and social benefits Benefits have been delivered across the industry value chain Increased knowledge of system and confidence in planning activities Researchers have gained an improved understanding of the participatory development process

38 SRDC & MCVP Acknowledgements Industry coordinators and case study participants CSR BSES Canegrowers Australian Sugar Milling Companies Sugar Insite Emma Jakku

39 Sugar CO 2 Temp 2030 up 1.7 o C 2070 up 5.2 o C Rainfall ( Poss North summer) ENSO more drying with El Nino Sea-level 9-88cm Cyclone intensity Off-set Rainfall intensity Sugarcane industry Growers Harvesters Transport & milling Terminals Increase / decrease in yield Source: Park & Attard, ASSCT (2005)

40 Magnet Chance of exceeding median rainfall based on the SOI phase IMMEDIATELY BEFORE the rainfall period 90 82% Blip? 78% 76% 65% 67% HIGHER RAFINALL ODDS 60 % Chance AUTUMN PREDICITABILITY BARRIER Example: When the SOI phase is negative at the end of Aug, there is a 25% chance of exceeding median Sep-Nov rainfall. JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM Planting Harvesting 28% 25% Fertilising 14% 25% 14% NORMAL RAFINALL ODDS LOWER RAFINALL ODDS SOI phase Immediately before Rainfall Negative Positive Falling Rising Near Zero